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The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average  temperatures than June.

401BC021-DB21-42AA-9FCC-7D89C0415BA2.png.c82235f5511424a17d6003e88e70cb59.png

3EC5303F-8A9D-477F-A6F1-F151E392A72F.thumb.png.b38fb013c843e957db9e5a1dae826a5f.png

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Season
2021 74.4 71.2 72.8
1976 73.4 72.9 73.2
1930 72.4 72.8 72.6
1994 71.9 77.5 74.7
1949 71.6 76.3 73.9
1957 71.3 74.1 72.7
2001 71.1 69.9 70.5
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Morning thoughts…

Today will become partly to mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. A few locations could see upper 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm.

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I see it more likely in the fall and winter rather than spring and summer because of our subtropical rain forest type of rainfall pattern now lol.  Could you imagine December 2015 type extremes happening in July?  One can only dream.....

Of course the temperatures can't ever be that far above normal in the summer, but I was thinking more along the lines of standard deviation.

 

What happened in Seattle was just over 4 sigma above the normal high temperature. The 108F peak temperature there would be the equivalent of 112F in Central Park. 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

What happened in Seattle was just over 4 sigma above the normal high temperature. The 108F peak temperature there would be the equivalent of 112F in Central Park. 

Don what about December 2015 for us, how far above normal was that?  And conversely, the cold of February 2015?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average  temperatures than June.

401BC021-DB21-42AA-9FCC-7D89C0415BA2.png.c82235f5511424a17d6003e88e70cb59.png

3EC5303F-8A9D-477F-A6F1-F151E392A72F.thumb.png.b38fb013c843e957db9e5a1dae826a5f.png

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Season
2021 74.4 71.2 72.8
1976 73.4 72.9 73.2
1930 72.4 72.8 72.6
1994 71.9 77.5 74.7
1949 71.6 76.3 73.9
1957 71.3 74.1 72.7
2001 71.1 69.9 70.5

Could we have a cooler July avg than June too?

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Could we have a cooler July avg than June too?

 

July has been much warmer in our area than Boston. 
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Season
Mean 73.5 79.9 76.7
2021 76.2 79.5 77.9
2020 74.4 80.8 77.6
2019 72.7 80.6 76.7
2018 72.1 78.2 75.2
2017 72.7 77.3 75.0
2016 72.9 79.9 76.4
2015 72.0 79.0 75.5
2014 72.8 77.0 74.9
2013 73.3 80.9 77.1
2012 72.4 80.8 76.6
2011 74.5 82.7 78.6
2010 76.2 82.3 79.3


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Season
Mean 73.6 80.2 76.9
2021 75.6 78.0 76.8
2020 75.9 82.9 79.4
2019 72.8 81.5 77.2
2018 72.9 79.8 76.4
2017 73.6 78.1 75.9
2016 73.6 81.1 77.4
2015 71.3 79.2 75.3
2014 72.5 77.0 74.8
2013 74.0 81.2 77.6
2012 72.9 80.4 76.7
2011 72.7 80.4 76.6
2010 76.0 82.8 79.4
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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average  temperatures than June.

401BC021-DB21-42AA-9FCC-7D89C0415BA2.png.c82235f5511424a17d6003e88e70cb59.png

3EC5303F-8A9D-477F-A6F1-F151E392A72F.thumb.png.b38fb013c843e957db9e5a1dae826a5f.png

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Season
2021 74.4 71.2 72.8
1976 73.4 72.9 73.2
1930 72.4 72.8 72.6
1994 71.9 77.5 74.7
1949 71.6 76.3 73.9
1957 71.3 74.1 72.7
2001 71.1 69.9 70.5

the next hot spell looks to start in about a week on the ensembles. maybe the western ridge can flatten enough for 100

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14 minutes ago, dWave said:

Another day with backdoor kind of feel in mid summer. Cloudy, periods of rain and drizzle all day temps stuck in low 70s.

you have rain/drizzle?   Nothing here-just mainly cloudy with a couple breaks of sun here/there 76.  Looks like the disturbance is beginning to move out so should see increasing sun especially the further west one is.

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45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you have rain/drizzle?   Nothing here-just mainly cloudy with a couple breaks of sun here/there 76.  Looks like the disturbance is beginning to move out so should see increasing sun especially the further west one is.

It has been in and out drizzle all day here, the last shower went through around 2.

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Clouds broke during the afternoon and temperatures rose into the upper 70s and lower to middle 80s. In Montana, extreme heat prevailed. Glasgow reached 110°, which broke the daily record of 107° from 1941. The 110° temperature was the 3rd highest on record. At Boise, the overnight low temperature was 80°. The previous daily record high minimum temperature was 72°, which was set in 1877 and tied in 1918 and 2009.

Tomorrow will feature hazy sunshine and very warm temperatures. The haze will be the result of wildfires burning in the U.S. and Canadian West. Temperatures will surge into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +8.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.722 today.

On July 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.307 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.999 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.6° below normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/92), or +3        Same proviso as yesterday here.

Month to date is  76.4[-1.0].        Should be 77.5[+0 3] by the 28th.

Near 90 today with few clouds till late today.            

74*(80%RH) here at 6am, dirty blue.      80* by 10am.       82* by Noon.          83* by 2pm.---dirty sky, dirty air.       Reached 86*.

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