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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Andrew, '92 devastated the southern burrows of Miami/Dade County tho.   Also, Charley and Frances on the west coast of the Penn. wrought havoc to Cat 4...so I don't know - I think getting down to Broward and Palm Beach discrete level is just getting more difficult for trying to hit a bullseye - their being missed in 5 decades may not be that usual at that scope and scale.  Florida as a "regional" scope is doing just fine.   2004 was a bad year there... And other years, like Wilma ...at least got them action. 

I'm not sure what the return rate of > Cat 3 hurricanes are down to discrete scales, tho.  Maybe Palm Beach is supposed to be denuded off the face of the planet regularly every 30 years and they are over do to be erased - lol

 

They are long over due in key west , FLL and WPB dating back to the 150 year records .

I was in S FL for Wilma , Jeanne, Frances, Katrina .

Those we’re not 4/5’s and their punch was tame from a structural point of view , that is the big difference between the 4/5’s and lesser storms which is why I bring up that distinction .

The biggest and scariest prep was from a buzz saw Floyd that was a 4-5 but turned NW just in time . That was a monster 

Wilma was most exciting as a high end 2 that a day earlier was suppose to hit FLL as maybe a 1. I recall the power during the gusts of that storm as about the upper end of what I wanted to experience as my area saw 110-115 mph gusts that seemed insane .
 

Charley was a Big Surprise and packed a big punch over a 8-10 mile radius about 25 miles in , minuscule cane but definitely much stronger than predicted 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How long can Miami to WPB avoid a cat 4-5 landfall...and Key west 
 

Broward And Palm beach are going on like 5 decades of luck . Miami as well . 
 

Yes we know Andrew hit 30 years ago  and cleared a 5 x 25 mile path in Homestead and the Everglades to their west.

Its just wild how many 4-5’s steam roll central and NW  Bahamas and dont effect Florida with more than cat 1 gusts

 

 

 

It makes sense to a degree, as such as extreme systems are likely to begin recurving at that latitude...that bit of extra longitude that FL as is often crucial.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It makes sense to a degree, as such as extreme systems are likely to begin recurving at that latitude.

To a degree it does , but I mean in 65 years or so WPB, Fort laudy, Key west and downtown Miami’s without a cat 4-5 making landfall  is stretching it for that . Regardless of Homestead 30 years ago getting hit by a bomb.

Without detailing temp talk much longer Key west is Probably the number one mass casualty site if such a storm was bearing down . They don’t leave 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

To a degree it does , but I mean in 65 years or so WPB, Fort laudy, Key west and downtown Miami’s without a cat 4-5 making landfall  is stretching it for that . Regardless of Homestead 30 years ago getting hit by a bomb.

It is stretching it, but like John said....the odds of any one point getting directly impacted by a cat 4-5 is inherently low, anyway. Some area are  more prone than others, and IMO, the Bahamas are much more at risk than FL....its no coincidence. Every bit of longitude at that latitude is crucial.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is is stretching it, but like John said....the odds of any one point getting directly impacted by a cat 4-5 is inherently low, anyway.

Of course , but John admitted he is not versed in the historic odds of a 4-5 not hitting a 100 mile area of coast for several decades And then you can add key west to that list .

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There are climo hot spots, like the Yucatan peninsula, and Bahamas, and then other areas that while at risk in a general sense, are not so climo favored.

FL to me a bit like the lower windard islands in that most severe storms in the area veer north and east of them.

Its like our local snow climo....we all get nailed in a general sense, but then you have the ORH hills, etc.

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While on the subject, the operation GFS is 200+ hours out with an impressive TS riding up the western Bahamas ...in case no one has noticed. 

I mean the model run at a hemispheric scope and scale still does it's usual job of finding a way to make it October by D10 like it does every run - for whatever reason.   But in so far as just that tropics, yeah..it's been lurking in the ensemble means. 

The thing is, the Euro cluster has never been very "prone" to triggering the tropics.  Not sure if that is inherently a better performing instrument there, but it's definitely tending to development at lower frequency in recent seasons. 

 

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It takes a pretty anomalous ridge in place for a high-end hurricane to continue barreling west at that latitude and not recurve, while maintaining that ferocity....theoretically speaking, its very possible....but it takes a unique setup. Just like the south shore with respect to snowfall maxima....while not usually climo favored to get nailed, will get walloped due to OES assist in a cold air mass with an onshore flow.

Yes, FL is vulnerable to extreme hurricanes in a general sense, theoretically speaking, but there are reasons why it is not really a climo hot spot for cat 4's and 5s.

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I remember this book I had when I was a kid.  "The American Weather Almanac" I think - for some reason I forgot the title. It was gray in color, front and back. And it was thick. It covered all the majors:  blizzards, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and lightning, their explanations and patterns - it was written in 'adult language' tho.

Anyway, recall reading about the Labor Day Hurricane that strafed along the Florida Keys in 1935.  Category 5 with 180 mph winds, with era construction ...must have been interesting. 

I remember one specific passage in that anecdotal accounts section of that event, reading about how as the eye came over, the water in the toilets started flowing back out, because the pressure was so low that it was being sucked out -

Now, I don't know if that was true, but the text was written "...Presumably because..." and it was anecdotal.  I have heard of things like that, tho, elsewhere.  

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The thing is, the Euro cluster has never been very "prone" to triggering the tropics.  Not sure if that is inherently a better performing instrument there, but it's definitely tending to development at lower frequency in recent seasons. 

 

Agree. From what I've seen the last few seasons, the Euro is probably still best at distinguishing the real signals for TC genesis from the amp happy bias we tend to see from the GFS and its ensembles, but the Euro (and ensembles) in the last 2-3 seasons has also had a complete whiff or two in a given season. IIRC, the Euro and ensembles totally missed forecasting the development of Dorian--like not a single member of the EPS showed a tropical storm developing even as the wave was organizing. 

I mean, I guess that's why you blend guidance and look at the environment independently. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Irma was a 4 when it hit the keys, granted maybe the impacts weren't as devastating as an intensifying 4 on it's way to maturing. 

Remember Irma took a bit of a beating when it scraped the north coast of Cuba. I'll always be a believer that if Irma didn't take that west jog it would have impacted the Keys or SW FL as a 5. It had completed an ERC and was an absolute buzzsaw just before scraping Cuba and quickly intensified right after. Man, that environment was primed for a monster. 

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Heh... It may back off on the deep layer re-organization it's doing at D6 up there, and there'd still be enough for BD genesis.

It wobbles the vortex around n-e of JB for days, and like clock work dependability, right around D6, it just up and punches the thing SE toward the Maritime.

I see it do that all the time, and it has to back off.

But, I think in this case the flow is breaking down then - it's just a matter of how much.

Heh, it's like 1/3 those mechanics could still deliver 28 kts of dead sailors spirit/strata shreds and 52 F air coming into NE zones by mid day, Wednesday anyway

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Looks like NCEP remains undeterred wrt to heat

"Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

255 PM EDT Thu Jun 03 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 06 2021 - 12Z Thu Jun 10 2021

...Record Heat Threat from the Northern Plains to the Northeast...."

"...Extreme temperature anomalies are likely from parts of the Great Basin/northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Highs and/or morning lows may reach up to 15-20+F above normal. Especially across parts of the Northeast next week, these values may exceed daily records for highs and warm lows."

 
 
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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. From what I've seen the last few seasons, the Euro is probably still best at distinguishing the real signals for TC genesis from the amp happy bias we tend to see from the GFS and its ensembles, but the Euro (and ensembles) in the last 2-3 seasons has also had a complete whiff or two in a given season. IIRC, the Euro and ensembles totally missed forecasting the development of Dorian--like not a single member of the EPS showed a tropical storm developing even as the wave was organizing. 

I mean, I guess that's why you blend guidance and look at the environment independently. 

Remember Irma took a bit of a beating when it scraped the north coast of Cuba. I'll always be a believer that if Irma didn't take that west jog it would have impacted the Keys or SW FL as a 5. It had completed an ERC and was an absolute buzzsaw just before scraping Cuba and quickly intensified right after. Man, that environment was primed for a monster. 

Right, but this also plays into why FL is not a climo hot spot for cat 4-5 LFs.

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Absolutely. Hurricanes like Michael and Charley are anomalies.

Yea, I was speaking more of the atlantic side, but intense GOM LFs are also relatively rare because they are always interacting with mid latitude systems....you need exceptional outflow to compensate (Michael) and/or a tightly wound, rapid blow up (Charley).

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