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July Disc/obs 2021


George BM
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33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro went back to the progressive solution. Hopefully I get a good soaking rain tomorrow evening and anything else is gravy.

Icon, NAM, and CMC still have a second round Sunday into Monday. The slower guidance have the WA ridge hanging on a bit longer.

Might be more realistic given the time of year.

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Serious question: are we looking at like all day heavy rain or just scattered thunderstorms next week? Leaving for Wildwood Sunday afternoon-wednesday morning and every time we try to go it usually get almost rained out...hoping to avoid that.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Serious question: are we looking at like all day heavy rain or just scattered thunderstorms next week? Leaving for Wildwood Sunday afternoon-wednesday morning and every time we try to go it usually get almost rained out...hoping to avoid that.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

Sunday into Monday is questionable- depending on the exact location of the front there could be some rain esp along the coast. Beyond that, there will be a trough in place with embedded shortwaves aloft moving through, so there will be some chances for scattered showers/storms from time to time, probably afternoon/evening stuff for the most part. No indication of any washouts on current guidance.

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Yep, fat CAPE profiles tomorrow with some solid 2500-3000 values showing up on fcst soundings this morning. There's *just enough* shear for high CAPE to mostly compensate, so wouldn't be surprised to see a similar setup to Wednesday, if a bit less organized.

Edit: Theta-e profiles indicate about 25K/C in between the boundary layer and mid-levels and combined with PWATs around 2", that argues for some wet microburst activity tomorrow as well. There's very little to no capping, so I would expect a bit earlier of a start time for initiation than usual. Any storms that fire early will have a good chance of being able to pulse to severe limits before weakening.

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Hope we score a t-storm tomorrow.  Off topic but I looked at that insane Feb. 1899 winter to see some numbers -- out of a 7 day period that year had 5 each record low maxes and mins, not to mention the all the snow.  Crazy

DY NMX NMN NPCP NS  RMX /YEAR LOMX/YEAR RMN /YEAR HIMN/YEAR MXPCP YEAR MXSN YEAR
09  46  30 0.09 0.2  70 /2001  10 /1899  -7 /1899  46 /1990  1.92 1885  5.4 1906 
10  46  30 0.10 0.2  68 /1960+  4*/1899  -8 /1899  53 /1925  1.06 2018  9.3 1926 
11  46  30 0.09 0.2  76 /1932  12 /1899 -15*/1899  48 /2020  1.91 1983 16.4*1983 
12  46  30 0.09 0.2  74 /1999  11 /1899   4 /1899  51 /1932  1.37 1985  7.0 1899 
13  47  31 0.09 0.3  72 /1951  10 /1899   2 /1917  53 /1880  1.77 1971 12.0 1899 
14  47  31 0.10 0.2  73 /1990  17 /1916   4 /1905  54 /1984  0.98 1940  4.9 1885 
15  47  31 0.09 0.2  77 /1949  18 /1943  -6 /1899  52 /1909  1.38 1958 12.9 1958 
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14 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Hope we score a t-storm tomorrow.  Off topic but I looked at that insane Feb. 1899 winter to see some numbers -- out of a 7 day period that year had 5 each record low maxes and mins, not to mention the all the snow.  Crazy

DY NMX NMN NPCP NS  RMX /YEAR LOMX/YEAR RMN /YEAR HIMN/YEAR MXPCP YEAR MXSN YEAR
09  46  30 0.09 0.2  70 /2001  10 /1899  -7 /1899  46 /1990  1.92 1885  5.4 1906 
10  46  30 0.10 0.2  68 /1960+  4*/1899  -8 /1899  53 /1925  1.06 2018  9.3 1926 
11  46  30 0.09 0.2  76 /1932  12 /1899 -15*/1899  48 /2020  1.91 1983 16.4*1983 
12  46  30 0.09 0.2  74 /1999  11 /1899   4 /1899  51 /1932  1.37 1985  7.0 1899 
13  47  31 0.09 0.3  72 /1951  10 /1899   2 /1917  53 /1880  1.77 1971 12.0 1899 
14  47  31 0.10 0.2  73 /1990  17 /1916   4 /1905  54 /1984  0.98 1940  4.9 1885 
15  47  31 0.09 0.2  77 /1949  18 /1943  -6 /1899  52 /1909  1.38 1958 12.9 1958 

Must have been a severely -AO.

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8 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Such a huge difference from here. At 6.70" on the month already at NHK. Almost certainly going to add to that total tomorrow. Outside shot of reaching 10" this month.

meanwhile, I have less than 2" for the month so far. 

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

meanwhile, I have less than 2" for the month so far. 

1.6 for the month so far, and more than half that was on 7/1.  Walking on my lawn feels like concrete under the crunchy grass and I'm getting big cracks in the garden beds, even with all the watering.  6.7 for NHK?  I have just 7.45 for May, June and July combined!

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Just looked at my rain gauge and almost 6.5" for the month. Not sure how that happened. I thought it was closer to 3. I will have to check some local stations.

Total for July here is 2.7" so far.

Somehow the date setting on my station got messed up.

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4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

1.6 for the month so far, and more than half that was on 7/1.  Walking on my lawn feels like concrete under the crunchy grass and I'm getting big cracks in the garden beds, even with all the watering.  6.7 for NHK?  I have just 7.45 for May, June and July combined!

That's nearly double me.  I'm barely at 4 inches.

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7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow!  Let's hope our little micro-deserts score today, because tomorrow is looking dry and we won't have another chance for a while.  Gonna be nice tomorrow though!

Indeed.  Off to a horrendous start though.  Complex of storms rolled thru all around me last night.  Never got a drop.

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Ridge axis remains to our west for the next 10-14 days it looks like. That should prevent any major heat during that period, although I doubt we avoid a few days in the low-mid 90s in late July. Still, probably some nice “cold” fronts. Late next week should have some nice days.

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