ineedsnow Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: There is nobody on this God Green Earth that would ever cheer for a cold and wet 4th weekend. GO COLD AND WET GO GO 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This weekend is Mitch and Ineedsnow approved. Those heartless and soulless bastards. 2 2 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, DomNH said: Overnight runs were pretty much a nightmare for Saturday. Almost a Memorial Day redux. Yeah the 06z NAM ...well, actually going back 6 cycles really since it came into its outer extension, have been hammering a warm season nor'easter for coastal sections. These runs have had a 19 to 22 kt sustain BL flow out of the NE with sheeting rains into the coast later Friday into Saturday morning. Oh, it's 54 F ... hence the summer variant. But 54 and mist wind with .15" per hour in the bucket rain rates for 24 hours after a week hosting 90 to 100, has way of exaggerating it's nastiness. Also (96+54)/2 = 75, ..sort of symbolic of nailing climate. F! Just commenting, not preaching: The trough in all guidance is unusually well sculpted at mid levels. It is coming down and closing off along a very tightly curved stream-line - almost like a "hook and latter" scenario in February, where a vortmax dives down unusually steeply through Ontario ( or east of climate trajectory), detonates a bomb SE of the Cape, and then capture ensues and foists the low NW over the top of the closing 500 mb. This NAM isn't precisely doing that, but in principle, it is - They typically happen when there is an abrupter mode change in the NAO, with sudden western limb height eruption that blocks and forces that. Not sure that is the same thing here - I don't see a hugely obvious -NAO ...but, it may not matter. Part of why that whole structure evolves that way is in part the extraordinary positive mid and U/A height anomaly over SW Canada. The down stream flow is really instructive off that, as a coupled mass-balancing - closed teleconnected system. It's a complete synoptic wave event to have the ridge where it is out there, with a coupled negative anomaly plumbing S over where it is. It is for these conceptual reasons ...there doesn't seem to be a lot of room to outright doubt some sort of deep trough. The NAM also notoriously has a NW bias in any scenario where cyclogen is plausible from off NJ to the GOM ... so I could see collapsing/ deteriorating toward less as Saturday nears. Probably will wait until tomorrow's guidance to do it, because it thinks it is winter and it is trying to gin up snow lover hard-ons to the most possible anticipation before it blue-balls 'em. Just kidding - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 The other aspect is half way through that trough trajectory as commented above, these models that are doing that are also dismantling/alleviated western/SW Canadian ridge heights ... dislodging that whole structure and sending it ESE; the coupled downstream trough should weaken too, but it almost seems like these steep deeply inclined trough carvers are overly conserving that trough once it is set into motion. The Euro does not do that as much - which ...I tend to think the Euro will be right. It both fits this conceptual criticism, but also...it is inside of D4 on that guidance and I believe it still owns the verification trophy in that time range - despite taking some perceptive hits over the last 2 years. Not sure the Euro being right saves much - it's still a rhea look tomorrow and early saturday no matter how we dissect it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Interesting comparing the 00z June 24 run of the Euro against the 00z July 1 day 10 ... some similarities here ... I think enough to add some credence to the repeating resonance idea - perhaps base-line return pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 NAM trying to develop a low around NYC trailing the main low that's moving into the GOM. How real that is and where it sets up is probably the difference between a bad Saturday and a toaster bath/Sarah McLachlan Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: FMH so hoping 68-70 and dry. Sometimes they are in their own little weather world there as opposed to most of the cape Nice enjoy bro you deserve it. No matter the weather the beer is always ice cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 We deserve a few crap days for that last heatwave. Too bad it's a peak summer weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Serious question. I have a tee time at 9:10 in Bridgewater tomorrow. How bad is it going to be? Will it be playable even if it’s rainy; or total wash? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Serious question. I have a tee time at 9:10 in Bridgewater tomorrow. How bad is it going to be? Will it be playable even if it’s rainy; or total wash? I'd shoot to play, but plan on a few shwrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, DomNH said: NAM trying to develop a low around NYC trailing the main low that's moving into the GOM. How real that is and where it sets up is probably the difference between a bad Saturday and a toaster bath/Sarah McLachlan Saturday. You're in the arms of the angel my friend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd shoot to play, but plan on a few shwrs. Thanks…. Wet later in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: You're in the arms of the angel my friend Becoming difficult to wishcast a non-tailpipe day. At least it'll be easy to keep the beer cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Thanks…. Wet later in the day? Tough to say, I could see some shwrs later on. These set ups with cool season synoptics mixing with warm season climo are tough to predict. Rains usually are not as wide spread as what you'd see in the cool season. Of course I could be wrong and it is pouring at tee time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 There is literally nothing meteorologically worse than a cold wet 4th of July Weekend. 2020 part deux. Just f'ing awful. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Steve , GFS would be a good Swell look Friday If that high built in NE of us and slowed Elisa down while She was in our swell window (Moving off Carolinas to SE of Cape) That is one way to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, amarshall said: There is literally nothing meteorologically worse than a cold wet 4th of July Weekend. 2020 part deux. Just f'ing awful. Aiming the arsenal at the beach houses and starting part 2 of the Brant Rock burn down? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: GO COLD AND WET GO GO Don't let some individuals change your mind' They will all be jealous on Tuesday when you post your 4th of July BBQ photos... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, amarshall said: There is literally nothing meteorologically worse than a cold wet 4th of July Weekend. 2020 part deux. Just f'ing awful. I can't decide if I want my 58F +RA on July 4 or Dec 24. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, amarshall said: There is literally nothing meteorologically worse than a cold wet 4th of July Weekend. 2020 part deux. Just f'ing awful. a warm/wet christmas eve and/or Christmas day is far worse... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: We deserve a few crap days for that last heatwave. Too bad it's a peak summer weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I can't decide if I want my 58F +RA on July 4 or Dec 24. The great thing is you don't have to choose, you will likely have both! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 A dew point of 57F right now feels like come crisp Canadian air mass in October after the past 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 At least we had a gorgeous Memorial Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Obviously THE Grinch isn't a fan of the New England area.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Brian makes an interesting anecdotal point - whether he intends to or not, by smarmy sarcasm over preferentially sodomizing Xmas vs 4th... I mean, if one has no choice, that is - Xmas ruined Mem day ruined 4th potentially ruined All these with exceeding eerie pin point accuracy as though designated for destruction. This, during a Pandemic, too - oh they're mutually exclusive horrors... That's pretty remarkable as an achievement coming from a system of supposedly true chaos, that being a whole planetary-scaled vagarious nature of the wind and the weather it contains - the 4th should go ahead and tune up your butt just so that you can own that. amazing... But, to answer that question specifically, I think of the three, Xmas is an affectation failure, where the Mem day and 4th are actually physical in nature, in addition to affectation. Brown ground on Xmas morning doesn't stop the flow of egg nog, or Pork Fried Rice if Christianity ain't your bag...either. But, the outdoor necessity for both Mem and 4th is a requirement that is uniquely violated when it rains, so of the three - I think this offers some sort of objective criteria to justify the deepest penetration of Cosby ... ( and it ain't no 'micro-Cosby', either ) The question then becomes, of the two, Mem vs 4th ...which one's bum hurts the worse. This is an additionally intriguing question. Because, the 4th being violated in church janitor's closet is made interminably worse because Mem was already screwed. It's like the 4th is worse, because of Mem - where as if these did not happen in the same calendar year, Mem would the extensive psychoanalytic PTSD counseling. So in this sense, relative to this year's uniquely and creepy unlikely result gon' happen, the 4th is clearly the charmed winner as the death by kawabunga scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Brian makes an interesting anecdotal point - whether he intends to or not, by smarmy sarcasm over preferentially sodomizing Xmas vs 4th... I mean, if one has no choice, that is - Xmas ruined Mem day ruined 4th potentially ruined All these with exceeding eerie pin point accuracy as though designated for destruction. This, during a Pandemic, too - oh they're mutually exclusive horrors... That's pretty remarkable as an achievement coming from a system of supposedly true chaos, that being a whole planetary-scaled vagarious nature of the wind and the weather it contains - the 4th should go ahead and tune up your butt just so that you can own that. amazing... But, to answer that question specifically, I think of the three, Xmas is an affectation failure, where the Mem day and 4th are actually physical in nature, in addition to affectation. Brown ground on Xmas morning doesn't stop the flow of egg nog, or Pork Fried Rice if Christianity ain't your bag...either. But, the outdoor necessity for both Mem and 4th is a requirement that is uniquely violated when it rains, so of the three - I think this offers some sort of objective criteria to justify the deepest penetration of Cosby ... The question then becomes, of the two, Mem vs 4th ...which one's bum hurts the worse. This is an additionally intriguing question. Because, the 4th being violated in church janitor's closet is made interminably worse because Mem was already screwed. It's like the 4th is worse, because of Mem - where as if these did not happen in the same calendar year, Mem would the extensive psychoanalytic PTSD counseling. This is correct. 0F or 100F, Christmas in New England is always planned as an indoor holiday. If anything, the Grinch doesn't screw up travel so it's probably actually preferable to winter wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: This is correct. 0F or 100F, Christmas in New England is always planned as an indoor holiday. If anything, the Grinch doesn't screw up travel so it's probably actually preferable to winter wx. Yeah Christmas is indoors regardless. This is much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 A day late...this was posted on the fb westborough group today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Yeah that's something I noticed here yesterday, the pink lightning. Orange too - I'm wondering if the tall heights/ thickness may have something to do with that, bending of the light in deeper atmosphere and so forth. Just a guess. I also read somewhere when I was kid that pinky-orange lightning was typically a sign that the storm was dying/ and the electrical discharges were weaker so don't emit as intense photon radiation ...so perhaps achieving the same effect? Not sure, but yesterday's thunderstorms were excessively salmon lightning. Even CG's were pinky orange in person, so that photo above is actually on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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