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Upstate/Eastern New York


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14 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Latest CPC medium-long range..

Gfs brings some more below average temps D 7+ behind a CF..

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610temp.new (13).gif

gfs_T2ma_us_31 (1).png

Loving it, we are going hiking in the Adirondacks the last 5 days of the month.

Brisk, glorious bike ride to work this morning.  48F when I left home under clear skies and early sunshine.

 

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11 minutes ago, cny rider said:

U.S. Warmest Day of the Year Map

That’s interesting!  I think of July & August as the classic summer months (probably due to the school schedule),  but it does seem that June & July are the really hot months around here.  By August the really hot spells are *generally* shorter in duration and the nights are usually cooling off better, especially by late August.  

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Friday likely starts out dry, but remaining ridging influence will
fade through the day as height falls begin to work into western New
York as an upper wave drifts southeast through Ontario. This system
will draw moisture northward into the eastern Great Lakes and
northern Ohio Valley by late Friday into Friday night as surface
dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. This will bring an increasing
risk for convection as we move through the day Friday and into
Friday night.

Fairly impressive shear profiles develop with a nearly 50 kt low
level jet punching into western New York by Friday evening.
Resulting bulk shear (0-6 km) tops out near 50 kts overnight Friday
night. Cold front timing is still in question but looking to be
later Friday night which may overtake an unstable airmass expected
to be still in place, bringing at least some severe weather
potential before Saturday morning. SPC has placed all of western and
north central New York in a marginal risk in their latest day 3
outlook.

day3otlk_0730 (1).gif

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Sunday will be dry before the next potential for rain. An area of
low pressure will track northeast across the Great Lakes and into
Quebec on Monday, causing increased POPs starting early Monday
morning for WNY. As this sfc low tracks northeast, its widespread
shield of rain will approach and go mostly over and north of Lake
Ontario, but the southern and eastern portion of the area of showers
will overspread WNY. As the sfc low tracks northeast, the trailing
cold front will cross the area, extending the potential for showers.
As the area of low pressure takes a more northerly oriented track,
the frontal passage will slow down some over the area, increasing
the potential for a more prolonged shower/rain event. Some guidance
is suggesting, with the slower frontal passage, an additional wave
of low pressure will track northeast along the boundary, bringing
the potential for another round of rain Tuesday morning continuing
through most of the day. High pressure over the center of the
country should start to approach the region on Wednesday, providing
a dry day.

Temperatures during the long term period will be in the upper 70s to
mid 80s Sunday and Monday. Behind the passing front, temps on
Tuesday and Wednesday will drop to the mid 60s over the higher
elevations to the low 70s for the lower elevations.
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8 hours ago, winter_rules said:

That’s interesting!  I think of July & August as the classic summer months (probably due to the school schedule),  but it does seem that June & July are the really hot months around here.  By August the really hot spells are *generally* shorter in duration and the nights are usually cooling off better, especially by late August.  

I work seasonal construction and I can start to notice subtle changes before most (helps I also enjoy weather haha) I think you pretty much nailed august. 

I wake up at 5am daily and currently dont need any lights on by the time im downstairs. It will stay this way for a few more weeks until I realize I need the kitchen light on ect.. 

August is the first subtle hints at fall approaching. Toronto rarely sees 40s or even lower 50s for about 45-60 days in mid summer. Most nights from now until Mid august is 55-60F and above. After mid August though is when we get that first 49F and you can feel it in the air that the seasons are getting ready to change. Mid August-Mid October is one of my favourite times of the year for that. Still summer type weather most days but the first cool shots and leaves changing begins 

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On 6/15/2021 at 11:13 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Insane, its only June, July/August are warmer out there then June is.

image.png.c5fc0a52422c712ca9df12bf17486bc2.png

This is the type of Sizzle we need in the Cuse!  Sadly, we only get this type of warmup during midwinter. ;) Going to run my Planet Killing SUV continuously the rest of summer to help pump up the CO2! ;)

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Focus for this period will be on convection/severe weather
potential. Although it looks like Friday will start out dry, models
suggesting a decaying convective complex will start to ride into
western New York later in the morning. The ability for this
complex to maintain itself as it moves east across the area will
likely have a lot to say about convective potential later in
the afternoon and into the evening. The expectation is that at
least several hours of insolation will be needed for the
atmosphere to recover and destabilize sufficiently.

By late in the day Friday and into Friday evening, the area will be
in the midst of a surge of moist/warm advection in a strengthening
southwest flow. Although the better instability is expected to
remain south of the area across the Ohio Valley, wind fields begin
to ramp up with favorable shear profiles developing by Friday
evening with 0-6 km bulk shear values climbing to over 50 kts. This
will bring at least some severe weather potential late Friday/Friday
evening and possibly into the overnight hours with southwest
portions of the area now outlooked in a slight risk by SPC with the
remainder of the area remaining outlooked in a marginal risk.

With the larger scale trough still hanging over the region and a
surface cold front crossing the region, convection will remain
possible during the day Saturday before tapering down Saturday
night.

day2otlk_1730 (1).gif

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