Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

I had to google pre but we had several torrential down pours here today and my guess about an inch in the last 8 hours based off the flood in our garage… wish our rain gauge didn’t float away

 

26 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

PRE?

Predecessor Rain Event

In simple terms these are significant rain events to the north or northwest of a tropical system—one that’s usually recurving.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

so the higher resolution the model, the further east? Guess which one I'll be betting on

I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system.  I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards.

That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence.  If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system.  I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards.

That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence.  If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction.

i guess we'll see!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I wouldn't bet on the high-res meso-models with a tropical system.  I thought I had read at one point the physics in the global models handle tropical systems better than the mesoscale models do... but I definitely could be wrong or have it backwards.

That being said, the NHC forecasted path of Elsa hasn't moved more than 20 miles over the last 8 forecasts from them - the center of the path has been wavering between Newport and Providence.  If I were truly a betting man, I would bet on that heavy rain band being a little farther west than the HRRR's current depiction.

I think you’re going to be correct. Good call. Radar looks impressive getting ready to rotate up through here the next 3-5 hrs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...