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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So you raining out the whole weekend? Friday thru Monday? 4 days . With 40’s for highs. You’re going with that?

Maybe Saturday aftn into Sunday has some breaks of sun? Overall blah. Monday maybe more ern areas, but probably sucks in much of SNE with clouds at least.

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The unofficial start of summer looks like early spring. 
 

Current guidance is pretty much the worst weather you can get for this part of the world around Memorial Day weekend. Impressive.

Glass half full— it can’t get worse? 

I think there will be a window of nice (but cool) weather somewhere late Saturday into a chunk of Sunday but the guidance has also done a great job of spreading out the misery so far. Looks like two distinct systems—SNE gets the worst of round one (Friday/early Sat) and eastern New England especially into Maine gets the worst of round 2 (late Sunday into Monday). The high confidence forecast remains: unsettled and below normal Friday to Monday.

 

 

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Mm... it depends.  I think there's a soupcon of oversell on the dreary side LOL.....

I get it - best to be defensive and have one's heart broken now ...so that when the fated she/he shows up at the airport to stop you from getting on the flight to oblivion, the music swells and all's well  ...

But, the 00z GFS operational run was over with Saturday by noon and fair skies and light enough wind that under solar max sun and 552 thickness ( +6 at 850 mb) on Sunday/Monday that's still pleasantly mild.

The 18z was opposite, granted.   But what does that tell you ??  It tells you the continuity is off line.  This could go either direction still... Seeing as the period is also beyond 4 days, the Euro is not infallible either.

In fact, it's previous 12z run was more similar to the the 00z GFS... yet, it's 00z run, tries to inflict all this lower tropospheric impact off a mere sag in the height contours left in the wake of phase it shouldn't have tried to do in the first place...  It's like the models never really did give up thinking it is winter still. 

If these guidance can demo a modicum of continuity, while agreeing ... I'd be more personally sold on drear-out weekend loss.

For now, I think the Friday pm into early Saturday has the overrunning aspect to it and we may be wet..But I think the NAM is too far N with that ... ( cat paws and whitens the 1200 els up there) ...  Then, I'm inclined to think that the subtle cutesy phasing the models are trying to handle is unlikely to actually succeed, and then the skies tend more fair like the 12z Euro/0z GFS ...sort of blend or at least in concept, suppressing the 2nd spin up.  

Tell ya though, if this analysis turns out wrong and we douse the weekend - meh... Keep the lawns green.

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