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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Edge of my seat...

If only you were are surfer. The term “fish storm” does not apply.

I’ll throw in ocean front home owner too, during Bill there were serious wash-overs and beach erosion from a storm that stayed offshore 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bill_(2009)

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It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked.    By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure -

Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments.    It's getting late in the year for those..   Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending.   As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early.

Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals.     Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho.  "Ida" was likely the main show.   MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked.    By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure -

Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments.    It's getting late in the year for those..   Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending.   As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early.

Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals.     Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho.  "Ida" was likely the main show.   MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption.

It's obviously peaked...as 8-9/10 post ERC systems have.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

8 or 9 out of 10.

oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions.

 

But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions.

 

But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked

Looked like both dry air and ERC to me.

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