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Central PA - Summer 2021


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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service State College PA
415 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAC041-043-099-192215-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FA.Y.0064.210719T2015Z-210719T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland PA-Dauphin PA-Perry PA-
415 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
  Northeastern Cumberland County in south central Pennsylvania...
  Western Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Perry County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 615 PM EDT.

* At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small
  stream flooding. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Harrisburg, Lower Allen, Camp Hill, New Cumberland, Enola,
  Lemoyne, Wormleysburg, Millersburg, Marysville, Shiremanstown,
  Duncannon, West Fairview, New Buffalo, Rockville, Liverpool,
  Halifax, Dauphin, Harrisburg Area Community College and City
  Island.

Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inches is expected over the area.
This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some areas west of Millersburg are over 3" and they might not be done.   Probably no way at all to check when the last time an area had a forecast of Sunny and ended up with 3" of rain. 

Freaky events happen. Laast one we had was 2018, when about 5 inches fell in an hour. And it was only about a 2 mile wide area. Penndot had their work cut out for them. 2 separate areas where the road was washed away along with the pipe that was under the road. I also had damage here also and a nasty cleanup.

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1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

Freaky events happen. Laast one we had was 2018, when about 5 inches fell in an hour. And it was only about a 2 mile wide area. Penndot had their work cut out for them. 2 separate areas where the road was washed away along with the pipe that was under the road. I also had damage here also and a nasty cleanup.

No doubt but was the forecast Sunny?  LOL.  When they do not forecast rain that does not mean they are saying 0 percent chance but probably < 20%.  All the Meso's had rain showers moving through the LSV today.  Even the GFS had rain.    The Precip map for today, when done, is going to be a very large area of rain that has fallen. 

 

I am not bashing CTP vs. pointing out/questioning how rare of an event this is.  To have hundreds of miles of a forecast area get over .5" of rain when the forecast was sunny. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt but was the forecast Sunny?  LOL.  When they do not forecast rain that does not mean they are saying 0 percent chance but probably < 20%.  All the Meso's had rain showers moving through the LSV today.  Even the GFS had rain.    The Precip map for today, when done, is going to be a very large area of rain that has fallen. 

 

I am not bashing CTP vs. pointing out/questioning how rare of an event this is.  To have hundreds of miles of a forecast area get over .5" of rain when the forecast was sunny. 

I know yesterday the forecast was a 20% chance of showers an t storm. This morning not even mentioned 

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38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some areas west of Millersburg are over 3" and they might not be done.   Probably no way at all to check when the last time an area had a forecast of Sunny and ended up with 3" of rain. 

That would be a daunting, tedious task to say the least.

That said, there’s a fair amount of archive data including zone forecasts at (don’t laugh): 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

If you had a specific date(s) in mind, but I realize there’s almost zero chance of that.

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13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That would be a daunting, tedious task to say the least.

That said, there’s a fair amount of archive data including zone forecasts at (don’t laugh): 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

If you had a specific date(s) in mind, but I realize there’s almost zero chance of that.

Yea, I was not asking anyone for an answer.  Just a question for the air.  Case in point, Ctp zones went from sunny to t-storms likely in an instant today so there is very little limit to how incredibly tedious of a task it would be. 

 

Now on Iowa State....I have seen examples their work before. 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I was not asking anyone for an answer.  Just a question for the air.  Case in point, Ctp zones went from sunny to t-storms likely in an instant today so there is very little limit to how incredibly tedious of a task it would be

 

Now on Iowa State....I have seen examples their work before. 

Exactly. These offices issue several zone forecasts a day. Unless you knew specifically what day you were looking for, it would be an impossible task. I would imagine such a link would be useful for some purposes, but not this. It was more a way to chuckle about Iowa State again.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Exactly. These offices issue several zone forecasts a day. Unless you knew specifically what day you were looking for, it would be an impossible task. I would imagine such a link would be useful for some purposes, but not this. It was more a way to chuckle about Iowa State again

Let's face it.  Iowa State has vaulted over paw paw and pillow.  

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