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Central PA - Summer 2021


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Snipped from CTP's latest disco:

TOR Watch #401 remains in effect until 9 PM for southern half of
central PA east of the Alleghenies. 40-50kt deep-layer shear
profiles in place with 0-3km SRH values 200-300+ m2s2. Discrete
rotating cells and or bowing line segments may be possible,
producing locally damaging winds and a possible tornado or two.
This atmosphere is as sheared as I have seen in central PA, and
spinups can happen rapidly, so we`ll be watching closely
throughout the afternoon and early evening.
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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

They have to be country wide from TT, but why not?   How much for El Paso? 

Too soon. Remember that time in February when El Paso got a bunch of snow and the east got a bunch of digital snow that became mostly rain all the way to Canada?

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Snipped from CTP's latest disco:

TOR Watch #401 remains in effect until 9 PM for southern half of
central PA east of the Alleghenies. 40-50kt deep-layer shear
profiles in place with 0-3km SRH values 200-300+ m2s2. Discrete
rotating cells and or bowing line segments may be possible,
producing locally damaging winds and a possible tornado or two.
This atmosphere is as sheared as I have seen in central PA, and
spinups can happen rapidly, so we`ll be watching closely
throughout the afternoon and early evening.

Yeah, the shear and CAPE is willllllldly high. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Snipped from CTP's latest disco:

TOR Watch #401 remains in effect until 9 PM for southern half of
central PA east of the Alleghenies. 40-50kt deep-layer shear
profiles in place with 0-3km SRH values 200-300+ m2s2. Discrete
rotating cells and or bowing line segments may be possible,
producing locally damaging winds and a possible tornado or two.
This atmosphere is as sheared as I have seen in central PA, and
spinups can happen rapidly, so we`ll be watching closely
throughout the afternoon and early evening.

guess they like this look eh?

image.thumb.png.9906aa674aaa54ee1835268171fa9e84.png

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Currently at .02" of rain...there is a path (my specific location) to not see another drop of rain today. This assumes that what is currently on radar doesn't grow, reform, etc. Don't think it will happen but it could...

Yeah we certainly could get split here by the main tranches of rain, and to be honest, that's what much of the guidance had been hinting at the last 12 hours or so.  Just not my summer, guess that's what I deserve for choosing a handle name of Snowman *shrug*

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah we certainly could get split here by the main tranches of rain, and to be honest, that's what much of the guidance had been hinting at the last 12 hours or so.  Just not my summer, guess that's what I deserve for choosing a handle name of Snowman *shrug*

You have repeatedly been left to dry. Literally. And it looks like it might happen again. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You have repeatedly been left to dry. Literally. And it looks like it might happen again. 

looking at radar, im thinking you might get more than me as the asscrack looks to be headed right for me here in lanco......

go ahead...enjoy the visual.  

 

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On the current radar I don't see any sign of the Johnstown severe TRW / possible Tornado.  There's absolutely nothing out there.  I'm referencing WunderMap radar.  I picked up a whopping 0.05" with that line of rain the passed through here about 90 minutes ago.  Stuff is going to have to form overhead out of nothing since the closest precip upstream is up NW towards Ebensburg.  Currently 77.7 with a dp of 71.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It does...I'd rather have no rain (or the .02" that I've mustered) than severe weather any day and night. I can water my lawn but I'll need help fixing damaged property. 

With all the lawn watering I have been doing the last two years I am finding that the "old wives tale" of nitrogen from the sky is partially true.  1/4" of rain is better than 1/2 of water from the pipes. 

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