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weatherwiz

May 2021 Discussion

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The one thing that I can say is that with
more clouds and chances for showers, today should feature less
favorable weather conditions for outdoor activities then compared to
what we saw on Saturday, even if showers should not result in a
washout in any area.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Thought we were getting mid summer last week?

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Hope the whole summer stays this way

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9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Thought we were getting mid summer last week?

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Mid summer for central Canada.....

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33 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Thought we were getting mid summer last week?

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Summah is ova.  The leaves are already starting to turn.  It’s back is broken

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29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beautiful day on tap. Bright bow and pushing 60 already . Heading for 70’s CT

Salvage what you can of this miserable week.

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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Salvage what you can of this miserable week.

One day it will reach 80. One day. 

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22 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Salvage what you can of this miserable week.

Won’t be miserable at all . Couple days will feature some sunny periods and 70+. Most likely Monday or Tuesday .Especially inland . Couple of showers on 1-2 days , but not much rain . Coastal is way offshore on EPS, GGEM etc. So late week cooler 60’s but likely mainly dry 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Won’t be miserable at all . Couple days will feature some sunny periods and 70+. Most likely Monday or Tuesday .Especially inland . Couple of showers on 1-2 days , but not much rain . Coastal is way offshore on EPS, GGEM etc. So late week cooler 60’s but likely mainly dry 

I truly hope you're right as I am scheduling 36 holes of golf on the cape for the weekend.

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14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah this sounds decent despite Kooky Kenny posts 70+ where most folks LIVE thru Thursday 

Confidence higher in the temperatures across southern New England on
Monday with the EPS and other guidance sources interquartile range
around 5-7 degrees. Should see temperatures topping out in the low
60s across NE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands to the mid 70s in the CT
River Valley. Lots more spread on Tuesday/Wednesday with the
interquartile range getting to 10-20 degrees between the 25th and
75h percentile. Do have a bit more confidence on Tuesday across CT
of temps in the low to mid 70s. Leaned on the NBM guidance due to
the uncertainty at this point in time. Readings on Wednesday also
fairly spread given uncertainty with the frontal passage. Readings
range from the low 60s to low 70s. This is all despite the mild 925
hPa air in the 9 to 15+ degree Celsius range as low level easterly
flow will keep those temperatures down.

Did add a mention of thunderstorms later on Tuesday into early
Wednesday as there is a surge of warmer air advecting in and the
front appears to jog a bit further northward. Models showing a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across western MA into CT, which is possible
given models showing some sky clearing in the low to mid levels

I'm interested in the national blend stuff vs say ...the NAM, for later tomorrow into Tuesday.  

The former of the two seems more optimistic - granted - but, the NAM fits with the general violation in the butt climate of new england for any time between April 1 and October 15 when it comes to warm air.

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41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm interested in the national blend stuff vs say ...the NAM, for later tomorrow into Tuesday.  

The former of the two seems more optimistic - granted - but, the NAM fits with the general violation in the butt climate of new england for any time between April 1 and October 15 when it comes to warm air.

Didn’t it fail badly on the “door” last week?Instead of screen doors slamming shut , people kept them pinned open to let warmth in 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow May not be bad,  it Tuesday could be meh. 
 

Heavy heavy nose running today. We pollen.

Epic pollen this year with the warm early spring. Inches deep 

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow May not be bad,  it Tuesday could be meh. 
 

Heavy heavy nose running today. We pollen.

It’s an ironic circumstance of life that we wait months for good weather to get outdoors and then have to suffer the effects of pollen and be cautious of mosquito and tick borne illnesses.

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Didn’t it fail badly on the “door” last week?Instead of screen doors slamming shut , people kept them pinned open to let warmth in 

yeah ...I dunno..  maybe it did - but .. I don't think anything the NAM did last week is as significant as the NAM did, ever in its existence. Which frankly is brilliant once out of 10 pieces of shit type of legacy.

In other words, it could be right, wrong, up down, left right ... or totally lucky last week - so whatever it did then, means nothing to determinism now. LOL.  It sucks in any dimension of consideration. 

Having said that, it still presently just looks more fitting for least excuse imagine to be cold in SNE climo that has been a persistent situation since the year ( ~) 2000...  Hence the nerdly interesting test -

Brief digression: I was thinking about this.. If we look at the climate inferences from 1750 to 2000 ... that is a very different picture than what we have been experiencing since 2000.  

I expect it to snow this month because it has 57% of May since 2000.  If not snowed...deep layer tropospheric air masses supporting snow - either way.  20 years is not a very large sample set - in fact it's rather small ( duh ) when looking at say .. 500 years of this or that metrics.   But, the difference is insidiously concealing the Climate Change shit...  If this were not a CC air apparent era, it would be more easy to assume the 20 year tendency to f Mays right in the butt is just god being a douche. But, since the CC instructs ( via modeling and whatever ...) that odd extremes should be happening ... that seems to argue there may be some substance to the 20 year data that is easily overlooked by the standard concept of sample size/weighting..

But back on point...  The NAM looking cooler while a warm front is hem-hawing in the guidance ( EURO...GGEM ...all of them for that matter..), never has ended well at this time of year as of late and I don't see going with the warmest blended method as necessarily right - regardless of whether the blend density is centered on 72-75 F or whatever that is in the IQ range.  Just because they are using the blend and intuitively those numerical methods should squeeze out accuracy ...doesn't mean any of the feed-in data sources understand the drag coefficient that fights warm fronts - unique to this region ... Nor the non-linear wave tendency to fold/tuck at synoptic scales over SE Canada as an implied ( think invisible) vector that is always pointed SW ... All these weird "gestalts" ... to keep it cooler.. yeah, they take a back seat to the NBM ? 

They may... we'll see.  I'm not averring anything - just saying it'll be interesting to see if 66 at Fitchburg takes place tomorrow, under a clouded ceiling N of a warm front in early May with east wind blowing off a 42 F Labrador heat sink.

 

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Is it ever not f'n windy anymore??? I feel like it's been windy everyday for the past 2 years!!! So annoying trying to do anything outside. 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

70.1 currently . We tan

Mad dogs and Englishmen....

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Tuesday looks like crap but I kind of agree that the week probably won’t be terrible 

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The gfs has trended even colder with the low and now supports a severe nor’easter with heavy snow in eastern mass. They should just retire the gfs, it’s a garbage model that is almost always wrong. I’m not buying that it will even snow one flake even in the mountains and northern New England, never mind where I live.

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I want one run to bring this 982 low inside BM so I can hear inland elevations moan about snow . Gfs is so close 

Tossed. Zero suppprt 

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