Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, cptcatz said: A spot of deep convection just popped up over the LLC. Might this be its last chance? Will be something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Prospero said: Will be something to watch... this image shows how bad of shape the storm is really in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: this image shows how bad of shape the storm is really in Can't keep up with itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 NHS track hasn't changed much over the past couple days, the timing has slowed down. Still a storm near us in Tampa Bay next week. We'll see what is left after it goes over Cuba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Is this the same storm we were watching yesterday? Similar appearance to Isaias last season east of Florida when it completely collapsed for a period. Models have really trended weaker too and maximized land interaction. Me thinks this storm will be a mid grade TS as most when it impacts Florida 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 As expected, recon is finding a much weaker storm and higher pressure 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Latest Recon Pass 1003mb 45kt. Not a cane . Was fun while it lasted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Yeah—you can’t sugarcoat it. Despite the convective burst near the LLC it’s getting sheared and forward motion only hurts its ability to organize and align itself. It’s hanging on with these bursts and heading to the best OHC environment in the entire basin so I don’t think we can give Elsa last rites or anything like that, but it’s struggling for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 70mph/999mb at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 I guess you could say Elsa let herself go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Trade winds too strong this time of year. 39 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I guess you could say Elsa let herself go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 35 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I guess you could say Elsa let herself go Wouldn't really say that. Her forward speed just out running the mid and upper level and convection associated with it. SST are plenty warm enough for further strengthening. Just needs to slow down and skirt along the DR and Cuba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 52 mph gust at Barahona this morning. Looks like the weather stations are flaky this morning in the area only getting data sporadically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 If this makes it to the gulf will it be the earliest named african wave to do so? Until it slows down there’s no way it will stack any sort of convective bursts but it does look like a fighter and my guess is it survives today. It looks like it will miss significant land interaction until Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Not surprising it fell apart but it still was amazing it formed in the first place. Aug/sept they most likely wont be falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Good thread for those interested in diving deeper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Double Action said: If this makes it to the gulf will it be the earliest named african wave to do so? Until it slows down there’s no way it will stack any sort of convective bursts but it does look like a fighter and my guess is it survives today. It looks like it will miss significant land interaction until Cuba. I’m sure there have been some earlier ones. This one is uncommon because of how soon it developed and how strong it became. I’m sure others were just middling along until they found a more favorable environment in the Gulf and developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m sure there have been some earlier ones. This one is uncommon because of how soon it developed and how strong it became. I’m sure others were just middling along until they found a more favorable environment in the Gulf and developed. I’m sure the folks in Barbados were caught a little off guard with how strong Elsa was when passing the island. Getting sustained hurricane force winds actually measured on land rarely happens even with some stronger land falling canes, not to mention several gusts over 85. No doubt a good blow down there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Recon didn’t find anything over 50 kts flight level winds on first pass but it was not in the northeastern quad. Definitely extremely weak in the western and southern part of the circulation. If this thing hits land in this state I’d expect it to open up rather quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Looks like the center might slide right to the south of the Haiti peninsula and there's some nice convection popping up on the west side. It might not be time to let her go just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Latest model runs are in very close agreement now. HWRF came back to reality and is also on top of GFS and ECMWF. It looks like it is going to survive barely despite clipping Haiti and then traversing Cuba. Ft Myers to Tampa Bay will most likely get full tropical storm impacts. Rain for the rest of florida. I’am in Seminole fl and we have that trough on us right now with lots of rain so I expect adding this to the mix will lead to localized flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Convection trying to build north of the LLC. That's a better sign than behind it. Will it wrap? Ummm, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 On 6/30/2021 at 7:17 PM, nycwinter said: their is no rescue it's a recovery mission now.. Correct. While this is the potential for a person or two to be found alive, this is a slim possibility as well. The likelihood is that all persons missing are deceased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Correct. While this is the potential for a person or two to be found alive, this is a slim possibility as well. The likelihood is that all persons missing are deceased. This is off-topic for certain. But many of us here in Florida are hoping for some rescue. Historically it has happened in the past. Of course as Sir Francis Bacon wisely said, "Hope is a great breakfast, but a bad dinner." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 That is the start of a CDO snorkel with the hot water stack on its east. Pretty cool. Question of course is this the result of less shear and maybe lessening speed. If it holds up I think the answer is yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 For what's it is worth: Update 7.3.2021 @ 5:00 pm Governor DeSantis issued Executive Order 21-150 regarding Tropical Storm Elsa, expected to make landfall in early next week. This issues a State of Emergency for the following counties: Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota. I'll spare you the 12 page executive order, and all the "WHEREAS,..." statements. But I guess being proactive is good. I've read it completely, sounds good, makes sense. I will say this is the first time I received an email with this kind of info during any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Hard to see where the LLC is with cloud cover. Is it where the biggest convection burst appears to be? Yea I should know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, Prospero said: Hard to see where the LLC is with cloud cover. Is it where the biggest convection burst appears to be? Yea I should know... It’s pretty hard to tell but my guess is it’s out ahead of the convective burst. It will end up missing SW Haiti though so maybe it’ll get a little organization tonight as it clears the mountain influence and slows a bit. Maybe. Its got an uphill battle. Pun intended Edit: recon en route 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Florida is taking this serious. In all these years I've never seen to much proactive response to a "potential" storm, even with Irma and all the hype (ultimately justified) it didn't seem to produce so much from our local and State government. #2 for Immediate Release, Saturday, July 3, 2021 – 6:00PM GULFPORT RESIDENTS ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ELSA City continuing to monitor the storm, preparing for possible Tuesday impact Latest Storm/Incident Developments The National Hurricane Center has placed the City of Gulfport in the five-day cone of uncertainty for Elsa, which was downgraded to a Tropical Storm late Saturday morning. Regardless of Elsa’s eventual track, high winds, rain, and flooding or storm surge may affect the residents in low-lying or flood prone areas during the Tuesday, July 6 high tide at 10am. Many areas south of 28th Avenue South in and along the City’s Waterfront and Marina areas could experience the most significant coastal flooding. Residents in low-lying or flood prone areas should make a plan in the event of potential flooding. Boaters: Be prepared. Listen to weather forecasts and plan ahead. Don't wait until a hurricane warning to secure your boat. Haul out your boat or add additional lines during a hurricane or tropical storm watch, which is issued before a warning, 48-hours before the anticipated onset of storm winds. City Response/Action Self-service sandbags are available from 8:00AM to 5:00PM, Sunday July 4 at the 49th Street Neighborhood Center, 1617 49th Street South. There is 10-bag limit and proof of residency may be required. The City of Gulfport Information Call Center will open for preparedness questions on Sunday, July 4 at 8 a.m. Call 727-893-1000 and speak to a City Staff member with preparedness questions. Web updates will be posted online at https://mygulfport.us/hurricane-center. Advice & Information for Residents Make a plan now in case you need to shelter in place of leave your home - locate evacuation zone: www.pinellascounty.org/knowyourzone. Finalize preparedness plans: http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/prepareahead.htm. Monitor local news media, National Weather Service, www.pinellascounty.org, Facebook @PinellasCountyNews and Twitter @PinellasCoNews, search hashtag #PCElsa. Register for emergency alerts at http://www.pinellascounty.org/alertpinellas/. Review your disaster plan: Please preregister for special needs shelters by calling the County Information Center at (727) 464-4333. Pre-registration is recommended for those transporting themselves. For those needing transportation assistance, registration is required. Residents only need to register for special needs shelters once per season, so doing it now will help you for the rest of the year. Purchase necessary items to complete survival kit now. Prepare your kit. Be sure to include necessary hygiene supplies and gather important papers. For those going to a shelter, we recommend that you bring face coverings and sanitizer. Review checklist online at www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/prepareahead.htm. Sign up for pet shelters now by visiting www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/petpreparedness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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