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July Disc/obs 2021


George BM
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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

But without the monsoons.

Yea - those monsoon rains were some of the most intense I've ever seen.  Would just pour for hours with intense rates.  Not a lot of lightning in Delhi other than one time I'll never forget, but the storms in Bangkok were sometimes very electrified.

 The one unforgettable storm in Delhi had so much lightning the sky was constantly lit up for about 2 hours as the storm barely crawled through.  Was a major calamity for the city.  Lots of people in the Embassy lost their cars and major property damage throughout the area, to a population that can largely least afford it.  

 

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

First split and miss of the day.

Think I'll get a head start and go ahead and water the garden. 

Dude just how much rain do you feel you should get? I watch radar too and have a pretty good feel in how much it’s rained out there the past few weeks.

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Convective initiation west of IAD and down closer to CHO. The cell west of IAD started putting off quite a few strikes before there was much of a BR signature. Some high grade instability to work with today and a strong sign that today's storms will likely be electrically active.

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If I don’t get at least a half inch of rain this evening, I’m turning on my sprinklers until I empty the nearby reservoir.

Our pool needs water, told mr map to see what we can get today before filling with our crap well water, fingers crossed.

poor guy just went out to mow, it’s quite hot 

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7 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Convective initiation west of IAD and down closer to CHO. The cell west of IAD started putting off quite a few strikes before there was much of a BR signature. Some high grade instability to work with today and a strong sign that today's storms will likely be electrically active.

Filling in at Sykesville Fire Department today and we have a decent cell firing off to the west of us.

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1 hour ago, RDM said:

Yea - those monsoon rains were some of the most intense I've ever seen.  Would just pour for hours with intense rates.  Not a lot of lightning in Delhi other than one time I'll never forget, but the storms in Bangkok were sometimes very electrified.

 The one unforgettable storm in Delhi had so much lightning the sky was constantly lit up for about 2 hours as the storm barely crawled through.  Was a major calamity for the city.  Lots of people in the Embassy lost their cars and major property damage throughout the area, to a population that can largely least afford it.  

 

When were you in Delhi? We were there from 86-92, father worked for CARE, spent loads of time at ACSA and US embassy movie theater.

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Latest skew-T fcst soundings spitting out widespread 45-55kt wind gusts (and theta-e differences between the mid-levels and boundary layer of about 25-27K, which matches) so probably a good call there by the SPC on emphasizing the wind potential. Though I think it'll mostly be outflow dominated by the time it approaches the bay, wouldn't be surprised to see some weak rotation in any discrete activity and a bit better organization in general as the windfield is already backed and dews are higher there. We're at the time of the year where the Bay is very warm (80+F) and tends to help convective activity by pumping dews and providing instability after sunset.

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14 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Latest skew-T fcst soundings spitting out widespread 45-55kt wind gusts (and theta-e differences between the mid-levels and boundary layer of about 25-27K, which matches) so probably a good call there by the SPC on emphasizing the wind potential. Though I think it'll mostly be outflow dominated by the time it approaches the bay, wouldn't be surprised to see some weak rotation in any discrete activity and a bit better organization in general as the windfield is already backed and dews are higher there. We're at the time of the year where the Bay is very warm (80+F) and tends to help convective activity by pumping dews and providing instability after sunset.

That 25-27K theta-e difference. Is that between the 1000mb and 500mb level?

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There will be definite winners and losers today, but across guidance there is no real agreement on exact location. Should be fun lol.

We have different definitions for fun. :lol:

The one advantage I see for today is that once a storm forms, I don’t see it dying on the doorstep. In other words, whoever gets in the cross hairs of training storms is going to dumped on.

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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We have different definitions for fun. :lol:

The one advantage I see for today is that once a storm forms, I don’t see it dying on the doorstep. In other words, whoever gets in the cross hairs of training storms is going to dumped on.

Please let Nationals Park be in the cross hairs.

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We have different definitions for fun. :lol:

The one advantage I see for today is that once a storm forms, I don’t see it dying on the doorstep. In other words, whoever gets in the cross hairs of training storms is going to dumped on.

Could still get a splitter lol.

Whether I get 2" or a tenth, it wont make much difference in the ultimate outcome for the grass, but a good storm with some  booming T&L would be fun. Seems like its been forever. The remnants of Elsa late last week was a good soaker, but totally boring otherwise.

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16 minutes ago, George BM said:

That 25-27K theta-e difference. Is that between the 1000mb and 500mb level?

I generally use the difference between the mixed boundary layer and a representative sample of the theta-e minimum aloft (generally 700-600mb), though there are a few effective methods to choose from depending on the situation.

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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We have different definitions for fun. :lol:

The one advantage I see for today is that once a storm forms, I don’t see it dying on the doorstep. In other words, whoever gets in the cross hairs of training storms is going to dumped on.

With beer in hand—it’s all fun! Bring dem storms hon.  B)

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