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Severe Weather Thread - New England


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Areas affected...portions of northern NJ...southern NY...CT...and MA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151904Z - 152100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across parts
   of far northern NJ/southern NY into MA. A new severe thunderstorm
   watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of increasing severe potential exists
   from far northern NJ into MA ahead of ongoing strong/severe
   convection further to the north/northwest. This corridor has
   experienced strong heating today, with temperatures mostly in the
   mid to upper 80s amid 65-70 F dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE values
   around 1500-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows a broad area of
   agitated CU, with stronger vertical development across parts of
   southern NY/northern NJ as well as near the MA/VT/NH border.
   Stronger ascent will remain north of the area, so it is unclear if
   any storms will develop ahead of the slowly east/northeastward
   moving bands of convection further to the northwest. However, a
   southeastward-advancing outflow boundary is noted from Delaware to
   Rensselaer Counties in southeast NY and may provide enough focus for
   additional development across/moving into the MCD area. Vertical
   shear does decrease with southward extent across New England, but
   effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kts is more than sufficient
   to maintain organized cells/clusters in a moderately unstable
   airmass. As such, a severe threat could spread south of WW 501 and
   WW 502 in the next couple of hours and a new watch may be needed.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just got destroyed at the ski area.  Trees down.

Velocity data showing some 50+ mph downburst on the east slope.



The Mansfield Summit station finally updated from the past hour.

Check out that 5 minute increase. 

2:10pm it's gusting near 30mph, and then 2:15pm reading is gusting near 80mph.  There's the downburst.



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68/63  Light thunderstorm in progress

Line of storms weakened significantly just west of me.  Some wind gusts to 20mph.  Light rain.  About .06"  still raining and many more lighter echoes to the west.  I will take all the water that Mother Nature gives me.  Been quite dry since August 1

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