Voyager Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Finished off with 2.96" in 24 hours. 2.86" yesterday, and another 0.10" after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: That is some impressive rain totals!! Wow. . sure is. Funny thing is I thought Lanco would be on the low side, while most other regions had shown this for a while. Wife got a text to go to work a different way. Roads under water just south of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 19, 2021 Author Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: I've got to give props to NWS for holding the line on the flood side of the forecasts. I'll admit that I didnt see that potential showing up on the models (for LSV). Looking at NAM'rs inside 24 i wasnt seeing it, but yeah...they got that right for sure. Little water in garage last evening so I was dong some cleanup. 3rd time in 18 yrs here and other 2 times were impressive rains as well. On the severe side, we really didnt have much more than run o da mill thunder and lightening (with very few CTG strikes). I'll take that part as a win. That said I took a couple bites outta the crow to keep my word, but that's all. 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: That is some impressive rain totals!! Wow. . I thought my area maximized on that line that went through - I only had rain for 30 minutes and got over the 2" mark during that time. The southern half to 2/3rds of the county got into an additional band that came out of Maryland and kept the rain cranking for a few hours, hence the super lofty totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Looking ahead the GFS has several days in the low to mid 90's through August....Euro has maybe one and CMC has none. All 3 have East PA seeing outer bands from Henri (or enhanced from) meaning two Tropical related systems affecting PA in one week. Numerous other almost daily rain chances with tonight and tomorrow AM being one to watch for a shot at a more steady rain as a S/W goes by to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Looking ahead the GFS has several days in the low to mid 90's through August....Euro has maybe one and CMC has none. All 3 have East PA seeing outer bands from Henri (or enhanced from) meaning two Tropical related systems affecting PA in one week. Numerous other almost daily rain chances with tomorrow being one to watch for a more steady rain as a S/W goes by to the south. Our new normal of a never-ending summer seems to be coming into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Our new normal of a never-ending summer seems to be coming into focus. CFS really kicks the country into early fall Mid Sept with no major heat between now and then. Just a trend watcher of course as to using the CFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2.0" on the nose for me. A nice little weather event. No flooding issues around here but have heard of a few in Lancaster City and of course York City where things were significantly worse. Lower levels are still quite saturated and I only dropped to a low of 73 last night. I don't see much in the way of precip the next couple of days outside of some spotty activity. Guess it's time to see if Henri is gonna smack Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: CFS really kicks the country into early fall Mid Sept with no major heat between now and then. Just a trend watcher of course as to using the CFS. That would be nice. In fairness, the normal high doesn’t drop into the 70s at MDT until the 12th anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That would be nice. In fairness, the normal high doesn’t drop into the 70s at MDT until the 12th anyway. Yea, I personally am not calling 70's and low 80's in early Sept anything other than ok. I really do not expect real fall weather until October. Just no 90's in Sept and certainly no "heat waves" however one may categorize them. If the GFS hot days next week are whittled down to match the other two, we may be done with extreme heat....maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I thought my area maximized on that line that went through - I only had rain for 30 minutes and got over the 2" mark during that time. The southern half to 2/3rds of the county got into an additional band that came out of Maryland and kept the rain cranking for a few hours, hence the super lofty totals. Was checking around a bit and a number of stations had ten minute periods where they saw .7-.8" of rain, pretty darn impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I personally am not calling 70's and low 80's in early Sept anything other than ok. I really do not expect real fall weather until October. Just no 90's in Sept and certainly no "heat waves" however one may categorize them. If the GFS hot days next week are whittled down to match the other two, we may be done with extreme heat....maybe. I would say there’s a better than 70% chance that most places in PA have already reached their highest temperature for 2021. But it could still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Was checking around a bit and a number of stations had ten minute periods where they saw .7-.8" of rain, pretty darn impressive. Guessing one of them hit my area, as I only get water in when extremely heavy rains pond on back porch. Thats when the garage springs a leak. Fortunately we hope to update portch next year and that goes away. @Itstrainingtimeyes that last band is what really did it (and was what I should call the bubblesband cause he was watching that early yesterday when the HRRR started to hone in. had that not occurred, Ida felt a bit better w/ my hunch. All good. I'm just a hobbyist and eatin crow is part of the game for me/us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I would say there’s a better than 70% chance that most places in PA have already reached their highest temperature for 2021. But it could still happen. If I were putting a number on that I would put that at 90-95 percent when using averages, time of the year and models going out into several days into Sept now. At least for the LSV area. Most have hit 98-99 this year. But interesting odd's thought. MDT's high is 98 in the 3rd hottest June in recorded history. We can agree its not getting that hot under any circumstances until at least mid next week so take August 24th. In MDT history it's only gotten above 98 five days past that date so statistically the chance is probably less than 1-2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Welp now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Welp now what? Rain for south MD border counties tonight? Scatted convection everywhere today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If I were putting a number on that I would put that at 90-95 percent when using averages, time of the year and models going out into several days into Sept now. At least for the LSV area. Most have hit 98-99 this year. But interesting odd's thought. MDT's high is 98 in the 3rd hottest June in recorded history. We can agree its not getting that hot under any circumstances until at least mid next week so take August 24th. In MDT history it's only gotten above 98 five days past that date so statistically the chance is probably less than 1-2%. Indeed, it’s probably a thought that applies more to PIT, where the max so far is 92, and there are 92 times August 24 or later where the temperature has been 93 or higher. Note that that doesn’t mean 92 years, as 10 of those days were in 1881, 7 in 1884, etc. All in all, it amounts to 38 years out of 150 (25%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Indeed, it’s probably a thought that applies more to PIT, where the max so far is 92, and there are 92 times August 24 or later where the temperature has been 93 or higher. Note that that doesn’t mean 92 years, as 10 of those days were in 1881, 7 in 1884, etc. Right, its hard to put the odd's on a statewide basis. I agree that there is a much better chance Pitt hits 93 over the next 30-45 days vs MDT hitting 99. If I am manipulating the data correctly, there have only been 5 recordings of 100 or above in PA this summer and all at COOP stations so no official stations. Seems fairly low but not sure if it is. Ship hit it two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Right, its hard to put the odd's on a statewide basis. I agree that there is a much better chance Pitt hits 93 over the next 30-45 days vs MDT hitting 99. If I am manipulating the data correctly, there have only been 5 recordings of 100 or above in PA this summer and all at COOP stations so no official stations. Seems fairly low but not sure if it is. Ship hit it two days. If I were offered a bet where if MDT doesn’t hit 99 the rest of the way, I get $5,000, and if it does, my punishment is death, I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, TimB84 said: If I were offered a bet where if MDT doesn’t hit 99 the rest of the way, I get $5,000, and if it does, my punishment is death, I would take it. Yikes. This just ratcheted up a bit. I think Nut owes me a beer (evening beer, not a beach beer in a bucket) so I would only be up for taking that beer and parlaying with my own beer as my wager on the next bet. A little to no lose situation. That Nut Beer is like an extra draft pick in my back pocket right now. Do I use it and risk coming away with nothing or trade it for more gains? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yikes. This just ratcheted up a bit. I think Nut owes me a beer (evening beer, not a beach beer in a bucket) so I would only be up for taking that beer and parlaying with my own beer as my wager on the next bet. A little to no lose situation. That Nut Beer is like an extra draft pick in my back pocket right now. Do I use it and risk coming away with nothing or trade it for more gains? Sounds like it has to be at least a 2nd rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Sounds like it has to be at least a 2nd rounder. It would be a second round if I win a bet on the parlay :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12Z Nam. Notice the MB is fairly high so just a TS but was probably a Cat 1 on LI landfall. Lancaster county and east picks up decent rain Sat night in the moisture stream coming from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 @Cashtown_Coop, Nam likes you for the winner tonight. 3K is similar, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @Cashtown_Coop, Nam likes you for the winner tonight. 3K is similar, I don't think I will get anything, so nice out today. Not hot or humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, paweather said: I don't think I will get anything, so nice out today. Not hot or humid. The HRRR is riding the hot hand for the LSV and he (or she) says you get a T. That sun is s till a little toasty for my liking today. Not bad in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 19, 2021 Author Share Posted August 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, paweather said: I don't think I will get anything, so nice out today. Not hot or humid. Definitely not hot, my dewpoint is 68 though. Breeze and clouds help make it feel nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR is riding the hot hand for the LSV and he (or she) says you get a T. That sun is s till a little toasty for my liking today. Not bad in the shade. It is beautiful here right now but we shall see on the T-storm. Might as well get them while we can for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Definitely not hot, my dewpoint is 68 though. Breeze and clouds help make it feel nice. Looks like a good couple of days in store. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 19, 2021 Author Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Was checking around a bit and a number of stations had ten minute periods where they saw .7-.8" of rain, pretty darn impressive. That's spot on work my friend - my highest 10 minute interval was between 7:07 and 7:17 last evening when .83" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: It is beautiful here right now but we shall see on the T-storm. Might as well get them while we can for now. I meant T as in Trace but not making a predict. Lots of on and off showers the next few days starting tomorrow (modeled). Especially East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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