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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


CAPE
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21 hours ago, CAPE said:

Maybe :raining:

gfs_mslp_pwat_us_30.png

Today’s GFS and Euro stall the front farther west. GGEM brings it over us. probably some rain eventually, but if the front stalls to the west, could get a few HHH days with southerly flow around the Bermuda high.

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35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Today’s GFS and Euro stall the front farther west. GGEM brings it over us. probably some rain eventually, but if the front stalls to the west, could get a few HHH days with southerly flow around the Bermuda high.

Yeah that WAR looks pretty stout on guidance, and not in any hurry to move. Southerly/sw flow between the developing trough to the west and that ridge will make it sultry here again for the weekend and into next week.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that WAR looks pretty stout on guidance, and not in any hurry to move. Southerly/sw flow between the developing trough to the west and that ridge will make it sultry here again for the weekend and into next week.

Not liking the trends for East of 95 in my region. 7 day precip totals going down. Not surprised after two seperate busts last week,  especially Saturday's failure.  

Atlantic SSTs reinforce the idea of an expansive and growing WAR in time.  

p168i.gif?1624304433

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Today’s GFS and Euro stall the front farther west. GGEM brings it over us. probably some rain eventually, but if the front stalls to the west, could get a few HHH days with southerly flow around the Bermuda high.

And today’s 06z drops 3” IMBY with relatively normal to slightly below normal temps for the run.

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32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Similar to last week, a couple stellar days after today, and Friday should be nice too but transitioning to more humid. 

 

tomorrow night's softball game is going to be AH-MAZING 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is probably how it will go. WA ridge that sets up in that position this time of year usually flexes and doesn't break down too quick.

Drier trends from the WPC in the 6 to 7 day window.

Meanwhile expect a continued faster than normal rise in the surf zone temps next week . 

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1624390764

 

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Good synopsis of the upcoming period from Mount Holly-

A typical summer pattern develops for the long term as a Bermuda High becomes established offshore and a slow moving trough develops over the Great Lakes. This is a classic southwest flow regime which is likely to be in place for at least several days beginning the end of this week and heading into next week. The result will be a transition from the dry and cooler weather during the middle of this week to a sustained warm and humid pattern, especially by the time we get to the weekend. From Saturday onward, we will mostly be looking at highs in the mid 80s to near 90. This is nothing atypical for the season, but combined with the increasing humidity, we may flirt with Heat Advisory levels at times during the period. Rain chances in this pattern are quite uncertain at the moment. It will depend heavily on how fast a cold front to the west approaches as Great Lakes troughing slowly moves eastward and/or starts to lift out. Model guidance has a spread of several days on when this front will move through, or if it even will at all as opposed to just washing out. My general thinking is that rain chances will gradually increase from Saturday onward, especially to the west, but that overall there will be a lot of dry hours through the period.

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not if this verifies. I would take the under, but it has zero for my yard.

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_3.png

 

That set-up with higher heights further North and East looks like last summer's theme, if i remember correctly. May not be super hot, but the night's elevated lows will have it appear more nasty, and soupy.  

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

 

That set-up with higher heights further North and East looks like last summer's theme, if i remember correctly. May not be super hot, but the night's elevated lows will have it appear more nasty, and soupy.  

 

That post was a 5 day ens mean for the upper ridge. Look where the Euro op has the surface high by late next week. This would be nasty, and that trough/front to the west would have little impact this far east. Probably just wash out. The only storms would likely be terrain aided pulsers further inland for the most part. Hopefully the Canadians are more correct, and  the ridge breaks down/ moves further east. I wouldn't count on it though.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_10.png

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