psv88 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 I am so sick of this cold wind, this is miserable. We need to get into the 70s soon or people going to start to lose it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 what a cool refreshing very dry morning in nyc i love this weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 1 hour ago, psv88 said: I am so sick of this cold wind, this is miserable. We need to get into the 70s soon or people going to start to lose it. We'll get there by Thursday and stay there. Awesome weather coming up with cool, dry mornings and mild to warm days. No need to rush the heat on May 11. They'll be plenty of 80s and 90s in the months ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 2 hours ago, psv88 said: I am so sick of this cold wind, this is miserable. We need to get into the 70s soon or people going to start to lose it. Don posted correlations from our current pattern to previous hot summers. This might be one that turns on a dime and soon we have consistent 90s. Hopefully not the case. But yeah-usually at this time of year I’m not consistently wearing a sweater and hoodie still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 2 hours ago, psv88 said: I am so sick of this cold wind, this is miserable. We need to get into the 70s soon or people going to start to lose it. It does warm up rather quickly during the day. I have huge windows in my house so solar power goes on strong here as soon as the sun comes up. I turn on my space heater at sunset and keep it going until morning at 80, so it's warm at night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Don posted correlations from our current pattern to previous hot summers. This might be one that turns on a dime and soon we have consistent 90s. Hopefully not the case. But yeah-usually at this time of year I’m not consistently wearing a sweater and hoodie still. we love extreme heat, that is the only real exciting summer weather we can have. I'm thinking of a 1977 analog, as both 1988 and 2015 were hot but not extreme. I don't consider high "average" monthly temps to be extreme heat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: We'll get there by Thursday and stay there. Awesome weather coming up with cool, dry mornings and mild to warm days. No need to rush the heat on May 11. They'll be plenty of 80s and 90s in the months ahead. 80s meh....go big or go home, in an 11 yr summer, if we dont hit 100 at the coast at least once I'll be highly disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 4 hours ago, gravitylover said: 75-85 is fine. Those 90's don't have to get here. As long as it hits 102 or higher in July I dont care what happens right now, I have my space heater on at night set at 80 and sunshine during the day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 11, 2021 Author Share Posted May 11, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: As long as it hits 102 or higher in July I dont care what happens right now, I have my space heater on at night set at 80 and sunshine during the day lol. The winter maximum temperatures have been more impressive than the summer maximums since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017-2018 80 0 2 1998-1999 76 0 - 1948-1949 76 0 3 2016-2017 74 0 - 2001-2002 74 0 - 1996-1997 74 0 - 1953-1954 74 0 - 1949-1950 74 0 4 1984-1985 73 0 5 2006-2007 72 0 - 1982-1983 72 0 - 1946-1947 72 0 6 2015-2016 71 0 - 2013-2014 71 0 - 2010-2011 71 0 7 2019-2020 70 0 - 1997-1998 70 0 - 1978-1979 70 0 - 1938-1939 70 0 - 1931-1932 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1949 105 0 3 2012 104 0 - 1995 104 0 - 1936 104 0 4 2010 103 0 - 1999 103 0 - 1954 103 0 - 1948 103 0 5 2005 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1991 102 0 - 1977 102 0 - 1953 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1944 102 0 - 1943 102 0 6 2013 101 0 - 2006 101 0 - 1997 101 0 - 1988 101 0 - 1980 101 0 - 1957 101 0 - 1955 101 0 - 1933 101 0 7 2002 100 0 - 1986 100 0 - 1982 100 0 - 1973 100 0 - 1963 100 0 - 1959 100 0 - 1937 100 0 - 1934 100 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: The winter maximum temperatures have been more impressive than the summer maximums since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017-2018 80 0 2 1998-1999 76 0 - 1948-1949 76 0 3 2016-2017 74 0 - 2001-2002 74 0 - 1996-1997 74 0 - 1953-1954 74 0 - 1949-1950 74 0 4 1984-1985 73 0 5 2006-2007 72 0 - 1982-1983 72 0 - 1946-1947 72 0 6 2015-2016 71 0 - 2013-2014 71 0 - 2010-2011 71 0 7 2019-2020 70 0 - 1997-1998 70 0 - 1978-1979 70 0 - 1938-1939 70 0 - 1931-1932 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1949 105 0 3 2012 104 0 - 1995 104 0 - 1936 104 0 4 2010 103 0 - 1999 103 0 - 1954 103 0 - 1948 103 0 5 2005 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1991 102 0 - 1977 102 0 - 1953 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1944 102 0 - 1943 102 0 6 2013 101 0 - 2006 101 0 - 1997 101 0 - 1988 101 0 - 1980 101 0 - 1957 101 0 - 1955 101 0 - 1933 101 0 7 2002 100 0 - 1986 100 0 - 1982 100 0 - 1973 100 0 - 1963 100 0 - 1959 100 0 - 1937 100 0 - 1934 100 0 i'm guessing it's the humidity and the hadley cell being pushed too far north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 5 hours ago, psv88 said: I am so sick of this cold wind, this is miserable. We need to get into the 70s soon or people going to start to lose it. ..when is the SE ridge kicking in??.. Lee Goldberg says last 2 weeks of may..along the lines what Don S.is saying..can't get here soon enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 ..when is the SE ridge kicking in??.. Lee Goldberg says last 2 weeks of may..along the lines what Don S.is saying..can't get here soon enough.Better come soon.I hate Long island.As soon as true warm weather arrives we are already losing daylight Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 1 hour ago, tek1972 said: Better come soon. I hate Long island. As soon as true warm weather arrives we are already losing daylight Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk If some remember last June was a back and forth month too. I remember hot and sweating to sitting on the beach fully clothed with a coat on and we couldn’t stay there, because it was too cold. I think last June was the first time I ever had to use my heat. Using heat varies for different people. I consider when the temp in my house don’t drop below 68 the warmer weather finally arrived. I keep it at 68 day time and 66 for sleeping. Right now the heat currently runs every morning as it drops to 66 at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 some blustery spritzes of rain moving through CNJ, i guess this is some kind of frontal passage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 After a brisk start, tomorrow will be fair and pleasant. Afterward, a gradual warming trend will likely commence. An impressive cold shot is likely in the Plains States tomorrow and Thursday. Afterward, the core of the cold air mass will move into the Southeast and then out to the Atlantic Ocean. The northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England areas will only be grazed by this cold air mass. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The current PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +8.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.441 today. On May 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.296 (RMM). The May 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.582 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 I'm fine with the cool weather but the lack of any thunderstorm activity is annoying given that May into early June is generally our best shot at severe weather around here. I'd gladly take a transient hot day if it came with an interesting severe outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: The winter maximum temperatures have been more impressive than the summer maximums since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017-2018 80 0 2 1998-1999 76 0 - 1948-1949 76 0 3 2016-2017 74 0 - 2001-2002 74 0 - 1996-1997 74 0 - 1953-1954 74 0 - 1949-1950 74 0 4 1984-1985 73 0 5 2006-2007 72 0 - 1982-1983 72 0 - 1946-1947 72 0 6 2015-2016 71 0 - 2013-2014 71 0 - 2010-2011 71 0 7 2019-2020 70 0 - 1997-1998 70 0 - 1978-1979 70 0 - 1938-1939 70 0 - 1931-1932 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1949 105 0 3 2012 104 0 - 1995 104 0 - 1936 104 0 4 2010 103 0 - 1999 103 0 - 1954 103 0 - 1948 103 0 5 2005 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1991 102 0 - 1977 102 0 - 1953 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1944 102 0 - 1943 102 0 6 2013 101 0 - 2006 101 0 - 1997 101 0 - 1988 101 0 - 1980 101 0 - 1957 101 0 - 1955 101 0 - 1933 101 0 7 2002 100 0 - 1986 100 0 - 1982 100 0 - 1973 100 0 - 1963 100 0 - 1959 100 0 - 1937 100 0 - 1934 100 0 It's interesting that neither 1988 nor 2015 (two analogs) is on this list, 1977 however is.....the summer monthly avg are being pushed up by the mins not the maxes. It would be interesting if you calculated max avg separately from min avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 9 hours ago, tim said: ..when is the SE ridge kicking in??.. Lee Goldberg says last 2 weeks of may..along the lines what Don S.is saying..can't get here soon enough. Luckily, Memorial Day is the latest it can ever be, the last day of May lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 16 hours ago, LibertyBell said: As long as it hits 102 or higher in July I dont care what happens right now, I have my space heater on at night set at 80 and sunshine during the day lol. That's not necessary at all. I don't understand the desire for crazy high temps, you go out for a few minutes then need to go back into a climate controlled place. Personally I don't really like AC and find it quite wasteful so maybe that tempers my feeling towards high temps. I also think it's just so comfortable when it's in the mid 80's that I can't figure out why you'd want to be uncomfortable just to see those high numbers recorded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(53/73), or about +1.0. 80's back again for the 19th.{18th. to 22nd.,look AN} on the GFS. EURO is dry for the next 10 days. GFS, CMC have an inch or more, starting Saturday. 47*(48%RH) here at 6am., m. clear. 57* by Noon. 59* by 1pm. 65* by 3pm. Reached 70*(26%RH) at 5:15pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2021 Author Share Posted May 12, 2021 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's interesting that neither 1988 nor 2015 (two analogs) is on this list, 1977 however is.....the summer monthly avg are being pushed up by the mins not the maxes. It would be interesting if you calculated max avg separately from min avg. The summer maximums are rising nearly as fast as the minimums. The minimums are increasing only about a tenth of a degree per decade faster. Since 1981, the highs are increasing at +0.6°per decade vs +0.7° for the lows. Last summer was the 2nd warmest with numerous top 10s since 2015. We have also had numerous top 10 summers for 90° days away from the sea breeze. So the rising high temperatures have been driven by more 90° days while the 100°s have been fairly steady since 1981. 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 126 3.5°F 202006 - 202008 74.4°F 125 2.7°F 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 124 2.5°F 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 121 2.0°F 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 1.5°F 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 1.4°F 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 1.3°F Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 8 1955 29 0 - 1944 29 0 9 2012 28 0 - 1949 28 0 10 1959 27 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Morning thoughts... After a cool start, today will be partly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 68° A warming trend will commence tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(53/73), or about +1.0. 80's back again for the 19th.{18th. to 22nd.,look AN} on the GFS. EURO is dry for the next 10 days. GFS, CMC have an inch or more, starting Saturday. 47*(48%RH) here at 6am., m. clear. 80s where ? I see 60s and 70s for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like a gradual temperature rebound back to the 70s coming. The warm spots could even see a few 80° days next week. But the first 90s of the season will have to wait a while longer. The blocking is correcting stronger for next week. So the nearby backdoor/warm front front will limit how warm we get. New run….stronger blocking and 50/50 low…backdoor nearby limiting first 90° potential Old run model weakened blocking too soon Blocking doesn't want to give up. Has been ongoing since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Moving the dial up from the 60s to the 70s starting today for some and Thu for most through next Tuesday. We'll have to see the position of the ridge and any onshore influence next week 5/18 - 5/21 but think some of the warmer spots will get to 80s as guidance brings in 850 temps 12C - 16C. Beyond there the last week from the 25th on of May could turn warmer and feature the seasons first heat but plenty of time to track that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 80s where ? I see 60s and 70s for the NYC area. GFS Clown Model Outputting continues. The other models are also lost on a Coney Island Dark Ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2021 Author Share Posted May 12, 2021 It’s interesting how blocking has less of a cooling influence as we move into the summer. In fact, our hottest summers since 2010 have had strong blocking patterns. The last 11 year summer composite has featured some of the strongest summer blocking on record. The period also featured our hottest summers on record. 9 out of 11 years recorded above average summer temperatures. Only 2014 and 2017 came in near or below average on the temperatures. But those summers had strong blocking like the warmer ones. The one difference is on the Pacific side. The warmer than average summers had the North Pacific ridge axis to the north of Hawaii. During the cooler 2014 and 2017 summers, this ridge was located over Western North America. So we need blocking to combine with a stronger ridge near the PACNW for more comfortable temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like a gradual temperature rebound back to the 70s coming. The warm spots could even see a few 80° days next week. But the first 90s of the season will have to wait a while longer. The blocking is correcting stronger for next week. So the nearby backdoor/warm front front will limit how warm we get. New run….stronger blocking and 50/50 low…backdoor nearby limiting first 90° potential Old run model weakened blocking too soon Oh what a shocker there. Can’t ever bet against the Maritimes trough the past few springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s interesting how blocking has less of a cooling influence as we move into the summer. In fact, our hottest summers since 2010 have had strong blocking patterns. The last 11 year summer composite has featured some of the strongest summer blocking on record. The period also featured our hottest summers on record. 9 out of 11 years recorded above average summer temperatures. Only 2014 and 2017 came in near or below average on the temperatures. But those summers had strong blocking like the warmer ones. The one difference is on the Pacific side. The warmer than average summers had the North Pacific ridge axis to the north of Hawaii. During the cooler 2014 and 2017 summers, this ridge was located over Western North America. So we need blocking to combine with a stronger ridge near the PACNW for more comfortable temperatures. so far this spring the pac looks more like the hot summer composite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 beautiful cool weather cold enough to wear gloves on in the morning lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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