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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


JTA66
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Satellite still looks disheartening with SE PA on East is socked in the clouds with no end in sight. Still ML CAPE is continuing to build, up to 1000 j/kg through all of SE PA into the Lehigh Valley. 1500 j/kg poking up through Chester county. More expansive with the 1500 k/kg than the RAP has at this point. Will be interesting if we see some initiation soon in central PA.

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I don't expect the tornado threat to end up materializing, but I could definitely see a bow echo roll through the Philly area similar to last May's event, maybe not to the extreme that was. But even with all of us socked in clouds, the CAPE values should be sufficient enough to support some severe storms and the deep layer shear will help to maintain any line segments. We shall see, I think the NWS and SPC did a great job with this expressing the possible dangers of the event, while also recognizing the chance of failure as well. We might be leaning more so towards "failure" here, but that's what comes with living in this part of the country.

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7 minutes ago, Newman said:

I don't expect the tornado threat to end up materializing, but I could definitely see a bow echo roll through the Philly area similar to last May's event, maybe not to the extreme that was. But even with all of us socked in clouds, the CAPE values should be sufficient enough to support some severe storms and the deep layer shear will help to maintain any line segments. We shall see, I think the NWS and SPC did a great job with this expressing the possible dangers of the event, while also recognizing the chance of failure as well. We might be leaning more so towards "failure" here, but that's what comes with living in this part of the country.

check out the LI across SE PA. Already up to -7 in Bucks down through Philly somehow. Also I have no idea what the violent tornado parameter entails but it's above 1 now across SE PA. Agree that we probably won't see an outbreak but I think Iso tornado or 2 is definitely possible if we see a line develop. Things look pretty decent instability wise despite the cloud cover. I also agree wind will be the main threat. I bet SPC issues a meso in the next hour or so. My guess is we see a severe thunderstorm watch issued, would be pretty surprised with a TOR watch.

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11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Satellite still looks disheartening with SE PA on East is socked in the clouds with no end in sight. Still ML CAPE is continuing to build, up to 1000 j/kg through all of SE PA into the Lehigh Valley. 1500 j/kg poking up through Chester county. More expansive with the 1500 k/kg than the RAP has at this point. Will be interesting if we see some initiation soon in central PA.

I take this back re: clouds. Looks like maybe a break in them coming in SE PA? Anyone in Western Bucks/Montco seeing the sun? 

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MD to our west:

   Mesoscale Discussion 1388
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

   Areas affected...Central/South-Central PA...Central MD...Extreme
   Northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291721Z - 291915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Increase in storm coverage and intensity possible, with a
   corresponding threat for damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Convectively induced shortwave trough continues to
   progress quickly eastward across the upper OH Valley. Strongest
   forcing for ascent within this shortwave appears to be moving
   through central and southwest PA now, demarcated by a line of
   slightly higher reflectivity from roughly Clearfield County
   southwestward through Greene County. Estimated motion with the
   northern/central portion of the line is eastward at around 45 kt.
   Southern portion of this line appears to be a bit slower, with storm
   motion estimated to be east-southeastward at 35 kt. In both cases,
   this area of stronger ascent will continue to move eastward across
   PA and adjacent northern WV/western MD as the downstream air mass
   destabilizes.

   Abundant mid to upper level clouds are obscuring the low-level cloud
   field as well as tempering heating. Even so, some cumulus can still
   be seen across eastern areas of the region and temperatures have
   risen into the upper 70s/low 80s. Based on modified RAP forecast
   soundings, any remaining convective inhibition is minimal.
   Consequently, an increase in storm coverage and intensity seems
   possible as this shortwave continues eastward into this region over
   the next hour or two. The overall environment supports bowing line
   segments capable of damaging wind gusts with any more robust,
   long-lived storms.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/29/2021
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SPC up with the Tornado Watch (did see the Warning over in Western PA) -

 

Quote

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

TORNADO WATCH 401 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-009-011-013-017-025-027-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061-
067-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-119-133-
300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0401.210729T1825Z-210730T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BEDFORD             BERKS
BLAIR                BUCKS               CARBON
CENTRE               CHESTER             COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             DELAWARE
FRANKLIN             FULTON              HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA              LANCASTER           LEBANON
LEHIGH               MIFFLIN             MONROE
MONTGOMERY           MONTOUR             NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND       PERRY               PHILADELPHIA
SCHUYLKILL           SNYDER              UNION
YORK
$$
Quote

 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

TORNADO WATCH 401 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
041-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0401.210729T1825Z-210730T0100Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN
CAPE MAY             CUMBERLAND          GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             MORRIS              OCEAN
SALEM                SOMERSET            SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
Quote

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021

TORNADO WATCH 401 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0401.210729T1825Z-210730T0100Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX
$$

 

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18 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Looks like the "good stuff" will slide by just to your N. I was shocked, you're usually in the jackpot area...

Pink is tornado warning:

79F / DP 71F  

qu.jpg

Today's showers are half way through and so far I stand at a heavy trace-just under .10"

The bulk is about to move through and it's falling apart rapidly

 

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7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Gotta say, Philly and local burbs look pretty quiet as of now...

79F / DP 71F

quiet.jpg

Yes indeed, got a light shower here for about 20 minutes, right after we finished mowing the back, and while cutting up part of a tree (from the storm before Elsa). Now it's just cloudy and quite humid. Radar looking kind of unexciting for now.

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I just sat in the garage with the door open listening to the light rain. Heard a little bit of distant thunder but that's it so far. Received a tornado warning for Northern Berks but that's way far away from us here in Reading, however it looks like a cell might be forming to my west though, so we'll se if it turns into something. .06" in the gauge so far, temp 77 and DP 74.

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