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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


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9 minutes ago, H2O said:

Kind of a waste of a storm but impressive how it developed this close to the coast

Yeah. It’s a good reminder though of how quickly things can pop close to home. This is one of the more impressive ones I’ve seen in recent years. 

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It’s also still a bit early, but 92L might be something to watch for remnant impacts next week. Both the GEFS and especially the EPS maintain some sort of low (post tropical once at our latitude) tracking near or over the region. 

10689058.gif?0.6900019676274098

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s also still a bit early, but 92L might be something to watch for remnant impacts next week. Both the GEFS and especially the EPS maintain some sort of low (post tropical once at our latitude) tracking near or over the region. 

 

Some of those tracks (if the low is still decently discernable) could be good for a tropical remnant TOR threat as well. Would be fun to see both the severe and tropical threads be hot at the same time. 

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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC 
has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina 
has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast 
over the center and more prominent banding features.  The low also 
has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that 
boundary lying northwest of the center.  Considering the small core 
of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the 
low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) 
-- it is now classified as a tropical depression.  The initial 
intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming 
strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface 
observations.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt.  A large 
mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should 
cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but 
faster, over the next couple of days.  In about 48 hours, the system 
is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a 
larger extratropical low.  Model guidance is in very good agreement 
on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track 
consensus.

The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in
low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the 
Gulf Stream and decays.  Almost all of the intensity guidance shows 
the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the
healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that
guidance.  The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36
hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in 
about 2 days.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 35.0N  73.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 36.6N  70.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 39.8N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 43.6N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Some of those tracks (if the low is still decently discernable) could be good for a tropical remnant TOR threat as well. Would be fun to see both the severe and tropical threads be hot at the same time. 

12z Euro :lol: 

Out to lunch (probably) but great eye candy. 

:lol: (but watch the ensembles)

hDGDb9H.png


:lol: :lol:

v1aAecV.png
 

:lmao:

ksvn3Dq.png

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

EPS has been in lockstep. I’m a little more intrigued today.

 

Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. 

Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win. 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. 

Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win. 

We need to get a time machine and teleport back to this moment 49 years ago and live those following ten days out. 

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8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. 

Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win. 

Fair enough. Euro is the furthest left. GEFS keeps things away for the most part. 

I’m not ready to bite, but it’s something to watch. 

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44 minutes ago, George BM said:

We need to get a time machine and teleport back to this moment 49 years ago and live those following ten days out. 

It kind of makes you wonder how a 2021 DC/Baltimore area would handle that. 

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We’re still six days out, but the idea of a decent post tropical low up in the region is gaining traction with me. 

92760029.gif?0.32698380255073356
 

EPS remains bullish (note it almost certainly wouldn’t be tropical at this latitude, but the ensembles are picking up on a relatively “strong” low possible)

h7tkqKJ.png

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