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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


JTA66
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53 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Now a forecast of a wet week with showers every day maybe. It was a dry forecast 48hrs ago.

 

 

Yep take a look at the water vapor map Gulf is and Atlantic open for business to our south the pipeline is lining up and heading Northeast with Fred embedded in the flow to boot too. 

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After a low of 70 this morning,  I did manage to make it to 83 for a high, but the humidity is back.  Had run to the supermarket this morning and it was definitely noticeable.   The sun was in and out earlier but it's been generally overcast most of the afternoon.

Currently 79 with dp 68 and overcast.

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Today was absolutely lovely working outside with the heavy cloud cover. The only exceptions were when the clouds momentarily broke and the sun shone through, instantly raising the factor of uncomfortability, but thankfully those moments were far and few between. Hard to beat that summer sun angle I guess, though it's interesting to think that we now have the same amount of daylight as April 25th. It'll be the fall equinox in just over a month. :)

 

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So far had a low of 71 and high of 83 today, but with the changeable skies (mostly overcast), the temp has understandably fluctuated.  It is definitely feeling more humid out though and it's currently 82 with dp 71. 

Need a little rain here now. :( Have been looking at what appears to be subsidence just drying up the metro I95 corridor, with a band of showers to the south in MD and DE and a scattered band that shifted from the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, to the far north near the PA/NY border.

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If these CAMs come to fruition for tomorrow, there's a legit tornado threat for much of the Lehigh Valley towards the evening. Sounding below is for Berks county, there's some PDS TOR soundings coming out of Harrisburg on the 3k NAM. With ample daytime heating, along with a remnant tropical system moving to our west putting us in the warm sector with increased Storm Relative Helicity and Effective Shear... yeah it could mean lots of rotating cells like what we're seeing in Georgia and South Carolina today

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_31.png

nam4km_2021081718_032_40.42--75.81.png

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4 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Flood Advisories in northern DE, those storms have been sitting there for a few hours. Any posters down there?

82F/DP 72F

My current work site is just across the DMB in NJ and we got absolutely drenched this afternoon. Didn't see any flood conditions at the site nor on my way home through I-95 and 202 though. We also appeared to dodge several of the storms coming through in the morning and around noon though.

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Wound up with 0.21" of rain from the afternoon showers, not much but enough to knock the dust down. Total for August to date here is 0.72", we shall see if we do any catching up as the week goes on. A year ago we had over 12" here the 1st week of August, so we're balancing out a bit. Currently 78F, dp 75.

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Mount Holly on tomorrow:

With impressive curved
hodographs and low-level helicity values from 200 to 300 m2/s2,
there easily could be a quick spin up tornado or two. Again,
this depends on the exact track of the low and how much surface
heating we can realize tomorrow. Shear and helicity may be
enough to overcome the low CAPE values generally less than 2000
J/kg across the region.
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2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Appears to be a Berks and west event. Mid/upper Mont/Bucks maybe a .5" and lessens heading east. Basically a cloudy humid day w/some showers especially later this afternoon. Hope something "pops up" out of nowhere but not holding my breath...

74F / DP 72F  

It would be the second time this year a tropical entity moved through the region and our backyards had little to show for it. Elsa was a nothing burger here, too. Still, as Newman keeps mentioning, we'll have to keep an eye out for a line (maybe two?) of severe weather this evening into the overnight.

75F/DP 73F

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3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Appears to be a Berks and west event. Mid/upper Mont/Bucks maybe a .5" and lessens heading east. Basically a cloudy humid day w/some showers especially later this afternoon. Hope something "pops up" out of nowhere but not holding my breath...

74F / DP 72F  

Yeah we've gone from 1-2" possible on Monday to basically nothing now. Just humidity and cloudy skies. The hrrr and nam give 95 east basically a trace. The rgem suite though has 1-2" for the area with the mesos kind of in between but leaning more towards the nam with .25-.5". With the further west track though I'm leaning towards the HRRR and NAM being correct. Lehigh valley should still get a good soaking but nothing like the 3-5" being forecasted earlier in the week.

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Posting this not because I believe it, but because it's funny and deep down we're all weenies... HMON captures future Hurricane Henri into the coast. The GFS is similar, only it captures it into SNE. Same with the UKMET. Whether or not the Philly region gets any impact is up in the air (leaning hard no as of now), but fun to watch it evolve

hmon_ref_08L_38.png

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7 minutes ago, Newman said:

Posting this not because I believe it, but because it's funny and deep down we're all weenies... HMON captures future Hurricane Henri into the coast. The GFS is similar, only it captures it into SNE. Same with the UKMET. Whether or not the Philly region gets any impact is up in the air (leaning hard no as of now), but fun to watch it evolve

hmon_ref_08L_38.png

LOL I have been watching the track change further and further west before the N/NE direction change the past couple days.  It was originally progged to do a tight loop around Bermuda and out to sea but each subsequent update has it moving more and more westward before making the turn.

In any case, I've been getting on and off stratus this morning along with the general overcast.  Low this morning was 74 and it's currently 77, with dp 75. :yikes:

055528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

085927_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

It would be the second time this year a tropical entity moved through the region and our backyards had little to show for it. Elsa was a nothing burger here, too. Still, as Newman keeps mentioning, we'll have to keep an eye out for a line (maybe two?) of severe weather this evening into the overnight.

75F/DP 73F

 

25 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah we've gone from 1-2" possible on Monday to basically nothing now. Just humidity and cloudy skies. The hrrr and nam give 95 east basically a trace. The rgem suite though has 1-2" for the area with the mesos kind of in between but leaning more towards the nam with .25-.5". With the further west track though I'm leaning towards the HRRR and NAM being correct. Lehigh valley should still get a good soaking but nothing like the 3-5" being forecasted earlier in the week.

The thing we have going for us is it's tropical in nature. Stuff still could pan out better than expected with these DPs.

I've been outside since 7am replacing plugs/coil packs and such on the car...it's cloudy muggy as hell. It's hard to believe something won't develop eventually during the day/evening...a little afternoon sun would help.

75F / DP 74F

 

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12z GEFS is pretty interesting wrt Henri. There's a cluster of members that bring it into the Jersey shore now. Big time west trend over the last 24 hours. The storm looks to be getting it's act together now. Seems like the stronger members are further west while the weaker one's stay off to the east. Who here has a shore house I can ride out the storm at :lol::P

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

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9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z GEFS is pretty interesting wrt Henri. There's a cluster of members that bring it into the Jersey shore now. Big time west trend over the last 24 hours. The storm looks to be getting it's act together now. Seems like the stronger members are further west while the weaker one's stay off to the east. Who here has a shore house I can ride out the storm at :lol::P

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

GFS is either going score a massive victory this week over the hurricane guidance or be put to shame again in typical USA model fashion.

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