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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Don't get your walking shorts in a bundle. If you don't like getting called out for stupid forecasts don't make them.

Absolutely Agreed.

As soon as somebody starts bumping and starts challenging the BS agenda, and the BS forecasts, he pulls the fradycat card and starts the sissy stuff...just like clockwork.  
 

It’s all a foolish game he plays...then when others play back, he starts with the creepy stuff.

Good Post Ken.  

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely Agreed.

As soon as somebody starts bumping and starts challenging the BS agenda, and the BS forecasts, he pulls the fradycat card and starts the sissy stuff...just like clockwork.  
 

It’s all a foolish game he plays...then when others play back, he starts with the creepy stuff.

Good Post Ken.  

He threatened to call the cops on me like a month or two ago. Lol.
 

I wouldn’t sweat it. trolls gunna troll.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m all for ball busting. Lord knows I do enough of it . But if you look at say his last 100 posts.. how many would you guess are directed at me ? I know.. and Dendy knows .  We lock up tight tonight . We all just brush Ginx stuff aside.. we know his deal 

What's my deal, please go into detail 

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Saturday... A very warm/hot day is on tap for much of the region on Saturday. Southwest surface flow coupled with 925T near +22C along with at least partial sunshine should yield afternoon highs near 90 northwest of I-95

Perfect for the graduations. Nothing says fun like sitting in a hot field listening to folks drone on for hours.

 

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Sprinkle here about 7:30.  0.69" for May, 0.18" over the past 2 weeks.  Past 7 days averaged 75/39 with each max from 73 to 77.  The nicest mid-May stretch I can recall.  First cloudy morning for a while and failed to drop below 50 last night.  If we get a lot of sun, could be first 80s here given the high launchpad.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks to come through here with 0.10-0.30" during early afternoon.... like perfectly timed to mess up the day.  I'll trade you full Stein for any water to interrupt the day outside.

Yeah I suppose we could see some sct stuff, but definitely not widespread. Summer-like weekend.

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What about Saturday  -

American models ... I think they typically erode around the periphery of ridges - I've ad nauseam explained how the GFS does this systemically to the extent of it becoming an unusable model beyond ~ D3s in general... But, it could be lending to it's having more Saturday QPF in the region ...circa 21z ...?   ( So implicitly, I don't trust it - )

This pattern's version of the 'bigger heat day' will in place that day.  Then late-ish afternoon the GFS swaths a broken QPF band.  I don't even get the feel that is convection on its charts at TT. It is almost as if the model is painting broken strata-form rain passing over the top of near 90 heat ...and through a synoptic ridge bulge that makes that next to impossible as rain type/origin...

 

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Sneaky big heat signal next week ...?

 

Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

227 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021

Valid 12Z Mon May 24 2021 - 12Z Fri May 28 2021

...Record heat likely for portions of the Southeast/southern

Mid-Atlantic next week...

 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

The other aspect that I think has a chance to grow as a risk awareness/need is that the transition between that mid week roll-back heat and the flat wave seasonal front there after, that appears to be favorable general severe layout.   It's obviously way ...way early for convection deterministic anything. This is purely just recognizing generality.  But a 90/70 type air mass with a polar jet running by to the N is precarious.. 

This weekend throughout next week has been a goodly agreed upon progression of synoptics by the Euro and GGEM cluster ...  Easy forecast - relatively speaking... - through D8 or so.  We break the present warm anomaly briefly Monday ... but by 18z that day, both models and their ens means have been stalwart indicating the the polar high pressure just up and all but completely loses identity by that hour; in fact, what's left of it regroups S with west wind taking over possibly still during those long sloped sun hours of a late May day ...  Could see a late high T at Logan?  Those are neat ...you think the high is 69, then the next day out of nowhere you're looking at the data and they snuck a 75 in there whaaa ... 

Tuesday has 570 dm thickness in an unabated continental warm conveyor moving up over the arc of this flat ridge at early as 12z ... GGEM is a bit stingy but has the general idea...  The Euro's +18 C at 850 mb over a laminar SW flow to the surface and even 50% sun will likely see that be the adiabatic temperature ... I wouldn't be surprised if this whole thing starts to move records up the coast.. it wouldn't take but another half  inch of parametric spacing on these charts, should the ridge do that and balloon just a little more.

 

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Next week is going to be pretty rollercoaster. Monday looks to be quite cool...especially compared to what we've been dealing with this week and with what looks to transpire Sunday. Tuesday is a bit of a wild card, though I suspect there could be a large west-to-east temperature gradient across the region as that warm front moves through. May even see some convection with the warm front. Wednesday looks like it could be pretty toasty...but lots of factors to consider here; timing of cold front, cloud cover, convective potential...the end of the week...could be quite cool at least across northern New England depending on how far the boundary sags. 

Won't be fun across parts of the Southeast with wildfire potential this week.

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Next week is going to be pretty rollercoaster. Monday looks to be quite cool...especially compared to what we've been dealing with this week and with what looks to transpire Sunday. Tuesday is a bit of a wild card, though I suspect there could be a large west-to-east temperature gradient across the region as that warm front moves through. May even see some convection with the warm front. Wednesday looks like it could be pretty toasty...but lots of factors to consider here; timing of cold front, cloud cover, convective potential...the end of the week...could be quite cool at least across northern New England depending on how far the boundary sags. 

Won't be fun across parts of the Southeast with wildfire potential this week.

my guess

BDL

89 Sun

75 Mon

91 Tue ... I believe that warm sector becomes more coherenty expressing in the guidance as we near on that day ...a diffused boundary whisks through with no inhibition and the models will bite in time and send the temp and DP more than machine guidance suggests at this time. NBM extended products are shirking that potential in my mind...  with a rather abrupt turn around and a "soaring" behavior on temp... I could see a cirrus glump- milk sky at 12z ...maybe even a mid level deck showers ... then 10 ... 11 am it's an open sky steam bath - mind you..I'm visualizing that. It may not be 'in' the guidance per se right now... But as the region is just subsumed by that deep layer tropospheric signal in the Euro - I just appears to be the better fit for trend and telecon ( even tho the latter is fading correlation in theory...).

The NAO is pulses positive in a heavily concerted manner ... The westerlies may get pulled N of N/A as a 'correction vector'

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

my guess

BDL

89 Sun

75 Mon

91 Tue ... I believe that warm front becomes more coherenty expressing in the guidance as we near on that day ...with a rather abrupt turn around and a "soaring" behavior on temp... I could see a cirrus glump and milk sky at 12z ...maybe even a mid level deck showers ... then 10 ... 11 am it's an open sky steam bath - mind you..I'm visualizing that. It may not be 'in' the guidance per se right now... But as the region is just subsumed by that deep layer tropospheric signal in the Euro - I just appears to be the better fit for trend and telecon ( even tho the latter is fading correlation in theory...)

If we are able to quickly get into sunshine Tuesday I certainly agree. Tuesday could be a late day high too (like a 20-21z high) as we are still increasing 850 temps (assuming we're achieving maximum mixing). This warm front looks like it could be pretty active with an extensive high cloud shield...but also have to keep in mind models often time overdo this aspect, especially across our region.

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Looks like BTV didn’t get below 70F on the hourly temps last night.  The nocturnal southerly jet in the valley there cranked again.  Very Caribbean like weather there with increasing south winds overnight on these warm nights.

Dews in the 40s though with very high min, just stays really well mixed all night. 

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