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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021


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43 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ah, but there’s the rub. Our climo doesn’t seem to allow for many days in that 85-95 range with comfortable dews once you get past about mid-June. Maybe a few in the low end of that temperature range.

Yep. It is either 75 and comfortable or 85+ with 65-70 degree dewpoints…and really where are we going to get a dry hot airmass to come from…most of the time that we have 85+ das it is due to SE ridge pumping in an airmass directly from the gulf.

 

Also, I’ve been out west, and will take 95 and 40 degree dewpoints over 85 and 70 degree dewpoints any day of the week.

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Ah, but there’s the rub. Our climo doesn’t seem to allow for many days in that 85-95 range with comfortable dews once you get past about mid-June. Maybe a few in the low end of that temperature range.

I'll take low 60 dew points with those temperatures.  It's really not that bad, but as we climb near 70 for the dp, then there are problems.

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 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 299
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Kentucky
     Western New York
     Eastern Ohio
     Western Pennsylvania
     Southwest Virginia
     Much of West Virginia
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the
   afternoon across the watch area, with the potential for scattered
   severe storms.  Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, but
   hail and an isolated tornado are also possible.
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Tornado warning for Cranberry.

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
  North central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 251 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Cranberry, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Seven Fields around 255 PM EDT.
  Gibsonia and Mars around 300 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Callery, Valencia, Warrendale, Pine Township and Bradfordwoods.
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Looks like this one weakened below severe levels right before it hit us.  The wind wasn't even that bad locally.  Hopefully no tornado up north.  I had a good view of the line from the southeast and there might have been remnants of a wall cloud, but it became clearly disorganized before moving in.  Also didn't visibly see any real rotation.

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18 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Tomorrow and Thursday look very nice.  Today has been very chilly.  Had this been September this would be a great day.

Your 90s are coming. And quite possibly before we get out of June at that.

Well maybe. I think we could get there Sunday but it’s less likely after that.

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16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

2A44AD5A-1F65-4E0D-B177-BDFC978C80D5.thumb.jpeg.6462886e3ba71ef9de6d82b2363c4a7c.jpeg

It’s official, there was a tornado in Allegheny County on Monday. Thankfully looks like mostly a non-event.

Honestly this annoys the hell out of me they came out to survey this when the damage from last week’s storm was much worse and they ignored it.

 

They said they don’t usually survey microburst damage, which I find to be very unlikely. 

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6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Honestly this annoys the hell out of me they came out to survey this when the damage from last week’s storm was much worse and they ignored it.

 

They said they don’t usually survey microburst damage, which I find to be very unlikely. 

Not to be cynical, but do you think the fact that 6 trees got uprooted next to a playground where rich people’s children play had something to do with it?

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25 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Not to be cynical, but do you think the fact that 6 trees got uprooted next to a playground where rich people’s children play had something to do with it?

Doubtful. More like they had put out a warning and wanted to confirm their warning was correct.

Will say that If you look up their language on when they do surveys, they do say they survey microbursts to see if their might have been spin ups and help them better understand those events.

 

I know it’s dumb but I could almost guarantee there were greater than 70mph winds in the north hills last Sunday.

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6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Doubtful. More like they had put out a warning and wanted to confirm their warning was correct.

Will say that If you look up their language on when they do surveys, they do say they survey microbursts to see if their might have been spin ups and help them better understand those events.

 

I know it’s dumb but I could almost guarantee there were greater than 70mph winds in the north hills last Sunday.

RE: the first bolded point, I agree that the tornado warning and “possible tornado” probably had much more to do with the decision to survey than anything else. My comment was meant somewhat facetiously.

RE: the second bolded point, I absolutely concur. We didn’t get slammed in my immediate vicinity, but I live in the north hills and I’ve driven through parts of McCandless and Hampton several times in the past week and the tree damage seems to be a bit more than your typical low-end severe thunderstorm.

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4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

RE: the first bolded point, I agree that the tornado warning and “possible tornado” probably had much more to do with the decision to survey than anything else. My comment was meant somewhat facetiously.

RE: the second bolded point, I absolutely concur. We didn’t get slammed in my immediate vicinity, but I live in the north hills and I’ve driven through parts of McCandless and Hampton several times in the past week and the tree damage seems to be a bit more than your typical low-end severe thunderstorm.

I agree 100%. I live 1 mile next to a neighborhood that lost close to 100 trees in a 5 to six block area. 

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46 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I agree 100%. I live 1 mile next to a neighborhood that lost close to 100 trees in a 5 to six block area. 

What are your thoughts on why there was not a survey sent out? It seemed incredibly odd give the amount of damage especially in north park and near wildwood. 
 

You can’t convince me there weren’t 80-100mph winds in those storms.

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3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

We thought that about Monday, lol.  It's wait and see.

The heat signal for next week looked good with a lot of model agreement yesterday. Now there’s model agreement in the opposite direction (except for the Euro to some extent) with the ridge shifted way east. The weather app is always a good litmus test for this, and it doesn’t look good for what you want to see.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

What are your thoughts on why there was not a survey sent out? It seemed incredibly odd give the amount of damage especially in north park and near wildwood. 

Is it possible that it was clearly straight line winds?  I'm not really sure if there is a difference between how tornado damage and straight line damage look?  Possible they could just tell based on radar that there was no spinning?

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The heat signal for next week looked good with a lot of model agreement yesterday. Now there’s model agreement in the opposite direction (except for the Euro to some extent) with the ridge shifted way east. The weather app is always a good litmus test for this, and it doesn’t look good for what you want to see.

The GFS is funny for Sunday, near 90 here, but the funny part is the 113 in Portland, OR.

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16 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Is it possible that it was clearly straight line winds?  I'm not really sure if there is a difference between how tornado damage and straight line damage look?  Possible they could just tell based on radar that there was no spinning?

Possibly…but usually straight line winds over 70mph outs side of a massive derecho are pretty rare. We rarely get the type of damage we saw without there being a microburst.

Also I believe straight line winds often have a lot to do with storm forward momentum, and these ones were crawling. 

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35 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Possibly…but usually straight line winds over 70mph outs side of a massive derecho are pretty rare. We rarely get the type of damage we saw without there being a microburst.

Also I believe straight line winds often have a lot to do with storm forward momentum, and these ones were crawling. 

Interesting.  Hmmm...not sure then.  Was there a tornado warning on that storm?

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22 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Which is why GFS is a take it with a grain of salt model right now.

Well aren’t they all, all the time? But yes, a wide range of possibilities for the first half of next week depending on where the western Atlantic ridge sets up. And one of those possibilities includes a chance of reaching 90.

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