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Central PA - Summer 2021


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21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm rooting for a last minute shift west for sure . I'm fine with a couple wraparound downpours but a 2-4" or 3-5" event would be fun to track 

Oh boy. You bet it would! it would also make for an interesting ride from Tamaqua to Tower City to Sunbury Monday morning. Perhaps a soggy, wet Pillow?

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Voyager most of us don’t need more heavy rain at this time after the storms from a few days ago. 
@Bubbler86 might disagree, but otherwise I am good with missing more heavy rain this time!

I was more following the model madness vs. Begging on the rain.  Do not want anyone's basement to flood.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I almost spit out my morning coffee when I just read in the Tropical Storm Henri New England thread this post from our old friend Eskimo Joe.

“Yup. Lots of early "storm cancel" posts here in this thread.”

He is the king of early storm cancel every year….unbelievable!

And he was the "man" for my first back in PA snowstorm in NOV of '18.  He called it while others were poo poo.  Lol

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EJ is also incredibly smart and knows what he's talking about- I think the thing about him is, he is a true weenie at heart that likes "big game" weather. If he gets a sense that the threat of a big game is diminishing, he moves on. Sometimes he might end up looking foolish but way more often he's on to something.

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53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

EJ is also incredibly smart and knows what he's talking about- I think the thing about him is, he is a true weenie at heart that likes "big game" weather. If he gets a sense that the threat of a big game is diminishing, he moves on. Sometimes he might end up looking foolish but way more often he's on to something.

He is smart and is very knowledgeable.

I was just amused with his warning others of being too early with canceling the storm, when that is his specialty.

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The HRRR still giving parts of LSV a thumping.   Waynesboro just picked up 1 1/4" of rain in 40 min.  Rain Forest tropical downpour.  Nothing in the 'Ville so far. 

image.png.025d991b4be20ca7b2b6cfad93e99776.png

 

 

I was just going to post this. The HRRR has been pretty consistent with bringing Henri into Eastern PA. I'd get 5-6 inches of rain out of it if it verified as depicted.

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10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I was just going to post this. The HRRR has been pretty consistent with bringing Henri into Eastern PA. I'd get 5-6 inches of rain out of it if it verified as depicted.

Yea and I keep posting it because 1) The Hrrr usually does not show qpf in that amounts.  2) It will not let go of the low coming in so far south and west them looping back over PA.  I know better than to try and forecast this myself but still something to keep an eye on.  And with tropical systems the model qpf's are frequently low in the areas that end up with the most.

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea and I keep posting it because 1) The Hrrr usually does not show qpf in that amounts.  2) It will not let go of the low coming in so far south and west them looping back over PA.  I know better than to try and forecast this myself but still something to keep an eye on.  And with tropical systems the model qpf's are frequently low in the areas that end up with the most.

True, and tropical systems don't always follow the GFS/NAM/EURO depictions. There always seems to be a surprise or two in how it eventually plays out.

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48 minutes ago, Voyager said:

True, and tropical systems don't always follow the GFS/NAM/EURO depictions. There always seems to be a surprise or two in how it eventually plays out.

Even if it does not loop as far west as the HRRR is predicting, I bet there are some 2-4" totals in this area of PA as the moisture streams back upon the trough....loop back and we go 6-10" lollipops and expanding the zone up into NE PA. 

image.png.e0432585efecce0317788082a3b05ab9.png

 

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