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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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We are not the bullseye on the models but its a razor's edge....especially for N MD.  There is likely to be additional qpf maxes locally.  Look at what the models were printing out for Henri.  Western CT --> NYC bullseye...in reality, NYC --> C NJ.  With the center passing through our area I would not write off significant impacts just yet.

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Mount Holly AFD discussing the range of possibilities based on latest guidance and model discrepancies. If you don't want to read it all, the short version is.. GFS lol.

The main story of the midweek period continues to be the potential for widespread heavy rain and associated hydro impacts primarily Wednesday into early Thursday in association with the remnants of Ida. Guidance remains fairly consistent with this threat, and many of the ingredients for a significant precipitation event appear to be in place including: 1.) Deep tropical moisture (PWATs potentially peaking near or even above 2.25 inches) being advected into the area in association with Ida`s remnants. 2.) Considerable UL synoptic lift in the right-entrance region of an UL jet streak positioned over the St.Lawrence River , and mid- lvl heights fall and DCVA ahead of both the northern trough and Ida`s circulation. 3.) Likely modest baroclinic forcing and low-lvl convergence associated with Ida`s circulation and developing fronts as it transitions extratropical. Although there are some discrepancies among guidance regarding the timing (the GFS per usual is faster) and track of the remnant low (the GFS is a northern outlier at the moment), there exists fairly good consensus for a widespread 2-4 inches with the potential for locally higher amounts. The only small positive will be that the system will be progressive with most of the totals likely coming in the period between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning (as mentioned still some minor timing discrepancies). As mentioned in the previous discussion there is a conditional tornado/severe threat if the remnants of Ida track far enough northwest which would result in the unstable warm sector encompassing more of our CWA. Fortunately, the consensus outside of the GFS would confine this threat to Delmarva and far southern NJ, but if a GFS-like track over the heart of the CWA were to verify the threat could reach up into the I-95 corridor.

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30 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We’re shifting to the winter map early I see. :lol:

Never too early to start breaking weenie spirits!

8 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

I don't know what has more staying power: the cam near Grand Isle or Ida itself. 

One thing is, Ida seems to have quite a bit more video documentation than Laura. Laura was largely at night, though ...

 

Yeah, it was all at night. Eyewall was post midnight and the power promptly went out lol.

  • Haha 1
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16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

100 bucks says the dumpster on wheels in the Cantore shot was placed there

Make that a 1000.

Watching his shots the wind is barely even making that thing wobble. And what would strong wind do to a dumpster on wheels in the middle of a street anyway? Yes, it would make it roll, not flip.

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