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Severe Weather Thread - New England


TalcottWx
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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Not really because guidance hasn't really looked impressive enough but 12z guidance has come in a bit better so I would think we see a marginal with the 1730z update. 

Yeah it doesn't look too impressive, but the s/w and wind field are somewhat respectable anyway. Hopefully modeled dews are a bit low because there's some upside

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Looks like some storms heading toward northern VT in a little bit, nothing severe from the looks of it.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Isolated/scattered thunderstorms have
developed over southern Ontario and Quebec this afternoon in
response to a cold front moving southward through the area. This
activity will slowly drift southward as well, moving across the St
Lawrence Valley through the afternoon and eventually pushing
eastward across the remainder of northern NY into VT late this
evening. With steep low level lapse rates, some of the more
robust cells could produce locally gusty winds as they pass
through, particularly in the St Lawrence Valley owing to the
more optimal time of day. Further east, the convection will move
through after peak heating and while thunder will be possible,
gusty winds will not be as likely.

 

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From GYX afternoon AFD:

A glace to the Northwest shows what`s to come. The thickest portion
of the haze ends at the St. Lawrence valley and just behind it
convection is beginning to fire ahead of another short
wave/cold front just starting to drop into southern Quebec.
Timing out this boundary, we`ve still got most of the afternoon
to go in the hot haze before any of the convection can reach the
US/Canada border, which should occur around sunset. This
morning`s sounding out of Maniwaki shows a region of steep lapse
rates around 700mb which should help to increase instability.
That said, there is also quite a bit of dry air aloft. Overall
it`s a marginal environment for severe storms, but some gusty
winds can`t be ruled out in Northwestern Maine late this
evening.

Well behind the front we have much drier air moving in but we`ll
need it to get here first. While the northern parts of NH and
western Maine may see that benefit tonight the Maine coast will
likely wait out almost until sunrise, and thus continued fog
overnight along the midcoast is expected.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday a second stronger short wave will push through the
region. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to
especially the southern Maine and NH south of the White
mountains. Forecast soundings suggest some marginal severe
storms are possible, with gusty winds being the main threat.
Have kept a mention of gusty winds in for the highest PoP.

Looks like another "leapfrog" front, that reaches our area too late then resumes next day to our south.  We're a bit AN for rain this month but serious convection has been eaten by the cloudiness.  Yesterday was cloudy day #14 this month, tying 2009 for the July max.  Only 2 sunny days back then so 2009 will retain the cloudiest July title, but 2021 will easily take the silver.

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44 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah it doesn't look too impressive, but the s/w and wind field are somewhat respectable anyway. Hopefully modeled dews are a bit low because there's some upside

If anything the lower dews could help support some wind damage potential due to a stronger T/Td depression...especially if llvl lapse rates remain quite steep even after sunset

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lfg 

 

 

...NY/New England...
   Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday over
   parts of western NY and/or adjoining ON, along and south of the
   front.  Activity should increase in coverage and move mostly
   eastward across central/eastern portions of NY and south-central New
   England through the afternoon, its movement aligned with an
   instability gradient and boundary-layer moist axis.  Damaging to
   locally severe wind gusts will be the main concern.  Confidence has
   increased that enough large-scale lift (related to the MCV) and
   diurnal low-level destabilization will occur to support maintenance
   of the threat eastward into New England.  The 15% wind area has been
   extended accordingly.

   Surface dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F will be common in
   the preconvective environment across the region, with minimal
   MLCINH.  Accordingly modified RAOBs and forecast soundings suggest
   that -- despite weak midlevel lapse rates -- MLCAPE around 500-1000
   J/kg will develop (locally/briefly higher), atop a reasonably
   well-mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates.  A
   roughly  unidirectional deep-layer wind profile is expected, with
   effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range.  Given the weak
   capping and progressive regime of ascent preceding the MCV, some
   cold-pool aggregation may occur in upscale growth of convection,
   enabling forward propagation to impinge on the destabilized boundary
   layer, potentially as far east as the MA and perhaps NH coastlines
   given the westerly flow that can advect favorable boundary-layer
   theta-e that far.
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