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Severe Weather Thread - New England


TalcottWx
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Valid 271801Z - 271930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western
   and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent
   areas will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of
   convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line
   extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from
   FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line
   has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract,
   the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase
   in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in
   instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line.
   Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus
   and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of
   the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in
   fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts
   as these storms continue eastward.

   Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of
   the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent
   trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of
   eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and
   northern CT.
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33 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:
Valid 271801Z - 271930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western
   and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent
   areas will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of
   convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line
   extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from
   FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line
   has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract,
   the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase
   in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in
   instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line.
   Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus
   and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of
   the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in
   fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts
   as these storms continue eastward.

   Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of
   the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent
   trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of
   eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and
   northern CT.

Damage 

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I'm not totally sure how far east the severe threat will hold. There is more than enough dynamical support, however, instability is lacking due to poor mid-level lapse rates and low dewpoints. The wind threat is thriving off of dry low-level air (large Td) and steep low-level lapse rates. 

However, models do show some theta-e pooling which may increase dewpoints a bit through the remainder of the afternoon and we continue to have good dynamical support with decent height falls. There are also indications this line could form a cold pool somewhat steepening the lapse rates and bumping instability a bit. Not sure how far south in CT this gets though...may be more closer to the Pike or just south

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