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July Disc/obs 2021


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On 7/10/2021 at 1:03 PM, WxUSAF said:

Up at Cunningham Falls State Park today and it’s just spectacular. Might need to move here until my AC is fixed or replaced.

Always 8 to 10 degrees cooler up there. I drive through there on my way to work each day.  

 

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On 6/2/2021 at 1:12 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

I was just goofing around looking at Accuweather's monthly forecast for my area, and after a high of 90 and 92 this Sunday and Monday, there is exactly one more day of 90+ forecasted through the end of August.  So three days of 90+ days for all of June, July, and August.  Two coming up, one in July, and none in August. :wacko:

I'll take the over.

Up to 19 days of 90+ including today. Only 16 over and about two months to go.

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22 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

That AccuWeather long range forecast is as useless as decaffeinated coffee.

....and an umbrella out here.

Yep. Fun for me to look at though. Sometimes in winter it’s the only way to see any forecasted snow, though it’s never right. 
 

I wonder what model the algorithm uses?

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32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Got a gut feeling today that thunderstorms will overperform. Expectations are in the basement so plenty of room to be wrong.

      That may very well be true, but the guidance has been pretty consistent that the threat will be northwest and north of DC Metro.       In fact, I'd say that the signal for northern MD is pretty good.

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

      That may very well be true, but the guidance has been pretty consistent that the threat will be northwest and north of DC Metro.       In fact, I'd say that the signal for northern MD is pretty good.

Our location seems very much on the edge. Fingers crossed. GFS is pretty much dry through Friday before a wet weekend.

eta…and the new SPC puts us on the southern edge of the Slight.

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12 minutes ago, high risk said:

      That may very well be true, but the guidance has been pretty consistent that the threat will be northwest and north of DC Metro.       In fact, I'd say that the signal for northern MD is pretty good.

Very true, though I'm selfishly talking about myself/areas around the metro. I'll take the (surprise?) initiation of showers storms west of Culpeper as a decent sign.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Our location seems very much on the edge. Fingers crossed. GFS is pretty much dry through Friday before a wet weekend.

eta…and the new SPC puts us on the southern edge of the Slight.

         Yeah, I'd feel better about storm chances today if I lived along/north of I-70, but Howard County has a shot.     You're right that the best shot after today isn't until the end of the week, although there does appear to be a weak shortwave approaching later Wednesday.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Very true, though I'm selfishly talking about myself/areas around the metro. I'll take the (surprise?) initiation of showers storms west of Culpeper as a decent sign.

        Hug the Hi-Res Window ARW2.   That is one of the only CAMs that have storms further south;  it seems to have the best handle on those current cells you mentioned, so maybe you've got a shot.

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