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Heavy Rains and Flooding May/June 2021


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Tropical fire house into eastern/central  TX then and north 

Flash Flood watches up for the next 3 days in places including DFW

Most of the drought is west of this area and some places have already been wet this spring 

Soil Moisture neutral/slightly above average but well above NE Texas

image.png.69805ab5b8f9f0784ed3d7e6740f3d9c.png

 

7 day precip

image.png.6332e66afc258717114308bdeee656e8.png

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0181  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1216 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTH TEXAS  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 161615Z - 162115Z  
  
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH-FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO  
EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  
  
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH  
CENTRAL OK WITH AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTH  
FROM SOUTH TX AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH RECENT MAX ONE HOUR  
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM KFWS OF 1.5 TO LOCALLY 2" OVER THE I-35  
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DALLAS METRO. PWS OF 1.6" TO 1.7" WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY 25KT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW WITH SBCAPE  
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 1HR FFG IS LOWER THROUGH THE DALLAS  
METRO/ALONG I-35E (BETWEEN 2.0" AND 2.5"/HR) WHERE THE GREATER  
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. FARTHER NORTH IN EAST-CENTRAL OK ARE PWS  
AROUND 1.5" AND 1HR FFG IS GENERALLY JUST ABOVE 2.5"/HR. HOWEVER,  
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME LONGER  
RESIDENCE TIME FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, MAKING FOR A SIMILAR  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OK TO NORTH TX THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
  
JACKSON  

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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXC113-161915-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0018.210516T1714Z-210516T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dallas TX-
1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
  for...
  Western Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 1214 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
  Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience
  minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to 2 inches of rain has
  already fallen in parts of western Dallas county.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Dallas, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie, Carrollton, Richardson,
  Desoto, Cedar Hill, Duncanville, Lancaster, Farmers Branch,
  University Park, Addison, Glenn Heights, Highland Park, Cockrell
  Hill, Ovilla, Cedar Hill State Park and Buckingham.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 9704 3297 9691 3297 9663 3254 9683
      3254 9704

$$

TR.92
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Not off to the best start in the multi day event

 

..Upper Trinity river basin getting hit hard..

Lake lewisville basin also got a good soaking (1-2 inches)

 

 

  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 122 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING   
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS   
  ALREADY FALLEN NEAR I-30 AND LOOP 12. SOME ROADS ARE ALREADY   
  EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN. 

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img.png

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

Areas affected...East-Central Oklahoma through North Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161615Z - 162115Z

Summary...Potential for flash-flooding this afternoon along a
moisture/instability axis extending from North Texas into
east-central Oklahoma.

Discussion...A mid-level impulse is lifting northeast through
central OK with an axis of moisture/instability extending north
from south TX ahead of this wave. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed in this axis over North Texas with recent max one hour
rainfall estimates from KFWS of 1.5 to locally 2" over the I-35
corridor including the Dallas metro. PWs of 1.6" to 1.7" will
continue to be reinforced by 25kt southerly 850mb flow with SBCAPE
of 500 to 1000 J/Kg. 1hr FFG is lower through the Dallas
metro/along I-35E (between 2.0" and 2.5"/hr) where the greater
moisture is present. Farther north in east-central OK are PWs
around 1.5" and 1hr FFG is generally just above 2.5"/hr. However,
the mid-level circulation should continue to allow some longer
residence time for moderate to heavy rain, making for a similar
isolated flash flood in parts of central OK to North TX this
afternoon.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36149685 35659572 32829579 31379606 30989647
            31009701 31079741 31539761 32049748 32489727
            33239725 33739720 34329769 34509844 35479778
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img.png

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021
 
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun May 16 2021 - 12Z Mon May 17 2021 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

1600 UTC update

Only some minor changes made to the previous Excessive Rainfall 
Outlook.  The slight risk over northeast Kansas was extended 
farther to the southwest to cover lower ffg values from overnight 
heavy rains.  The slight risk over south central Oklahoma was 
extended into southeast Oklahoma after viewing new 1200 UTC hi res 
guidance.  The marginal and slight risk areas over South Texas 
were also extended slightly farther south for current radar 
trends.  See WPC's mesoscale precipitation discussions #0179 valid 
until 1740 UTC and #0180 valid until 1914 UTC for addition 
information across northeast Kansas and South Texas.


Oravec

0900 UTC discussion 

...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing convection across portions of Kansas is forecast to 
continue to shift east during the morning hours, with weakening 
expected as it moves into western Missouri during the late morning 
and early afternoon hours.  Redevelopment is expected however by 
late afternoon and continuing into the evening with the return of 
daytime heating and persistent southerly flow into a slow-moving 
boundary extending across Kansas and northern Missouri.  Recent 
runs of the RAP and NAM show PWs approaching 1.5 inches by the 
afternoon along the leading edge of southwesterly low level inflow 
into the boundary across northern Missouri.  This along with 
slow-moving, mid-level energy is expected to support the 
development of heavy rains.  Slow-cell movement along with the 
potential for training will raise the potential for heavy 
accumulations and the threat for localized runoff concerns.  The 
00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities (40km) for accumulations of 
2-inches or more are well-above 50 percent within the Slight Risk 
area, with some high probabilities for 3-inches or more across 
portions of central Missouri.

...Southern Oklahoma to Central Texas...
Waning convection moving east of the Texas Panhandle this morning 
is expected to redevelop farther east as a weak mid-level 
shortwave interacts with an plume of deeper moisture (PWs 1.5-2 
inches) spreading north along an axis of 20-40 kt winds.  With the 
return of daytime heating, heavy rains are expected to return, 
with the 00Z HREF indicating high neighborhood probabilities for 
accumulations of 2-inches or more during the afternoon hours.  
This convection is expected to propagate east of the Slight Risk 
area by the evening hours; however, some models show upstream 
convection developing over the High Plains propagating southeast 
back into the region overnight.

...Middle and Upper Texas Coast...
Mid-level energy interacting with persistent onshore flow and PWs 
of 1.75-2+ inches is expected to support the development of 
slow-moving heavy rains during the day.  While confidence in the 
details is limited, the hi-res guidance shows a good signal for 
locally heavy amounts along the Middle Texas coast developing 
later this morning, with the HREF showing high probabilities for 
local accumulations of 3-inches or more.  Convection is expected 
to progress more steadily to the east during the day, however some 
models show heavy accumulations making it farther east along the 
Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston metro, during the 
afternoon.

...Central Rockies into the High Plains...
Convection is expected to develop once again along the Colorado 
and New Mexico high terrain during the late afternoon/evening 
hours.  Locally heavy amounts developing may result in short-term 
runoff problems over the eastern Colorado high terrain, especially 
across burn scar areas, before propagating east into the High 
Plains. 

Pereira 
 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
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I remember there being some concern that the Western drought would expand throughout the Plains this spring. Thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case.

Upper Midwest has seen significant improvement of late, but we here in southern WI are still running a pretty substantial rainfall deficit for the year, and southern Lower MI is even worse.

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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXC085-162245-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0019.210516T1945Z-210516T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Collin TX-
245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
  for...
  Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
  Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience
  minor flooding in the advisory area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Plano, Garland, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Allen,
Wylie, Sachse, Murphy, Fairview, Princeton, Lucas, Parker, Lowry
Crossing, St. Paul and New Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 9684 3315 9684 3325 9665 3318 9645
      3297 9655 3299 9684 3300 9684 3301 9684
      3302 9684 3303 9684

$$

TR.92
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new 7 day ...10 inch pixel again

in the short term a small MCS is SE of Dallas and south of the heavy rain yesterday 

DFW getting moderate rains maybe 1/3 to /12 inch this morning but will likely have to wait under tonight for next round of heavy rain based on trends

 

Day 11 image not available

 

image.thumb.png.691a6ecfd4f283e0ce6ac82c5a326996.png

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Well, from a flooding standpoint, the good news is that CAMs models are rather unimpressive looking over the next 48 hours for DFW.

It's messy, but the organized convection manages to do a hop, skip and jump over the region between the poor timing and the outflow boundaries, which is the nature of how things work with mesoscale complexes. 

The CAMs aren't perfect though. We'll see how right they are. 

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More heavy rain over eastern Texas and LA

Rivers and  bayous high

tropical disturbance over Gulf should move into TX with high PW values on its NE flank moving into the area

pattern has has been looked in all spring

soil very wet

any summer tropical systems could mean major flooding'

updated Soil Moisture

Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)\

 

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

nothing extreme the past 10 days or so ..but above normal precip continued in  east TX up into KS/MO

soil moisture wet

no death ridges

more flash flood watches up today

Lakes in DFW  area running high and some in flood and parts of the areas closed

any slow tropical systems this summer moving around the SE ridge into the area could be trouble

 

 

 

 

image.png.95562c05bf324f3714036a7f98989f6a.png

 

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Slow moving MCS with a WAA arm soaking  NW DFW metro

 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 454 PM CDT, TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED BETWEEN 2 AND 4   
  INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR NEAR WEATHERFORD.   
  THESE RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THAT IS   
  EITHER ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. 

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After the wettest May on record for some areas, parts of Texas and Louisiana prepare for more

Between May 16-22, a weather reporting station south of Lake Charles, Louisiana, tallied over 21 inches of precipitation, while Baton Rouge saw a staggering 15 inches during the same period. Victoria, Texas, received 20.28 inches of rain during the month of May, eclipsing the previous record of 14.66 inches in 1993. With even more rain in the forecast for these hard-hit areas, the same locations will once again face the threat of flooding.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/06/03/weather/texas-flooding-louisiana-weekend-rainfall/index.html

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas...

* Until 100 AM CDT.

* At 1052 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated continued thunderstorm
  development across southwest Collin County producing additional
  heavy rainfall. Multiple reports of urban flooding have been
  received from McKinney to Plano.  Between 3 and 5 inches of rain
  have already fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
  are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
           poor drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Plano, McKinney, Frisco, Allen, and Fairview.
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