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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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Doesn’t matter much but that image actually underplays what would be a fairly significant coastal event verbatim on the GFS. At any rate all subject to change as the guidance gets recon data. Definitely something to watch at this latitude.

6u0lY90.png
 

PdDOKcQ.png

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Couple quick points:

1. Looking at the radar loop and IR, it seems pretty clear that Elsa’s convective burst overnight did a lot to help develop an inner core. Critically, it’s not complete, which means any organizational progress we’re seeing now is fragile, so we need to see what happens today. That said, what we see so far IMO increases the odds of survival in the eastern Caribbean.

SHC5qqs.png

2. The guidance, despite having a large spread, hasn’t really shifted a lot. Of course, there are wobbles here and there but the general evolution hasn’t fundamentally changed. Folks in Florida and the SE coast shouldn’t be waiting for the guidance to have consensus to start preparing.

3. Recon has taken off and is en route. A lot of flights are planned and both low level recon and the high altitude environmental sampling will be huge for intensity and track forecasting. I wouldn’t get caught up in the guidance really until it has had time to initialize on actual observational data. 

The presentation overall this morning is significantly better than it was 12 hours ago. The only thing slowing this down right now, is the practically supersonic speed lol.

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Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone 
is now a hurricane.  A special advisory will be issued within the 
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. 

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane 
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. 

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane 
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 
74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.  

SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky
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6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m not liking the GFS, that looks like an Isaias repeat IMBY. That should change after recon hopefully.

Probably will change, but the possibility is legit IMO. Stronger systems have had further west tracks on the ensembles and so far at least...this is verifying stronger. 

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