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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


JTA66
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37 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

LOL  I think I saw one of those yesterday when I was out on the front of the house near my car.  First thing that came to mind based on the size was cicada killer. But I wasn't sure because it was too busy following me and I had no weapon like my spiked swatter or a broom. :lol:  I tried to wait for it to land when I got a little distance away, in order to see the front of it better, and it definitely wasn't a murder hornet or a bald-faced hornet (I have had to deal with the large bald-faced ones before).  But it was pretty big, but somewhat long and slender, and I believe the cicada killers nest in the ground, so they will hang around the ground like mine did.

Currently just hit 80 here and dp at 59.

It was BIG. Like I want a SAM missile battery to prevent further incursions. 

 

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My low this morning was a warmer 66. It's currently sunny and clear and 77 with dp slowly creeping up, but reasonable at 62.  Today will probably be about the last before the humidity starts to reappear.  Am also watching the disturbance down near FL that may become a TD in the next few days depending on the sheer.  If it does ever become a TS, it would be "Fred".

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*I am posting this as advice as we head closer to winter and in general. I posted this all in another board (NYC-centric) and wanted to share here too*

This is why using pre-1980 analogs simply do not work anymore in the warmer climate we now have. First of all, you have to take into account most NOAA/NCEP reanalysis data compiles anomalies based off certain climate eras, most notably being 1981-2010. So, here I will show you a very simple graph demonstrating the increase in temperature at the KJFK location since 1950:

1990438539_KLGAAnnualMaxTempGraph.png.d511d172452f11eebaa6633f7c9b8d84.png

 

So, obviously even a 2-3 degree increase will skew anomaly results dramatically. I went through Quasi-Biennial Oscillation data and pulled out all the winter years that featured moderate to significant averaged -QBO values (magnitudes of -10.00 or greater). I sorted them by 1950-1990 and 1991-2020. There were 10 cases I pulled out for the earlier time step and 7 for the more recent one. *Disclaimer* -> I am aware that synoptic and global atmospheric conditions are more than just dependent on the QBO. However, it has been postulated that -QBOs typically feature/favor lower averaged 500hPA heights over the United States and higher averaged 500hPa heights over the higher latitudes. Below you'll see the resultant maps:

oHopSi5VAa.png.7bb03d1206a9dcf404f01de83c9bf095.png

fV9Ob5tNLO.png.1c12240f7a5a2c36b628ab45de776a7b.png

 

My first thought when comparing these maps was the obvious smearing of much lower heights all across the board in the 1950-1990 time frame. Why is this? Because of a changing climate. You CAN NOT compare early early years in available data sets to current 1981-2010 climate averages. You will skew everything towards lower heights/colder averages. It's as simple as that. Also, it would be hard to dismiss there are *some* similarities to the two. Noticeably the lower averaged heights in China and Europe. However, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish whether or not the placement or trends of higher heights is by chance or reason. In the 1950-1990 map, the usual '-QBOs create higher heights in the high latitudes and colder weather in the mid-latitudes' notion could be supported by the data (however, perhaps caused by the skewing therefore not supporting it). In the 1991-2020 map, it is very hard to pick out any lower heights/colder areas in North America. Regardless of it all, if anything this exercise goes to show that analogs from before 1980 (that might be generous, maybe even 1990) should not be used or compiled into modern era anomaly maps/charts/graphs to avoid unnecessary skewing. I know lots of y'all know this, however if you go around on twitter or other boards and come across this... please ignore whoever posted it.

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3 hours ago, Newman said:

*I am posting this as advice as we head closer to winter and in general. I posted this all in another board (NYC-centric) and wanted to share here too*

This is why using pre-1980 analogs simply do not work anymore in the warmer climate we now have. First of all, you have to take into account most NOAA/NCEP reanalysis data compiles anomalies based off certain climate eras, most notably being 1981-2010. So, here I will show you a very simple graph demonstrating the increase in temperature at the KJFK location since 1950:

1990438539_KLGAAnnualMaxTempGraph.png.d511d172452f11eebaa6633f7c9b8d84.png

 

So, obviously even a 2-3 degree increase will skew anomaly results dramatically. I went through Quasi-Biennial Oscillation data and pulled out all the winter years that featured moderate to significant averaged -QBO values (magnitudes of -10.00 or greater). I sorted them by 1950-1990 and 1991-2020. There were 10 cases I pulled out for the earlier time step and 7 for the more recent one. *Disclaimer* -> I am aware that synoptic and global atmospheric conditions are more than just dependent on the QBO. However, it has been postulated that -QBOs typically feature/favor lower averaged 500hPA heights over the United States and higher averaged 500hPa heights over the higher latitudes. Below you'll see the resultant maps:

oHopSi5VAa.png.7bb03d1206a9dcf404f01de83c9bf095.png

fV9Ob5tNLO.png.1c12240f7a5a2c36b628ab45de776a7b.png

 

My first thought when comparing these maps was the obvious smearing of much lower heights all across the board in the 1950-1990 time frame. Why is this? Because of a changing climate. You CAN NOT compare early early years in available data sets to current 1981-2010 climate averages. You will skew everything towards lower heights/colder averages. It's as simple as that. Also, it would be hard to dismiss there are *some* similarities to the two. Noticeably the lower averaged heights in China and Europe. However, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish whether or not the placement or trends of higher heights is by chance or reason. In the 1950-1990 map, the usual '-QBOs create higher heights in the high latitudes and colder weather in the mid-latitudes' notion could be supported by the data (however, perhaps caused by the skewing therefore not supporting it). In the 1991-2020 map, it is very hard to pick out any lower heights/colder areas in North America. Regardless of it all, if anything this exercise goes to show that analogs from before 1980 (that might be generous, maybe even 1990) should not be used or compiled into modern era anomaly maps/charts/graphs to avoid unnecessary skewing. I know lots of y'all know this, however if you go around on twitter or other boards and come across this... please ignore whoever posted it.

Of course KLGA suffers from the same problematic heat island issues of most major airports in the US.....which always is a cause for pause - although the post obs adjustments to historical obs to "correct" the old warm bias is prevalent.....but are these adjustments correct? Are they adjusting to help support the story? All issues for those way beyond my pay grade.....

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FINALLY finished smoking/roasting that pork shoulder, took 15 hours. Way longer than I had thought it would take, but omg it's good. Anyway, it's noticeably warm out right now. Not looking forward to heating up again over the next few days, but at least I'll be int he office come Monday instead of out in the field.

image.png.000008de407f1389a6081b2e77c91726.png

I'm testing chrome in dark mode now. Kinda like it, kinda still getting used to it...

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My low so far this morning had been 70 and just as the temp was slowly starting to creep up a bit, in came a little pop up shower that was much appreciated.  It wasn't really expected given the warm front had already passed through here and formed a line that barreled through Jersey.

Currently getting some light rain (0.03" so far) and 69, with dp 67.

radar14-07252021.png

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16 hours ago, Newman said:

*I am posting this as advice as we head closer to winter and in general. I posted this all in another board (NYC-centric) and wanted to share here too*

This is why using pre-1980 analogs simply do not work anymore in the warmer climate we now have. First of all, you have to take into account most NOAA/NCEP reanalysis data compiles anomalies based off certain climate eras, most notably being 1981-2010. So, here I will show you a very simple graph demonstrating the increase in temperature at the KJFK location since 1950:

1990438539_KLGAAnnualMaxTempGraph.png.d511d172452f11eebaa6633f7c9b8d84.png

 

So, obviously even a 2-3 degree increase will skew anomaly results dramatically. I went through Quasi-Biennial Oscillation data and pulled out all the winter years that featured moderate to significant averaged -QBO values (magnitudes of -10.00 or greater). I sorted them by 1950-1990 and 1991-2020. There were 10 cases I pulled out for the earlier time step and 7 for the more recent one. *Disclaimer* -> I am aware that synoptic and global atmospheric conditions are more than just dependent on the QBO. However, it has been postulated that -QBOs typically feature/favor lower averaged 500hPA heights over the United States and higher averaged 500hPa heights over the higher latitudes. Below you'll see the resultant maps:

oHopSi5VAa.png.7bb03d1206a9dcf404f01de83c9bf095.png

fV9Ob5tNLO.png.1c12240f7a5a2c36b628ab45de776a7b.png

 

My first thought when comparing these maps was the obvious smearing of much lower heights all across the board in the 1950-1990 time frame. Why is this? Because of a changing climate. You CAN NOT compare early early years in available data sets to current 1981-2010 climate averages. You will skew everything towards lower heights/colder averages. It's as simple as that. Also, it would be hard to dismiss there are *some* similarities to the two. Noticeably the lower averaged heights in China and Europe. However, it becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish whether or not the placement or trends of higher heights is by chance or reason. In the 1950-1990 map, the usual '-QBOs create higher heights in the high latitudes and colder weather in the mid-latitudes' notion could be supported by the data (however, perhaps caused by the skewing therefore not supporting it). In the 1991-2020 map, it is very hard to pick out any lower heights/colder areas in North America. Regardless of it all, if anything this exercise goes to show that analogs from before 1980 (that might be generous, maybe even 1990) should not be used or compiled into modern era anomaly maps/charts/graphs to avoid unnecessary skewing. I know lots of y'all know this, however if you go around on twitter or other boards and come across this... please ignore whoever posted it.

As an anecdotal observation, and obviously not a solid prediction for some future extreme event given the issues in the arctic region that can move the PV into odd locations, but KPHL has not recorded a below 0F temp since January 19, 1994 (which was a -5 during an arctic outbreak that impacted the midwest to the east coast).

For us gardeners, it makes a difference in terms of the average of the yearly lowest min temps (over some "x" period of time) with respect to plant hardiness for temperate plants, and what might be planted that could survive (and thrive) in this area. And those values are part of what gets factored into the USDA hardiness zones.  The last closest-to-0 temp more recently, was a +2 on February 20, 2015.

Of course that is the "airport" temperature.  But there has definitely been an upward shift in temps - and moreso seen in the lows in winter.  In summer, the average night lows have also slowly edged up as well, but regarding the highs, it appears that will depend on the antecedent precipitation and ground moisture, which usually precludes our getting the occasional triple digit temps.  In fact, believe it or not, the last triple digit temp at KPHL was almost 10 years ago - a 101 on July 07, 2012.  Going into a summer with drought conditions definitely improves the chance of triple digits, but the general climatology here doesn't get us to that point with any consistent frequency when compared to other parts of the country, and proximity to the ocean is probably a big reason why.

And as a sidenote - yesterday afternoon, I was watching a seabreeze front come all the way inland, cut across Jersey, hop over the river, and slam right into NE Philly. :D

radar10-07242021.png

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22 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

If the thumb on that hand stays up we might get something here. Feels like a long shot, but I hear an occasional rumble of thunder anyway.

Screenshot_20210725-160655_copy_1320x1369_copy_801x830.thumb.png.c444b0142b1ad0a9e1e91f5748c298fe.png

It was all of 11 drops here. Looks like you’re in a better spot.

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Made it up to 88 here today and just got done a perfectly targeted pop-up shower (no convective thunder/lightning) to top off my hose-watering from Friday.  I got 0.33" from it and along with this morning's fringe popup, that makes it 0.36" so far for today.

Currently 80 and partly cloudy but the dp is is 77 (had already been in the mid-70s earlier).  :yikes:

 

radar33-07252021.png

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