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June 2021 temperature forecast contest


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Predict the temperature anomalies for the usual nine locations ... check back closer to the deadline for any updates as I try to find out if the NWS plans to change to 1991-2020 normals for June. For now, will assume entries are relative to 1981-2010. Will score them as such unless otherwise tagged, if I can establish the differentials. Also due to the timing of Memorial Day weekend, probably will not start charging late penalties until June 2nd, if you don't see a table of forecasts you can edit on June 1st without penalty. 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

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Update: I am reading press releases stating that the 1991-2020 normals will be in use perhaps even this month (May) so I assume they will be used for the June CF6 products that are used to score the forecasts. Hold off on posting until I can get a list of 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 normal values for the nine locations, to see if some stations have significant differences. 

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Here are May and June normals for both intervals, the May data will be used to determine what reporting is in place for the May contest and the scoring will be based on an adjustment to 1981-2010 if necessary since all contest entrants agreed that they were providing forecasts relative to 1981-2010. I have added all the monthly normals for both intervals.

Period ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1981-2010 _May ___66.0 _62.3 _57.9 __ 59.1 _ 70.1 _ 76.9 ___ 57.1 _ 82.1 _ 56.0

1991-2020 _May ___67.2 _63.2 _58.4 __ 60.6 _ 71.2 _ 77.4 ___ 57.4 _ 82.0 _ 57.5

1981-2010 _Jun ___ 75.2 _71.8 _67.7 __ 68.9 _ 77.3 _ 82.4 ___ 67.4 _ 90.8 _ 60.9

1991-2020 _Jun ___ 76.3_ 72.0 _68.0 __ 70.6 _ 77.9 _ 83.0 ___ 68.2 _ 91.4 _ 62.0

 

All months for reference:

(DCA 1981-2010 _ 36.0 39.0 46.8 56.8 66.0 75.2 79.8 78.1 71.0 59.5 49.6 39.7)

(DCA 1991-2020 _ 37.5 40.0 47.6 58.2 67.2 76.3 81.0 79.4 72.4 60.8 49.9 41.7)

(DCA diff _________ 1.5 _ 1.0 _0.8 _1.4 _1.2 _1.1 _1.2 _ 1.3 _ 1.4 _1.3 _ 0.3 _ 2.0)

================================================

(NYC 1981-2010 _ 33.1 35.7 42.4 52.6 62.3 71.8 77.1 75.9 68.9 57.6 47.9 37.9)

(NYC 1991-2020 _ 33.7 35.9 42.8 53.7 63.2 72.0 77.5 76.1 69.2 57.9 48.0 39.1)

(NYC diff _________ 0.6 _ 0.2 _ 0.4 _1.1 _0.9 _0.2 _0.4 _ 0.2 _ 0.3 _0.3 _0.1 _1.2)

================================================

(BOS 1981-2010 _ 29.0 31.7 38.3 48.1 57.9 67.7 73.4 72.1 64.9 54.0 44.7 34.7)

(BOS 1991-2020 _ 29.9 31.8 38.3 48.6 58.4 68.0 74.1 72.7 65.6 54.8 44.7 35.7)

(BOS diff __________0.9 _ 0.1 _0.0 _0.5 _0.5 _ 0.3 _ 0.7 _0.6 _ 0.7 _0.8 _0.0 _ 1.0)

=================================================

(ORD 1981-2010 _23.8 27.7 37.9 48.9 59.1 68.9 74.0 72.4 64.6 52.5 40.3 27.7)

(ORD 1991-2020 _25.2 28.8 39.0 49.7 60.6 70.6 75.4 73.8 66.3 54.0 41.3 30.5)

(ORD diff _________ 1.4 _1.1 _1.1 _0.8 _1.5 _1.7 _1.4 _1.4 _1.7 _1.5 _ 1.0 _ 2.8)

=================================================

(ATL 1981-2010 _ 43.3 47.2 54.3 62.0 70.1 77.3 80.2 79.4 73.5 63.3 54.0 45.3)

(ATL 1991-2020 _ 44.8 48.5 55.6 63.2 71.2 77.9 80.9 80.2 74.9 64.7 54.2 47.3)

(ATL diff _________ 1.5 _1.3 _1.3 _ 1.2 _ 1.1 _0.6 _ 0.7 _ 0.8 _ 1.4 _1.4 _0.2 _2.0)

=================================================

(IAH 1981-2010 _ 53.1 56.4 62.7 69.5 76.9 82.4 84.4 84.6 79.8 71.5 62.3 54.4)

(IAH 1991-2020 _ 53.8 57.7 63.8 70.0 77.4 83.0 85.1 85.2 80.5 71.8 62.0 55.4)

(IAH diff _________ 0.7 _ 1.3 _1.1 _ 0.5 _0.5 _ 0.6 _0.7 _ 0.6 _0.7 _0.3 _--0.3 _1.0)

=================================================

(DEN 1981-2010 _30.7 32.5 40.4 47.4 57.1 67.4 74.2 72.5 63.4 50.9 38.3 30.0)

(DEN 1991-2020 _31.7 32.7 41.6 47.8 57.4 68.2 75.1 72.9 64.8 51.1 39.4 31.2)

(DEN diff _________ 1.0 _0.2 _ 1.2 _0.4 _0.3 _0.8 _ 1.3 _ 0.4 _1.4 _0.2 _1.1 _ 1.2)

==================================================

(PHX 1981-2010 _56.4 59.7 65.2 72.7 82.1 90.8 94.8 93.6 88.4 76.7 64.1 55.4)

(PHX 1991-2020 _56.8 59.9 66.3 73.2 82.0 91.4 95.5 94.4 89.2 77.4 65.1 55.8)

(PHX diff _________0.4 _ 0.2 _1.1 _ 0.5 _--0.1 _0.6 _0.7 _0.8 _0.8 _0.7 _1.0 _ 0.4)

==================================================

(SEA 1981-2010) _ 42.0 43.4 46.5 50.3 56.0 60.9 65.7 66.1 61.3 52.8 45.4 40.6)

(SEA 1991-2020 _ 42.8 44.0 47.1 51.3 57.5 62.0 67.1 67.4 62.6 53.8 46.5 42.0)

(SEA diff __________0.8 _ 0.6 _0.6 _1.0 _ 1.5 _1.1 _1.4 _1.3 _1.3 _ 1.0 _ 1.1 _ 1.4)

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By the looks of the SEA current reporting, they have already switched to 1991-2020, the anomaly for 56.3 is reported as -0.8 which says that the "normal" for 1-26 is 57.1, comparing that to 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 it would appear that the report is relative to 1991-2020. 

Will discuss this with you all by private message and see what you think should happen for May, but for June we will take the reports using 1991-2020 so it's up to you to assess the new normals at the nine locations, hope you find the above tables useful in that regard. Some locations have warmed more than others (not only climate change at work but also urbanization issues). 

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Table of forecasts __ June 2021

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ bias vs con

 

RJay ____________________ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ____ +0.63

wxallannj _______________ +2.9 _ +3.4 _ +3.5 __ +2.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.3 ___ +1.8 _ +0.7 _ --0.4 ____ +0.24

DonSutherland1 ________ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +3.0 __ +1.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.5 _____ 0.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.6  ____ +0.32

Tom ____________________ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.5 ___ +1.1 _ +0.6 _ +0.5 ____ +0.23

BKViking ________________ +1.9 _ +2.5 _ +2.7 __ +2.0 _ +0.5 _ --0.3 ___ +1.0 _ +1.3 _ +1.7 ____ +0.33

hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 __ +0.9 _ +0.1 _ --0.8 ___ +0.4 _ +0.5 _ +1.0  ____ --0.33

___ Consensus __________ +1.7 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 __ +1.6 _ +0.5 _ --0.3 ___ +0.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 

wxdude64 ______________ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ +1.1 _ +0.6 _ --0.4 ___ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +0.6 ____ --0.10

so_whats_happening ____+1.1 _ +1.9 _ +2.3 __ +2.4 _ +0.4 __ 0.0 ___ +0.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.4 ____ +0.10

Roger Smith ____________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 ___ +2.7 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 ____ +0.39

RodneyS ________________+1.0 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 __ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ --0.9 ___ +0.3 _ +0.9 _ +1.5 ____ --0.49

Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____ --0.26

___ Normal _______________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ --1.14

__________________________________________________

Warmest and coolest forecasts color coded ... Normal is also minimum forecast for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, PHX. 

(note edit on June 25 due to error in placement of one line in the table, no changes to any numbers were needed)

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After twelve days ... 

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (12d anom) __ +3.5 _ +4.2 _ +8.0 __ +8.8 _ +1.2 _ +0.5 ___ +4.5 _ +2.0 _ --0.7

___ (22d anom) __ +1.0 _ +2.2 _ +6.6 __ +4.8 _ +0.4 _ +1.1 ___ +5.7 _ +5.0 _ +0.9

 

___ (p 20d anom)_ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +5.0 __ +5.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +4.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

13 _(p30d anom) _+2.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 __ +4.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

23 _(p30d anom) _ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +5.0 __ +4.0 __0.0 _ +1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +5.0 _ +2.5

30_1 (final anoms) +0.3 _ +2.3 _ +6.3 __ +3.7 _ --0.3 _ +0.5 ___ +3.4 _ +3.9 _ +4.1

____________________________________________

(13th) _ A very warm start to June in the northern tier, but recently more moderate in New England ... next week or so appear fairly similar but not quite as warm, then the last ten days appear to maintain most trends, so I just continued the projections with some moderation for the larger ones. 

(25th) _ Changed SEA from +2.0 to +2.5 due to extreme heat expected 26th-30th (currently +1.2 to 24th). Makes no difference to contest scoring results as highest forecast is +1.7. Also changing IAH to +1.0 from 0.0, has not been falling off as expected past five days. About +1.2 after 25th. Rather wet looking last few days of June should drop that slightly.

(30th to July 1st) _ Posting final anomalies and adjusting the provisional scoring. Underlined are final, otherwise estimated from 29th CF6 and 30th climate reports. 

NOTE _ Snowfall contest final results will be available soon in the MAY thread. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Final scoring for June 2021

Scores are based on the latest projections in the previous post, anomaly tracker. When the highest raw score is below 60, we go to a system of progressive scoring with a max of 60. With eleven forecasts, that gives levels of 0, 6, 12, 18 ... 54, 60. No "minimum progression" score is used where the raw score would be higher. Minimum progression scores are marked ^.... same score either way *

Minimum progression was needed for most of the BOS scores, and the top two SEA scores, otherwise SEA scoring was higher or equal for raw scores below the 48 level. DEN and PHX made late exits from minimum progression. That has not been shown in the scoring table yet, waiting for the actual numbers to save a step. 

___________________________

FORECASTER ________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west _ TOTAL

 

Roger Smith __________ 84 _ 80 _ 17 __ 181 __ 66 _ 70 _ 98 __ 234 _ 415 __ 88 _ 58 _ 48*__ 194 ___ 609 

BKViking _____________ 68 _ 96 _ 42^__ 206 __ 66 _ 84 _ 82 __ 232 _ 438 __ 54 _ 48 _ 60^__ 162 ___ 602

so_whats_happening __84 _ 92 _ 36^__ 212 __ 74 _ 86 _ 88 __248 460 __ 48 _ 42 _ 46 __ 136 ___ 596

DonSutherland1 ______ 62 _ 94 _ 48^__ 204 __ 56 _ 88 _ 78 __ 222 _ 426 __ 34 _ 72 _ 54^__ 160 ___ 586 

 

___ Consensus ________72 _ 92 _ 30^__ 194 __ 58 _ 84 _ 82 __ 224 _ 418 __ 50 _ 42 _ 38 __ 130 ___ 548

 

RJay _________________ 46 _ 86 _ 60^__ 192 __ 66 _ 64 _ 88 __ 218 _ 410 __ 74 _ 42 _ 18 __ 134 ___ 544

wxallannj _____________ 48 _ 78 _ 60^__ 186 __ 74 _ 96 _ 62 __ 232 _ 418 __ 70 _ 36 _ 10 __ 116 ___ 534 

wxdude64 ____________ 78 _ 86 _ 21 __ 185 __ 48 _ 82 _ 80 __ 210 _ 395 __ 50 _ 46 _ 30 __ 126 ___ 521 

RodneyS ______________86 _ 82 _ 23 __ 191 __ 36 _ 94 _ 70 __ 200 _ 391 __ 40 _ 40 _ 48*__ 128 ___ 519 

hudsonvalley21 _______72 _ 94 _ 30^__ 196 __ 44 _ 92 _ 72 __ 208 404 __ 42 _ 32 _ 38 __ 112 ___ 516

Tom __________________ 64 _ 92 _ 27 __ 183 __ 58 _ 52 98 __ 208 _ 391 __ 56 _ 34 _ 28 __ 118 ___ 509 

Scotty Lightning _______86 _ 74 _ 05 __ 165 __ 36 _ 64 _ 82 __ 182 _ 347 __ 44 _ 42 _ 28 __ 114 ___ 461 

___ Normal ____________94 _ 54 _ 00 __ 148 __ 26 _ 94 _ 88 __ 208 _ 356 __ 34 _ 22 _ 18 __ 074 ___ 430 

__________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecast report 

_____________________________________

 

DCA _ Finished at -0.3, a shared win for RodneyS and Scotty Lightning (each +1.0), also Normal. 

NYC _ Finished at +2.3, near consensus, no extreme forecasts.

BOS _ Finished warmer (+6.3) than warmest forecasts (+3.5) (win for RJay, wxallannj).

ORD _ Finished warmer (+3.7) than warmest forecasts (+2.4) (win for so_whats_happening, wxallannj)

ATL _ A win for wxallannj (-0.5) as outcome is -0.3.

IAH _ Finished +0.6, as second and  third warmest forecasts (Roger Smith +0.7, Tom +0.5) tied for high score, this qualifies as

... ... ... an extreme forecast with Scotty Lightning (+1.5) taking a loss. 

DEN _ Finished +3.3, higher than warmest forecast (+2.7) (win for Roger Smith)

PHX _ Finished +3.9 higher than warmest forecast (+2.5) (win for DonSutherland1)

SEA _ Finished +4.1 higher than warmest forecast (+1.7) (win for BKViking)

 

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<<<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-June) - - - - ============ >>>>>>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. June provisional scores are used and adjustments will be made here to reflect changes there. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. One forecaster passed Normal but not any other forecaster, so their change is shown as zero, Normal is shown down 1. Tom was ahead of consensus in May but his "down 1" refers only to the forecasters, Consensus is up one relative to the forecasters.  

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 428 _474 _336 _ 1238 __397 _446 _390 _1233__2471 __248 _452 _384 _ 1084___ 3555

BKViking (up 2) _______________416 _494 _374 _ 1284 __308 _420 _346 _ 1074__2358 __280 _402 _422 _ 1104___ 3462

wxdude64 (down 1) ___________453 _481 _378 _ 1312 __289 _360 _343 __ 992 __2304 __333 _429 _365 _ 1127___ 3431

 

___ Consensus (up 1) _________ 448 _492 _358 _ 1298 __296 _396 _362 _ 1054 __2352 __266 _406 _384 _ 1056___3408

 

Tom (down 1) _________________436 _505 _396 _ 1337 __258 _341 _394 __ 995 __2332 __314 _405 _332 _ 1051___ 3383

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 426 _454 _382 _ 1262 __287 _440 _336 _ 1063 __2325 __212 _380 _406 __ 998___ 3323

wxallannj ______________________366 _450 _342 _ 1158 __264 _366 _400 _ 1030 __2188 __350 _386 _396 _ 1132___ 3320

RodneyS ______________________ 392 _446 _301 _ 1139 __271 _412 _336 _ 1019 __2158 __300 _416 _402 _ 1118___ 3276

 

so_whats_happening (up 1) ____453 _447 _286 _ 1186 __348 _450 _285 _ 1083 __2269 __218 _413 _357 __ 988___ 3257

Scotty Lightning (down 1) ______416 _432 _279 _ 1127 __192 _390 _374 __ 956 __2083 __298 _412 _372 _ 1082___ 3165

RJay __________________________ 372 _426 _394 _ 1192 __326 _350 _316 __ 992 __2184 __224 _332 _302 __ 858___ 3042

___ Normal (down 1) ___________ 400 _378 _244 _ 1022 __154 _ 384 _388 __926 __1948 __348 _372 _350 _ 1070___ 3018

Roger Smith ___________________ 356 _322 _155 __ 833 __309 _314 _398 _ 1021 __ 1854 __264 _370 _380 _ 1014___ 2868

 

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 0 __  

RodneyS _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb 

so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

___ Normal ___________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ May 

Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1  __Jun 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 38 locations out of 54 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May and 8 in June.

Of those, 22 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 16 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been six shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 46 total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun ___ TOTAL to date

wxallannj ______________ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 8-0

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 8-1

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 8-1

RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 6-0

so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 4-0

wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0

RodneyS ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 3-1

Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ 3-0

BKViking ______________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0

Tom __________________ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0

Scotty Lightning ______ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ ----- __ 1-1 __ 1-1

__________________________________________

 

 

 

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