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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021


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38 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I know it wasn’t meant this way it there is very little funny about what is going on out west. It is going to cause major issues.

Of course it is, and the 18z GFS translates that airmass east (though it flattens out the flow a little and it won’t be as extreme). Still, I see a 94 on that run.

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Pathetic if that would turn out true.  If it’s GFS lots of room for improvement.  Would hate for the second summer holiday to be shitty like Memorial Day, but I’m sure it will happen.

That’s the key, I would assume there will be some compromise between models like there always is and we get into the 70s most if not all days. That said, a dry and warm 4th of July weekend seems less likely than it once did. But models have struggled to get a grasp on pattern evolution lately.

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20 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That’s the key, I would assume there will be some compromise between models like there always is and we get into the 70s most if not all days. That said, a dry and warm 4th of July weekend seems less likely than it once did. But models have struggled to get a grasp on pattern evolution lately.

It definitely looks like the weather a week out is really not known.  Just the last few weeks when I check the weather app the weather in the extended forecast always seems to change pretty drastically.  This weekend for example, last week it looked like today would be rainy and 75-ish.  Obviously much different.  
 

As long as it isn’t cold and rainy I’ll be happy.  It can be 75 and sunny for the holiday.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

It definitely looks like the weather a week out is really not known.  Just the last few weeks when I check the weather app the weather in the extended forecast always seems to change pretty drastically.  This weekend for example, last week it looked like today would be rainy and 75-ish.  Obviously much different.  
 

As long as it isn’t cold and rainy I’ll be happy.  It can be 75 and sunny for the holiday.

We’re definitely in one of those areas on the fringes of different air masses in this pattern, so there’s still a wide range of possibilities for how this all plays out. The 12z GFS takes out the weekend rain so it’s definitely a little warmer but still a bit below average and relatively comfortable dew points, gives us a 4th of July weekend where everybody wins. (Though the entire pattern beyond midweek looks pretty trough-y.)

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7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

We’re definitely in one of those areas on the fringes of different air masses in this pattern, so there’s still a wide range of possibilities for how this all plays out. The 12z GFS takes out the weekend rain so it’s definitely a little warmer but still a bit below average and relatively comfortable dew points, gives us a 4th of July weekend where everybody wins. (Though the entire pattern beyond midweek looks pretty trough-y.)

Troughs can wait until the Fall, lol!  Give me hot, sunny summer followed by a crisp cool Fall, and a winter that we all want here.

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7 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Pathetic if that would turn out true.  If it’s GFS lots of room for improvement.  Would hate for the second summer holiday to be shitty like Memorial Day, but I’m sure it will happen.

What is “pathetic” about it? 

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

It would just be a pathetic high if it was only 60 in July.  Just a statement, not that deep.

It’s extremely unlikely, every July day in Pittsburgh’s history except 7/5/1972 (high of 59) has made it to at least 63.

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2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Also extremely unlikely Portland would stay above 107 for multiple days and yet they could hit 115 for two days

Definitely changes the narrative on what we think of as possible when it comes to extreme temperatures, though I would guess that due to geography, Portland has a little more variability in summer temperatures and therefore a little more capacity to break an all time heat record by 8 degrees than we would (though if it comes to pass, it’s still very shocking). Meanwhile, we have a ridge of our own in our neck of the woods and a few shots at that 90 degree day you’ve been craving.

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8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Definitely changes the narrative on what we think of as possible when it comes to extreme temperatures, though I would guess that due to geography, Portland has a little more variability in summer temperatures and therefore a little more capacity to break an all time heat record by 8 degrees than we would (though if it comes to pass, it’s still very shocking). Meanwhile, we have a ridge of our own in our neck of the woods and a few shots at that 90 degree day you’ve been craving.

I have a friend whole lives in the flat lands to the East of Seattle but before the mountains....she sent me a pic of her temp yesterday afternoon showing 104 just to let me see how real this was for them.  Way out of any concrete jungle influences.  She seems likely to break 110 for 2-3 straight days and I bet we see a 120 East of the mountains. 

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35 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Definitely changes the narrative on what we think of as possible when it comes to extreme temperatures, though I would guess that due to geography, Portland has a little more variability in summer temperatures and therefore a little more capacity to break an all time heat record by 8 degrees than we would (though if it comes to pass, it’s still very shocking). Meanwhile, we have a ridge of our own in our neck of the woods and a few shots at that 90 degree day you’ve been craving.

My take on that, is eventually we will see a heat wave similar to theirs.  It may be a while, but the fact that they will break all time records by that much is insane to even think.  I believe they are in a pretty decent drought, which helps fuel the heat, but I'd say we aren't immune to something similar at some point (may be many years).  I'd say them shooting to 115 would be like us jumping to 106 or 107.

The crazy thing is Portland and the NW may not see anything this extreme for decades and decades again.

 

Just to be clear.  I like heat, and do want to see us hit 100 soon, to break the drought there, but spiking that far above 100 would be too extreme.

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4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Just to be clear.  I like heat, and do want to see us hit 100 soon, to break the drought there, but spiking that far above 100 would be too extreme.

Well we’re 5 degrees ahead of yesterday at this hour and we topped out at 84 yesterday, so we could top out at your favorite number today.

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