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Summer Banter 2021


doncat
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1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

look man it's 2021, if you are transitioning that's nobody's business but your own

Will, when I go, I don’t intend to take anything or one with me. The transitioning you may be thinking of is quite beside the point at my age. The epitaph I requested would have your brand of irreverence that I would enjoy if I was still here. However you do have a point who, what, when and how you leave should be your own business. As always …..

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At Phoenix, the preliminary low temperature was 91°. That would break the existing record highest minimum temperature for June 19, which is 86°. That record was set in 1958 and tied in 1959. Today's preliminary figure would also be the 4th consecutive minimum temperature of 90° or above. That would further extend this year's June record and would be the earliest 4 consecutive-day stretch on record.  The existing record was set during July 8-11, 2020, the opening part of a all-time record-tying 7 consecutive days. The historically-hot summer of 2020 would go on to have a second 7-day stretch.

2020 saw a record 28 such days, which smashed the old record of 15 such days, which was set in 2003 and tied in 2013. Prior to 1934, Phoenix had never had such a high minimum temperature. It now averages 7.4 per year (1991-2020 climate period), which is up from 4.1 per year during the preceding climate period.

 

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23 hours ago, rclab said:

Will, when I go, I don’t intend to take anything or one with me. The transitioning you may be thinking of is quite beside the point at my age. The epitaph I requested would have your brand of irreverence that I would enjoy if I was still here. However you do have a point who, what, when and how you leave should be your own business. As always …..

while I hope you are with us for a long time my friend, rest easy knowing I will visit your plot to water the flowers and shine the headstone.

myself, I am requesting my ashes be thrown into a tornado and scattered over Kansas.

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OK guys I need you to weigh in on this matter.  My wife is a teacher and was doing a lesson on the weather when she proceeded to tell me that when the weather man says there is a 40% chance of rain it means that 40% of the AREA may receive rain.  Upon further investigation that is not the case either.

According to the National Weather Service, Probability of Precipitation or (PoP) is “PoP = C x A where “C” = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where “A” = the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it occurs at all.”

Most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur in 80% of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. (PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%.)

As an avid fan of the weather I never understood this to be the case. I was always under the impression that if there is 30% chance of showers that we have a 30% chance of seeing rain (which in my head means its not going to rain at all).  Apparently other people think that if its says 30% its going to rain 30% of the day, which I do not know of anyone who ever came to that conclusion. In any case I would like to hear your thoughts on this matter and how you interpreted that.  Never in my life have I heard a MET even refer to precipitation in this matter. 

 

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3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

OK guys I need you to weigh in on this matter.  My wife is a teacher and was doing a lesson on the weather when she proceeded to tell me that when the weather man says there is a 40% chance of rain it means that 40% of the AREA may receive rain.  Upon further investigation that is not the case either.

According to the National Weather Service, Probability of Precipitation or (PoP) is “PoP = C x A where “C” = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where “A” = the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it occurs at all.”

Most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur in 80% of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. (PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%.)

As an avid fan of the weather I never understood this to be the case. I was always under the impression that if there is 30% chance of showers that we have a 30% chance of seeing rain (which in my head means its not going to rain at all).  Apparently other people think that if its says 30% its going to rain 30% of the day, which I do not know of anyone who ever came to that conclusion. In any case I would like to hear your thoughts on this matter and how you interpreted that.  Never in my life have I heard a MET even refer to precipitation in this matter. 

 

Never liked the use of probability percentages in a forecast...as you mentioned it has always caused confusion....have always believed that a properly worded forecast is the way to do it. 

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On 6/21/2021 at 7:01 PM, wishcast_hater said:

OK guys I need you to weigh in on this matter.  My wife is a teacher and was doing a lesson on the weather when she proceeded to tell me that when the weather man says there is a 40% chance of rain it means that 40% of the AREA may receive rain.  Upon further investigation that is not the case either.

According to the National Weather Service, Probability of Precipitation or (PoP) is “PoP = C x A where “C” = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where “A” = the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it occurs at all.”

Most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur in 80% of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. (PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%.)

As an avid fan of the weather I never understood this to be the case. I was always under the impression that if there is 30% chance of showers that we have a 30% chance of seeing rain (which in my head means its not going to rain at all).  Apparently other people think that if its says 30% its going to rain 30% of the day, which I do not know of anyone who ever came to that conclusion. In any case I would like to hear your thoughts on this matter and how you interpreted that.  Never in my life have I heard a MET even refer to precipitation in this matter. 

 

I look at PoP like i do svr wx risks..

Ie "15% of seeing dmg winds within a 25 mi radius" 

Ill never forget the tornado that happened in Nj on a day that was generally mostly sunny with iso tstorms (no svr risk outlined by spc) 

Weather will do what it wants

 

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On 6/19/2021 at 11:34 PM, Will - Rutgers said:

while I hope you are with us for a long time my friend, rest easy knowing I will visit your plot to water the flowers and shine the headstone.

myself, I am requesting my ashes be thrown into a tornado and scattered over Kansas.

Will, while in Kansas, give my best to the broom rider. I found Margaret Hamilton naturally attractive and very talented. As always …..

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Fresh off yesterday's June-record 93° temperature, Victoria, BC has set a new daily record high for June 26. At 10 am PDT, the temperature was 86°. That broke the previous daily record of 85°, which was set in 2017.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest, 10 am temperatures included:

Eugene, OR: 92°
Lytton, BC: 92°
Portland: 82°
Seattle: 85°

 

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9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 2 pm PDT, Seattle had a temperature of 96° today. That broke the daily and monthly record high figure of 90°, which was set on June 26, 2006. It also tied the monthly record that was first set on June 9, 1955 and tied on June 30, 1995 and June 25, 2017.

Don didn't Seattle hit 102?

 

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