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Central PA - Summer 2021


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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Hopefully that covered most of the losses 

Not sure how much he makes in a year.  I always joke with him and say I got screwed having to pay for his crop since it was Trump bucks that paid for it.  That is how I got to know the hydrologist based out of Hagerstown...when he was up here doing property surveys.

 

Speaking of USGS, here are the current PA stream levels.  We have gone back up to the normal area.  Lots of much above in Eastern LSV. 

 

image.thumb.png.bdd2147cc92918816d0f70fdc1e9ff45.png

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:


People on NY board were talking about a signal for a PRE. I believe we had that with LEE. CTP seems very confident this is setting up to be a classic crush job with easterly flow, tropical moisture, and trough setting up right over is for enhancement and training


.

And yet, my point&click forecast for Wednesday went from rain likely, heavy at times, this morning, to showers likely with no mention of heavy this evening. . 

 

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And yet, my point&click forecast for Wednesday went from rain likely, heavy at times, this morning, to showers likely with no mention of heavy this evening. . 
 

I wouldn’t trust a point n click for anything, especially without a huge wording change in AFD


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Ida definitely represents a pretty significant flooding threat for the area, especially for the southern half of PA. Talking big picture of our region as a whole, we’ve been fairly wet as of late.. with the remnants of Fred being the big recent rain event. We’re not saturated, but flash flood and headwater guidance are such that a 3-6”+ type event would likely send tributaries to moderate or major flood categories. 

For example, here’s today’s headwater guidance in CTP region. 

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So this shows the estimated rainfall to reach each category (minor, moderate, major) at 1hr, 3hr, 6hr, and 12hr timeframes. The Swatara at Harper Tavern for example would need about 5” in 12hrs to reach major flood stage.. definitely doable with the numbers the models are cranking out. 

Big key as always, track of what will be probably either a depression or remnant low once it gets to us. Track of the low just underneath PA in this setup puts at least some part of our region into where what’s left of the core tracks through, and that’s where the business end of this potential major rainfall and flooding will be at. Given how organized this hurricane was (and still is), it’s likely to maintain a notable core remnant. That is where within the overall event you could see say 2-4”+ in under 6hrs, which would deal major issues on small and some bigger tributaries. As far as the main stem Susquehanna, its going to depend on the location of the swath of excessive rainfall. If it targets southern half of PA like the Euro does, it doesn’t quite get the whole basin and might not deal much more than minor flooding on the lower end of the Susquehanna main stem. If it tracks more like the GFS seems to have today, which catches more of northern PA and all the West Branch and Juniata basins.. response on the main stem would likely be more significant. 

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31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's amateur hour over on the main IDA thread.   Seeing posts saying 'I was not expecting" or "It's going to do this" from people who not qualified to be making definitive statements about anything of this magnitude. 

 

lmao yeah i saw this on other boards. people were like WOW I WASNT EXPECTING THIS!! despite the fact NHC had this getting to 140mph the day before. there was just a ton of people downplaying it or thinking they somehow knew it wouldn't get powerful lol

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