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Central PA - Summer 2021


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50 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

As we get closer to Ida's remnants, whats the take on rainfall we would actually receive in The Susquehanna Valley?

CTP this morning is saying a general 2-4" across most of Central PA, with some spots potentially getting up to 6". This seems less than what the consensus was last evening, but I'm far from an expert with tropical. 

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39 minutes ago, Voyager said:

See...even the NWS gets it. Look how they painted the 4-6 inch gradient AROUND Schuylkill County. There is ALWAYS a dip in qpf here.. Somehow, my location always ends up getting the shaft...

FB_IMG_1630324131668.jpg

Man, this looks like our snow maps in the winter in Pittsburgh lol.

 

honestly I’m fine with missing this one though.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

See...even the NWS gets it. Look how they painted the 4-6 inch gradient AROUND Schuylkill County. There is ALWAYS a dip in qpf here.. Somehow, my location always ends up getting the shaft...

FB_IMG_1630324131668.jpg

Some of the models really trended south overnight...the NAM this morning was a fringe job for even my area. Heaviest precip was well south in MD/VA. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Some of the models really trended south overnight...the NAM this morning was a fringe job for even my area. Heaviest precip was well south in MD/VA. 

Just like winter. Hook you in and give you hope and then, boom. Fringe job. Let's hope, as in winter, they trend back north...

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I hope some interviews the harbor master will that recorded the 149mph sustained winds with guest to 179mph from his ship’s instrument. This has to be the best verifiable high end CAT 4 ever and I suspect it will be upgraded on analysis. As soon as it started RI at the rate o f Wilma I knew she would be special


.

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36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I hope some interviews the harbor master will that recorded the 149mph sustained winds with guest to 179mph from his ship’s instrument. This has to be the best verifiable high end CAT 4 ever and I suspect it will be upgraded on analysis. As soon as it started RI at the rate o f Wilma I knew she would be special


.

Strongest America storm ever, if verified. Which it basically has been. 

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CTP's 2 pm forecast discussion on Ida's rain ...

Quote

The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled frontal
boundary as it progresses to the northeast, bringing ample
moisture to the region. Model guidance continues to increase
QPF amounts and bring greater QPF amounts more northward.
However, the greatest QPF amounts will still remain in the
southern half of Pennsylvania. The NAM, GFS, and Euro are in
good agreement with the placement and amounts of QPF. The
southern tier may receive 4 to 6 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts possible. Central Pennsylvania will likely
receive 2 to 4 inches of rain. Further north, totals are about
an inch. Flash Flood Watch is in effect Wednesday morning
through Thursday morning for most of Pennsylvania except for the
northern counties. Turn around don`t drown.

By Thursday afternoon, Ida moisture will be leaving the region
and high pressure will be build in behind. All rain should end
by late Thursday afternoon and early Thursday evening. The
late-week air mass will be cooler and dry. Friday and Saturday
will be clear with seasonable temperatures and low humidity.

 

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8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Gut tells me this trends south and heaviest runs northern MD.   

TT does not have soundings availability for the Icon but the stall scenario, whether for us or south, is a huge deal if it happened.  That is Lee/Agnes territory then.   The only way my place gets into an actual flood is if something comes over the mountain (not impossible per some info I read) but my basement will not like double digit rain.   The flood possibility here is the lake at Fort Ritchie.  Apparently there is a scenario where that lake could flood my house in PA.

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24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon stalls the low.  Life threatening out this way.

 

image.thumb.png.804b276822c2f8257828872d18a8a265.png

 

14 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Gut tells me this trends south and heaviest runs northern MD.   

Horst mentioned that he felt impacts would not be that significant due to the very fast movement of the low, so the Icon solution is interesting to say the least. 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

TT does not have soundings availability for the Icon but the stall scenario, whether for us or south, is a huge deal if it happened.  That is Lee/Agnes territory then.   The only way my place gets into an actual flood is if something comes over the mountain (not impossible per some info I read) but my basement will not like double digit rain.   The flood possibility here is the lake at Fort Ritchie.  Apparently there is a scenario where that lake could flood my house in PA.

Lake Royer lol.   My dad worked at Richie and Site R for many years and was one of the last to leave.  Back in the 90’s the lake was stocked with fish and family members were allowed to get into the base.   Good times 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Horst mentioned that he felt impacts would not be that significant due to the very fast movement of the low, so the Icon solution is interesting to say the least. 

Yea, not a forecast at all but not every day a 12-20" qpf map shows up.  Cannot tell which shadow of yellow we are actually under and no soundings make it a guess.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Lake Royer lol.   My dad worked at Richie and Site R for many years and was one of the last to leave.  Back in the 90’s the lake was stocked with fish and family members were allowed to get into the base.   Good times 

Not sure if it is still stocked but there are a ton of fish there.  During summer weekends there are lots of boats on the main lake.  They are starting to open stores in the barracks now. 

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Horst mentioned that he felt impacts would not be that significant due to the very fast movement of the low, so the Icon solution is interesting to say the least. 

One thing I will add to this since there are 3 or more models showing double digits totals in PA....those models have the low taking about 24 hours to traverse the general area.  Not a stall like the Icon but still fairly slow moving.  So the fast moving theory is still open for discussion. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One thing I will add to this since there are 3 or more models showing double digits totals in PA....those models have the low taking about 24 hours to traverse the general area.  Not a stall like the Icon but still fairly slow moving.  So the fast moving theory is still open for discussion. 

I’m more wish casting the rain to miss.   I can handle 2-4” of rain but 6” or more would really damage the courses 

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