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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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28 minutes ago, H2O said:

lots of SAL to flush out in the next couple weeks before i see anything popping

Wouldn’t mind fairly quiet tropics for my OCMD trip at the end of July and then FL trip in early August. Then it can go nuts.

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35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Wouldn’t mind fairly quiet tropics for my OCMD trip at the end of July and then FL trip in early August. Then it can go nuts.

Dont fret the OC trip.  No Gloria for you. FL tho?    Eeeeehhhhhhhhh, thats gonna be sketchy.  Its their year.  Gulf coast and NC/SC had it the last couple.  Time to make an example of the worst state in the south(tough call tho)

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3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Dont fret the OC trip.  No Gloria for you. FL tho?    Eeeeehhhhhhhhh, thats gonna be sketchy.  Its their year.  Gulf coast and NC/SC had it the last couple.  Time to make an example of the worst state in the south(tough call tho)

We’re going to Orlando, not the beach at least. Still would like to avoid tropical action.

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't like this leading up to the Winter, we would need a nice, organic -NAO. 

off01_temp.gif

off01_prcp.gif

Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons. B) 

IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers. ;)

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14 minutes ago, George BM said:

Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons. B) 

IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers. ;)

Agree. You can see it on some of the seasonal guidance with a maritime Canada ridge. Classic landfall pattern for the US, specifically the east coast.

Remains to be seen if that happens though. Steering pattern predictions are especially unskilled at this range.

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3 hours ago, George BM said:

Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons. B) 

IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers. ;)

Yeah, a lot of my analogs showed a trough/weakness in the GOM and SE for hurricane season. 

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CgDkuNk.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next 
few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is 
forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and 
then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and 
near Hispaniola around the middle of this week.  Interests in those 
areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. 
Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally  
conducive for development, this system could still become a 
tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the 
west-southwest or west at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

 

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