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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it interesting that despite all these 10 to 15"  monthly rain total posts there really isn't an ongoing river-out-of-banks scenario throughout the pan -SNE region.  Other than a few incident, transient quick reponder -type tributaries - all we have to show for this 'drama' is the July anomaly of lush green lawn. Call CNN!

It shows how hard it is to actually flood this old geology.   I mean point being, what it takes to 'flood' here.   You need truly absurd things to happen to make it amazing.  Like October 1996, or May 2005 ( Merrimack), or March 2010.   ...or going further back.  1987 ..1930s...etc. They were amazing, but only just -

October '96 was a unique scenario of a TC being partially stripping away by a synoptic interaction. Reminded me on satellite of deep field Astronomy. Some doomed gravity bound star being elongated and pulled into an intake channel, this TC schmuck's guts got dumped over E and SE zones.  I think Winchester had clocked 10" in a single night in that one. 

May 2005 was extraordinary along the Merrimack.  As someone who went to school at UML and I can tell you, the specter of that visage as the water rose so high was gasping. It was certainly never seen before, personally.  I remember the 15 to 22" Pawtucket dam and how that fall- draft was no longer falling water. It had become but a surface dent like a macrocosm of water moving over a boulders in a stream? Same behavior but so much mass you don't exist.  It sort of had that creepy feel to it ... like that scene in "TItanic" in the engine room when the iron piston cinema combined with the audio presentation were so overwhelming.

March 2010 had decent snow-melt-back to snow oscillations through the antecedent months of winter. And then came March.  Actually, technically the onslaught began at the end of February, with a retrograde coastal that rained ...but not as much as the real heavy onslaught, which came in three events 4-6" each spanning three weeks, exquisitely timed with said ground release.  One spectacle that was particularly awesome,  a friend and I were en route to Mohegan Sun in CT. As Rt 13 I think it was ... cut over the top of a pine forest, from that vantage, the entire expanse of forest floor was water tumbling over rocks and old wood detritus. 

Granted, these are in general anecdotal accounting. Just off the top of one's memory.   Each one of these events took place because of exceedingly rare return rate scenarios.  Yet, not many of them did that kind of extra-special damage you see around the world.   It didn't do Europe ( recently ..) for example.  Although I'm sure some offended bloke with a town or backyard impact memory will try to lean a post content against the weight of this statement. But no. Not really.   Not saying it can't happen - but it's like our snow pack thing.  It's very difficult to exceed 36" inches for elevations below say 700 feet.  I have lived all over eastern Mass for the past 35 years, and never have seen the snow pack approach 40" ...and have only seen that once, and 36" occurred twice.  Something always happens to neuter a scenario down. 

We get our big events, but the irony is, the rarest of all, ... probably that 1953 Worcester tornado in the relative scale, is the most extraordinary thing to ever have happened here. Maybe rarer yet ...in 1755 an Earthquake estimated between 6.3 and 6.7 occurred not 20 Mi E of Cape Ann where the Merrimack Valley, which is the surface vestige of supposed dormant fault, plunges into the Atlantic abyss.  That occurred, mind you ..., 150 years before brick and mortar, steal and glass serrated city sky-lines.

 

All those events you mentioned had one thing in common, lack of vegetative uptake and ground cover to slow runoff. Hydrological modeling can now use various stages of forest land growth and antecedent conditions to predict river stages. At URI we were at the forefront of current GIS flood mapping developing tools and equations to make Hydrological modeling more accurate.  Did you know that as late as 1993 modeling did not take into account frozen ground? I was involved with Dr Art Gold in developing new technology to add frozen ground into Hydrological equations. 

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man what a nice airmass behind that front. 69/56 and breezy.

mm, almost wonder.  if we'd spared the region 3" of deluge last night, would this have been 74/52 or even 76/51 with more sun.  That's kind of high dp for that the t measure.   course, you're elevation may play roll - who knows.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm, almost wonder.  if we'd spared the region 3" of deluge last night, would this have been 74/52 or even 76/51 with more sun.  That's kind of high dp for that the t measure.   course, you're elevation may play roll - who knows.

There’s folks thinking dews are going into 30’s and low 40’s tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Before I leave at 5:00, I’ll post my station info and we’ll see how well your forecast here verifies.

Probably more likely to see the low 40s late morning with some deeper mixing. So I won’t take that bet. It’ll have to be an official ASOS dew too. Not your Davis with spring water flowing out beneath it. 

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8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Whoops.  Edited

Just bustin your balls, figured you meant today :lol:.

We’ve had passing sprinkles and showers amid some breaks of sunshine… very NW flow type day with quick moving light showers and virga.  Feels like autumn waiting for some graupel, ha.

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In and up getting the brunt of this cold. Congrats Tolland. 

You still up at the lake? I’m in the shadows already and it’s time for a hoodie. 
 

66/51 but I see LCI has dipped into the 40s already. It feels like early September. 

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