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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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I forgot to actually look at the RH values/altitudes, yesterday -ha.  I just assumed we'd be sunnier - oops.  Ok, so partly sunny. Either way, turned heat back off.  Windows open.

Euro ensemble mean, and operational, flagging near/at historic heat early next week.  Synoptically, the operational flat out supports Monday and or Tues at or above 97F,  HFD to LWM to PWM.

Still D6 so we wait, but it's a signal that's been " cooking" for days tho (ha).   Spanning four consecutive runs, the EPS, GEFs and GEPs had increased the ridge in both the X and Y coordinates - i.e., wider and taller, another way to say hotter.  The 0z continued that growth trend, now eclipsing 590 heights, centered roughly eastern OH to southern Jersey.

Sorry y'all. I'm kind of a nerd about temperature extremes.  When it comes to heat, love hate relationship.  Hate living through them, but they are fascinating to watch get engineered in the models.

- meantime, couple of beauts with some convection Thursday, getting increasingly humid. Saturday we transition.

Which I wonder if 18 to 00z Thursday afternoon and evening, we may end up in a warm baroctropic wedge with decent helicity, while a right entrance wind max at 500 mb starts slicing into NW zones around 21z.  That seems to be the gist of the layout from the higher res model types.  If we can get a blue tinted hillside sunshine say 1- 5 pm, that might get interesting.

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59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

70.0F mostly sunny...nice day.

Improvements in ceilings happening now.

Interesting cloud pattern observing the morning hi res loops ( vis ).  Had that standing wave effect look to it.   But, that seems to be peeling away and I can see blue slots west and this is confirmed on sat now.

probably ends up mostly sunny 2 to 6

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea the high drew stretch some guaranteed this week has been pushed to the weekend into early next week before coc takes over again. 

Well it’s been anything but coc with the cold and wet.  Once the heat breaks it should be 70s+ still which I can live with

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21 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Did Wiz go to a little league game today to commemorate 10 years?

The funniest part is forum members remember severe events based on what Wiz was doing at the time.  Selling hot dogs, score keeping, or inside working at the hockey rink during open skate? 

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8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Saw the first gypsy today! Thought for sure they’d all been killed last summer. Where there’s one there’s hopefully many more!

B23KIPM.jpg

This peculiar person belongs in North Dakota where he could unleash his caterpillar friends on the state tree-- the telephone pole.

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Excessive heat likely with 590+ dam ridge just off to our west. Both

deterministic and ensemble guidance offering low to mid 90s Mon and

Tue, as 925 mb temps soar to +24C to +25C! Merrimack Valley could be

the hottest location with downsloping WNW winds. Heat may briefly

break (especially eastern MA) late Tue or Wed with potential

backdoor front.

 

Blistered napes.

 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

We install Friday before the high dews, the heat is on, its on the street....

My plan is to install this week too.  I need to find new side panels for one of my units.  No luck at the local Aubuchon's  Guess I'll go online.

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GFS model is relentless in its intent to undermine the spatial attributes of the next week's ridge, which concomitantly means it shortens the length of time of the anomaly, too.  End result, middling warm up. 

This doesn't compare very well with the EPS, GEPs, nor the operational version of these ens familys, nor its own GEFs mean.  Three run -cycles in a row, it has been definitively less amplified in both spatial and temporal aspects, comparing to these other guidance sources/methods, wrt to the entire over-arcing thematic pattern.  It is likely to be less correct.

I - personally - believe this is owing to that particular model's horrible and coherently bright and embarrassing bias to cumulatively lower heights on the polar side of any jet; usually gets noticeable around D4 at individual mid level vortex featrues, but grows out side of those to engulf the areal expanses between. Such that the entire region of the Ferrel cell - thanks Brian lol - can and usually does average some 6 to as much as 12 dam lower than all the other global numerical models and blends therein, sometimes as near in time as the far side of the mid range, day's 5-7.  This does not lend to early detection of specifically, heat.

It's good that the flagship America guidance rides the short-bus when it comes to detecting precisely and specifically N. Hemispheric summer seasonal heat - a crucial threat that is the most dire in a warm CC crisis  -  Good work!   Was this on purpose?  Was this deniers infiltrating the modeling offices - kidding

Anyway, I may be over-stating it a little, but what it is doing since 12z run ( yesterday ) fits with that problem just too elaborately well to believe it.

The operational Euro has it's quirks with other conserved curvature and amplitude out there too - but in this case, it fits so well with its EPS mean, and other cross-guidance techniques, it's like handling matter better. 

This looks like a planetary event.  Basically, it's probably keyed into GWO/AAM passage and will thus swell and decay along that frequency - which probably takes 7 to 10 days to pass longitude.  I also agree that before the end of that period, the tendency to establish/return a NW flow into Maritimes may levy a tax against New England with BDs stealing some time away as a possibility.  Most likely after next Tuesday

 

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