July 2021

[uncle W]

record low for July 31st is 57 set in 1914...record low for August 1st is 59 set in 1895 and tied in 1964...I remember August 64 and the very cool first half of August 64...actually the first three weeks were very cool but the last ten days were warm to hot...baseball and weather were my main hobbies...when Mantle was hot the weather was cold...May 63 he almost hit a ball out of Yankee Stadium...he said it was the hardest ball he every hit...a few days later NYC set a record low of 39...latest 39 on record...August 64 he hits a 500ft home run to center at Yankee Stadium...two days later NYC set two record lows both 54 each morning...October 64 he hits a walk off home run in the world series...two days later NYC had its earliest 34 degree morning...August 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965 set many record lows...the 8/15/64 record low broke the record of 55 set in 1963...

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

record low for July 31st is 57 set in 1914...record low for August 1st is 59 set in 1895 and tied in 1964...I remember August 64 and the very cool first half of August 64...actually the first three weeks were very cool but the last ten days were warm to hot...baseball and weather were my main hobbies...when Mantle was hot the weather was cold...May 63 he almost hit a ball out of Yankee Stadium...he said it was the hardest ball he every hit...a few days later NYC set a record low of 39...latest 39 on record...August 64 he hits a 500ft home run to center at Yankee Stadium...two days later NYC set two record lows both 54 each morning...October 64 he hits a walk off home run in the world series...two days later NYC had its earliest 34 degree morning...August 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965 set many record lows...the 8/15/64 record low broke the record of 55 set in 1963...

 

Early Sept 64 Unc.? I was a college Freshman and remember the NYC temperature dropped into the 40’s. As always ….

[RippleEffect]

First cool down of the summer. Very happy to see this! 72 tonight and than cooler every night for a week! It’s perfect after tomorrow

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of July are averaging 75degs.(67/82), or -3.

First 5 days of August at -7, perhaps?

Month to date is  76.6[-1.0].        July should end at  76.5[-1.0].

71*(90%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.

Rain today:   CMC  0.7",  EURO  0.5",   GFS  0.4".       CMC/EURO way down from yesterday and the GFS is the same.      SREF  0.5".       Rain probably only between 3pm---9pm.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, uncle W said:

record low for July 31st is 57 set in 1914...record low for August 1st is 59 set in 1895 and tied in 1964...I remember August 64 and the very cool first half of August 64...actually the first three weeks were very cool but the last ten days were warm to hot...baseball and weather were my main hobbies...when Mantle was hot the weather was cold...May 63 he almost hit a ball out of Yankee Stadium...he said it was the hardest ball he every hit...a few days later NYC set a record low of 39...latest 39 on record...August 64 he hits a 500ft home run to center at Yankee Stadium...two days later NYC set two record lows both 54 each morning...October 64 he hits a walk off home run in the world series...two days later NYC had its earliest 34 degree morning...August 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965 set many record lows...the 8/15/64 record low broke the record of 55 set in 1963...

 

Didnt LGA have sleet in late May in one of those years?

 

[bluewave]

Every warm up since late May has been followed by a cool down and heavy rain. So the pattern is continuing. After the highest temperatures peaked in late June, the warm ups haven’t been as intense.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Max Temperature Departure	Precipitation
2021-05-20	76	2.4	0.00
2021-05-21	83	9.1	0.00
2021-05-22	96	21.8	0.00
2021-05-23	94	19.6	0.00
2021-05-24	68	-6.7	0.00
2021-05-25	81	6.0	0.00
2021-05-26	94	18.7	0.09
2021-05-27	87	11.4	0.01
2021-05-28	71	-4.9	1.15
2021-05-29	52	-24.2	0.58
2021-05-30	53	-23.5	1.15
2021-05-31	76	-0.8	T
2021-06-01	80	2.9	0.00
2021-06-02	79	1.6	T
2021-06-03	77	-0.8	0.41
2021-06-04	83	4.9	0.19
2021-06-05	95	16.6	0.00
2021-06-06	97	18.2	0.00
2021-06-07	95	15.9	0.04
2021-06-08	93	13.6	2.19
2021-06-09	96	16.2	0.53
2021-06-10	85	4.9	0.00
2021-06-11	73	-7.4	T
2021-06-12	72	-8.8	T
2021-06-13	78	-3.1	T
2021-06-14	78	-3.5	0.16
2021-06-15	85	3.2	0.01
2021-06-16	81	-1.1	0.00
2021-06-17	81	-1.5	0.00
2021-06-18	88	5.2	0.00
2021-06-19	93	9.9	0.05
2021-06-20	91	7.6	0.00
2021-06-21	92	8.3	T
2021-06-22	80	-4.0	0.17
2021-06-23	80	-4.3	0.00
2021-06-24	79	-5.5	0.00
2021-06-25	83	-1.8	0.00
2021-06-26	86	1.0	0.07
2021-06-27	95	9.7	0.00
2021-06-28	99	13.5	0.00
2021-06-29	102	16.3	0.00
2021-06-30	103	17.1	0.54
2021-07-01	89	2.9	0.94
2021-07-02	81	-5.3	1.53
2021-07-03	70	-16.4	0.05
2021-07-04	84	-2.6	0.00
2021-07-05	89	2.3	0.00
2021-07-06	97	10.2	0.55
2021-07-07	97	10.1	T
2021-07-08	88	1.0	0.08
2021-07-09	91	3.9	1.60
2021-07-10	86	-1.1	T
2021-07-11	82	-5.2	T
2021-07-12	93	5.8	0.69
2021-07-13	78	-9.3	0.01
2021-07-14	93	5.7	0.07
2021-07-15	91	3.7	T
2021-07-16	96	8.7	0.00
2021-07-17	93	5.7	2.28
2021-07-18	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-19	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-20	90	2.8	0.00
2021-07-21	85	-2.1	0.05
2021-07-22	85	-2.1	0.00
2021-07-23	86	-1.0	T
2021-07-24	85	-1.9	0.00
2021-07-25	87	0.1	0.37
2021-07-26	93	6.2	0.08
2021-07-27	94	7.3	T
2021-07-28	87	0.4	0.04

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will mostly cloudy today with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50”-1.00” rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 80°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will mostly cloudy today with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50”-1.00” rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 80°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Don what are the chances NYC beats its July rainfall record and the chances we get to one foot of monthly rainfall?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Every warm up since late May has been followed by a cool down and heavy rain. So the pattern is continuing. After the highest temperatures peaked in late June, the warm ups haven’t been as intense.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Max Temperature Departure	Precipitation
2021-05-20	76	2.4	0.00
2021-05-21	83	9.1	0.00
2021-05-22	96	21.8	0.00
2021-05-23	94	19.6	0.00
2021-05-24	68	-6.7	0.00
2021-05-25	81	6.0	0.00
2021-05-26	94	18.7	0.09
2021-05-27	87	11.4	0.01
2021-05-28	71	-4.9	1.15
2021-05-29	52	-24.2	0.58
2021-05-30	53	-23.5	1.15
2021-05-31	76	-0.8	T
2021-06-01	80	2.9	0.00
2021-06-02	79	1.6	T
2021-06-03	77	-0.8	0.41
2021-06-04	83	4.9	0.19
2021-06-05	95	16.6	0.00
2021-06-06	97	18.2	0.00
2021-06-07	95	15.9	0.04
2021-06-08	93	13.6	2.19
2021-06-09	96	16.2	0.53
2021-06-10	85	4.9	0.00
2021-06-11	73	-7.4	T
2021-06-12	72	-8.8	T
2021-06-13	78	-3.1	T
2021-06-14	78	-3.5	0.16
2021-06-15	85	3.2	0.01
2021-06-16	81	-1.1	0.00
2021-06-17	81	-1.5	0.00
2021-06-18	88	5.2	0.00
2021-06-19	93	9.9	0.05
2021-06-20	91	7.6	0.00
2021-06-21	92	8.3	T
2021-06-22	80	-4.0	0.17
2021-06-23	80	-4.3	0.00
2021-06-24	79	-5.5	0.00
2021-06-25	83	-1.8	0.00
2021-06-26	86	1.0	0.07
2021-06-27	95	9.7	0.00
2021-06-28	99	13.5	0.00
2021-06-29	102	16.3	0.00
2021-06-30	103	17.1	0.54
2021-07-01	89	2.9	0.94
2021-07-02	81	-5.3	1.53
2021-07-03	70	-16.4	0.05
2021-07-04	84	-2.6	0.00
2021-07-05	89	2.3	0.00
2021-07-06	97	10.2	0.55
2021-07-07	97	10.1	T
2021-07-08	88	1.0	0.08
2021-07-09	91	3.9	1.60
2021-07-10	86	-1.1	T
2021-07-11	82	-5.2	T
2021-07-12	93	5.8	0.69
2021-07-13	78	-9.3	0.01
2021-07-14	93	5.7	0.07
2021-07-15	91	3.7	T
2021-07-16	96	8.7	0.00
2021-07-17	93	5.7	2.28
2021-07-18	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-19	86	-1.2	T
2021-07-20	90	2.8	0.00
2021-07-21	85	-2.1	0.05
2021-07-22	85	-2.1	0.00
2021-07-23	86	-1.0	T
2021-07-24	85	-1.9	0.00
2021-07-25	87	0.1	0.37
2021-07-26	93	6.2	0.08
2021-07-27	94	7.3	T
2021-07-28	87	0.4	0.04

How did Newark get to 87 yesterday?  Everyone else was 5 degrees or more colder.

 

[SACRUS]

The dog days of summer coming in with a miniature Maltese this year.   Cooler for a week or through 8/4.  Once past today's rains it looks mostly dry and very pleasant.  Fantastic summer weather. 

 

On to August :  Open 3 - 4 days cooler than normal, coolest open to August since 2013.  The western atlanic ridge continues to be hinted at expanding west in the 8/5 and beyond timeframe.  So the progression and extent of the westward movement will need to watch.  Transition from dry and below average to humid and above and then some heat looks likely as we move into the next weekend (8/6).   

[uncle W]

11 hours ago, rclab said:

Early Sept 64 Unc.? I was a college Freshman and remember the NYC temperature dropped into the 40’s. As always ….

9/16/64 NYC has a low of 48 breaking the record 49 set in 1961...that record was broken in 1966 with a low of 47 and it still stands...

[JerseyWx]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is looking like one of the stronger cold fronts that the Northeast has seen at the end of July in quite some time. The 850 mb temperatures in New England will be near the coldest on record since 1979. So it’s possible that places like EWR and NYC can see a rare dip below 60° for the end of July.

Upper 40's and lower 50's in the outer burbs, pretty impressive.

[lee59]

Lots of clouds here and a decent SSE breeze, not exactly severe weather criteria.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what are the chances NYC beats its July rainfall record and the chances we get to one foot of monthly rainfall?

 

I think we’’ probably fall short of both numbers, unless there are training thunderstorms. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think we’’ probably fall short of both numbers, unless there are training thunderstorms. 

Tale of 2 months up this way-close to 10 inches of rain 7/1-7/8 less than half an inch since 7/8

[donsutherland1]

Through 7:41 pm, New York City had picked up 0.43" of rain, bringing July's total to 11.05". That is third highest July figure on record. In the wake of tonight's rainfall, fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will take hold and continue through the weekend. Saturday could be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City.

Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +12.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.887 today.

On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.434 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.299 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).

 

[CIK62]

At least 0.43" more rain for Central Park:

MOST RECENT DATA:  8pm edt   29-JUL-21
NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY (   89')                   LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
NYC  3pm 74 68 81 170  7    125 2993        19 BKN  25 BKN  32 OVC     9
     4pm 75 69 81 000  3 17 112 2989                16 BKN  22 OVC     9
     5pm 75 69 81 000  4    104 2987 0.01           15 BKN  21 OVC     6 R-
    1720 73 70 90 000  4        2986                14 BKN  21 OVC     3 R-F
    1736 73 71 93 000  5        2985                        13 OVC     2 R-F
     6pm 73 71 93 000  0    095 2984                13 BKN  17 OVC     4 R-F
    1813 73 71 93 000  4        2983                11 BKN  15 OVC     2 R-F
    1824 73 71 93 000  5        2983                        10 OVC 1 1/2 RF
    1838 73 71 93 170  8 24     2977                 9 BKN  24 OVC   3/4 R+F
     7pm 73 71 93           082 2980                 9 BKN  28 OVC 1 3/4 RF
    1859 73 72 96               2980                 9 BKN  26 OVC 2 1/2 R-F
    1917 73 72 96 000  4        2979                         9 OVC 1 1/4 R-F
    1941 73 71 93 200  9 16     2980        12 BKN  33 BKN  70 OVC 1 1/4 R-F
     8pm 73 71 93 000  4    083 2980 0.43   14 BKN  29 BKN 110 OVC     3 R-F
NYC    6 temps: high=  75 at  4pm low=  73 at 1720 mean=  73.8   precip=  0.43

[doncat]

11.16" here for month...station record is 12.23" in 2004.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.42" of rain so far today. 

[psv88]

What started as a decent thunderstorm season out here really went down the tubes. 

[JustinRP37]

This is the first summer of my life I can’t wait to end. This pattern has to break at some point. Dreary weather in the midst of summer is brutal. I really feel for seasonal businesses this year, especially after a tough 2020. 

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Tale of 2 months up this way-close to 10 inches of rain 7/1-7/8 less than half an inch since 7/8

scratch that.  Had close to 3 inches here today at least in my backyard.  Crazy flash flooding for about an hour at the height of it all.

[nycwinter]

looks like we won't break the all time record for rain in the month of july in central park a shame..

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

This is the first summer of my life I can’t wait to end. This pattern has to break at some point. Dreary weather in the midst of summer is brutal. I really feel for seasonal businesses this year, especially after a tough 2020. 

it feels like this summer has been here for months due to the heat waves.. and it is still july..

[Will - Rutgers]

what an insane month for severe weather.

we kicked off with a decaying TC and some record-setting rains, we had weeks of SVR watch days, several huge rain and lightning events, and close with one of the most impactful tornado days in years.

what strikes me is how many of these events overperformed.  your mileage varied with your location of course but nothing really just busted.

[IrishRob17]

4 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

what an insane month for severe weather.

we kicked off with a decaying TC and some record-setting rains, we had weeks of SVR watch days, several huge rain and lightning events, and close with one of the most impactful tornado days in years.

what strikes me is how many of these events overperformed.  your mileage varied with your location of course but nothing really just busted.

Cue the “If it didn’t happen on top of my head it busted” crowd…. To add to the regions craziness, a low of 47 projected here from Upton for tonight. 

[tim]

17 hours ago, lee59 said:

Lots of clouds here and a decent SSE breeze, not exactly severe weather criteria.

yeah..there wasn't much rain out here..watched the radar fall apart as it moved east..as the norm with wind off the water..will be curious how low temps will get @ KFOK saturday morning..dare i say mid 40's??!!

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.47" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current temp 69/DP 66/RH 92%

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of July are averaging 74degs.(66/82), or -3.   

Month to date is  76.3[-1.3].      July should end at  76.2[-1.3]

60 to 63 tomorrow AM.

No heat on the GFS till August 8.      EURO with 3" of rain before we get to the 8th.

71*(86%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.       79* by Noon.       83* by 4pm.         Briefly 84* at 6pm.        73* at 10pm.

[LoboLeader1]

67 here, comfortable morning to be outdoors. Collected .30 in the rain bucket from last night.