Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like we will have to keep watering through at least the weekend. The record rains have been along the western side of the ridge. This is our 2nd dry spring in row. If we go for long stretches without and precipitation or only very light amounts the fire danger will continue to increase as well. It has already been a fairly active brush and forest fire season. Although higher humidity and DP's could curtail that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Spring precip here stands at 7.86" so far... Lowest past 40 years is 6.47" in 1995. Normal is 12.65". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 84/55 temp split today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 84/55 split at my station also! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 84 today wall to wall sunshine. gorgeous day. Was looking back at records and saw 30s on this date in 1983 . Dont recall that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. Parts of the region could reach 90° for the first time this year. The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.589. That was lowest figure since March 31 when the PNA was -1.775. That was also the lowest figure in May since May 31, 2018 when the PNA was -1.767. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until at least May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -1.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.607 today. On May 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.655 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.212 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.3° (1.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 84 today wall to wall sunshine. gorgeous day. Was looking back at records and saw 30s on this date in 1983 . Dont recall that period. Yup had a low of 36° here on the 18th of 83. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 it was 88 on this date 5/18 in 1977... record low is 41 set in 1973...it was 42 in 1976 and 1882...43 in 2002 and 1983... 5/19 records... 99 in 1962... 89 in 1964... 89 in 1996... 38 in 1976... 41 in 2002... 42 in 1882... 43 in 2009... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Feeling like a summer night, minus humidity, holding that warmth..steady temp at 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: the hot and dry is what my allergies nonexistent this year, it's the humid weather that makes it really bad remember, no allergies in the desert the desert actually has the cleanest lowest levels of air pollution much lower asthma rates too i figured water vapor and rainy weather would help wash some of this shit out of the air and off literally every single surface. there's so much of it this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: i figured water vapor and rainy weather would help wash some of this shit out of the air and off literally every single surface. there's so much of it this year. yeah it's horrible when it gets really bad but with water vapor and rain I think it makes the plants go crazy. At some point we're going to have to come up with some way to block pollination. The stuff that does this isn't really necessary anyway we should figure out a way to block at least 50% of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 LB, you have some really interesting takes on what mankind should seek to exert its control over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: LB, you have some really interesting takes on what mankind should seek to exert its control over. no no, he's got a point. listen, if we can waste money on weather.gov's abhorrent new radar pages, we can figure out a way to end global pollination. my itchy eyes and runny nose depend on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 5 hours ago, doncat said: Yup had a low of 36° here on the 18th of 83. interesting year, had our latest snowfall on record in late april and then record heat for most of the summer and in September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: no no, he's got a point. listen, if we can waste money on weather.gov's abhorrent new radar pages, we can figure out a way to end global pollination. my itchy eyes and runny nose depend on this. yeah besides I'm not talking a complete end to pollination just a reduction by about 50 pct which would bring us back to pre climate change levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: LB, you have some really interesting takes on what mankind should seek to exert its control over. I'm not talking a complete end to pollination just a reduction by about 50 pct which would bring us back to pre climate change levels....when we could all breathe easier lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(60/78), or about +3.5. Month to date is 60.5[-1.0]. Should be about 63.1[+0.4] by the 27th. The 26th consistently showing on all models as a Lone Wolf type 90-Degree Day. Still not much rain to talk about. 64*(60%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 71* by 9am! 79* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2021 Author Share Posted May 19, 2021 Highs close to 90° today with the extremely dry forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. A few locations could reach or exceed 90°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 90° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Parts of the region will likely reach or exceed 90° today. Data for 90° days for select cities is below: Allentown: 2020: 24 days 1991-2020 average: 18.2 days Least: 1 day, 1960 Most: 41 days, 1966 Bridgeport: 2020: 11 days 1991-2020 average: 9.1 days Least: 0 days, 1950, 1962, and 2004 Most: 18 days, 2010 and 2016 Islip: 2020: 8 days 1991-2020 average: 8.3 days Least: 0 days, 1967, 1979, 2004, and 2014 Most: 18 days, 1999 New York City-JFK: 2020: 12 days 1991-2020 average: 10.8 days Least: 0 days, 1967 Most: 32 days, 2010 New York City-LGA: 2020: 34 days 1991-2020 average: 21.8 days Least: 4 days, 1972 and 1978 Most: 48 days, 2010 New York City-NYC: 2020: 20 days 1991-2020 average: 17.4 days Least: 1 day, 1902 Most: 39 days, 1991 and 1993 Newark: 2020: 31 days 1991-2020 average: 28.3 days Least: 7 days, 1967 Most: 54 days, 2010 Philadelphia: 2020: 36 days 1991-2020 average: 29.7 days Least: 5 days, 1889 Most: 55 days, 2010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Up to 75 already and likely touch 90 here in CNJ along with other warmer spots and it wouldnt surprise me if LGA or even NYC come close factoring in with the recent dryness. Onshore flow penetrates Thu and Fri before we start warming it back up some time Saturday although clouds may keep temps capped on Sat. Next shot at 90s Sunday (5/23) and between Tue (5/25) and Thu (5/27) next week with next surge of 850 temps >15C, peaking Wed (5/26) at 18c. Beyond there heights look to rebuild for the holiday weekend. Overall warm for the period. We'll see how long it takes to turn wetter and do we see a complete reversal. I dont get the sense of a 2002/2010 type dry hot progression and still feel we are more 2016 type warm and humid / wet summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Such a disparity in forecasts for Friday/Saturday. From mid 80s to mid 60s depending on the outlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 gonna get to 90 F on a north wind lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Such a disparity in forecasts for Friday/Saturday. From mid 80s to mid 60s depending on the outlet. You can probably split the difference in most places. Winds look to be onshore so 60s on the coast and 70s inland. Too much troughing offshore to have the heat here for too long. Next week that might change and we finally have a sustained westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: gonna get to 90 F on a north wind lol Not terribly unusual. N winds here can be downslope which causes heating on its own. For the coast the warmest days are WNW wind days in the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 these last few days have felt like a heat wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 Temp is already up to 80F here on the coast, high yesterday was 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 first instar lanternflies are out and there are a lot of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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