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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice warmup coming later this week. / weekend. 
 

Why is BOX radar still down doesn't BOX and all of NWS for that matter, no longer have a radar worth ever even looking at when we, the tax payers, ultimately were far better off with the previous technology ... no matter how/what/or why they justified no longer using it ?  

 

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54 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

a little cold though for trying to get new seed to sprout 

yeah, I put a bit down hoping we had enough warm days sprinkled in, but the overnight temps didn't help matters....Definitely have to wait until late summer/early fall at this point

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any coastal storms this weekend for camporees?

I'm keeping an eye on Saturday myself. Coastal storm looks to stay south but still a trough and northern stream disturbance and possibly scattered showers and storms and more seasonably mild temps?  Haven't looked carefully but that seemed liked first glance.  

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8 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

I'm keeping an eye on Saturday myself. Coastal storm looks to stay south but still a trough and northern stream disturbance and possibly scattered showers and storms and more seasonably mild temps?  Haven't looked carefully but that seemed liked first glance.  

Seems kind of dewy too 

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Hard to tell which way this will morph .. the D6/7 ... 10 range.

Toe dip version: The EPS, GEPs are in solid agreement and match the operational versions well within error expectation for this sort of time lead... and the coup de gras is that the GFS's own ensemble mean is punching the floor out from underneath the PNA mode... so, I'm willing to haunch and hedge on the side of significant and more 'personal penetrating appeal of warmth' ( hopefully that offends at least someone!). Not sure about how much, but I could see 70/50 .. (milder nocturnal) particularly D8-10, then ranging to 80/60 ... for now. Those could be conservative ranges.  In fact, D3-6 may end up balmy just be high sun through +6 at 900 mb.  Can't account for clouds...But the signal's been gaining momentum in the dispersive telecon layout ( Americans), but also in the said ensembles.

Longer version:   The 00z synoptics of the GGEM and Euro operational runs off the 00z cycle were in impressive overall agreement across that run of days out there. They both materials rather obvious -PNAP pattern, featuring a Great Basin type trough anchor, mass balanced well/coupled by a +1 ... +2 improving height anomalies, spanning 100 to 70 W in girth and stacked clear to the 70th latitudes over eastern Canada...

The GFS is having trouble committing to the ridge aspect in the N, though - an aspect I am suspicious of.

For one, I want the ridge and heat at this time of year ?  Mm hm.  I admit that...  and, admit to my human difficulties in resisting the that transcended allure of thigh tones exposed below the hem-line of the GGEM and Euro's synoptic mini-skirt looks. Because they so well sync up with those desires ... I may have difficulties resisting.

Struggling for objectivity in the debate ... I cannot help but wonder if the operational GFS is just doing what I warned it would do, ..back in DJF of this recent winter, which is never allow warm domes and ridging to bloom over eastern N/A during ensuing warmer months. 

Why? 

Because it has a kind of "quota" problem with lowering heights too much above the westerlies/ ambient N, over the northern latitudes ... It appears to be a cumulative aspect, as well, where it is subtle or even not there in the short side of the short range, ... ranging 1 to 3 dm ( so still unnoticed) of error by 72 hours ...then, 6 or so dm by 144 hours... etc... 12 out there by D10.  Look at the 00z operational Euro over Canada and compare?  Note the circuitous 546dm hgt isopleth by 168 hours: at most points along that line the GFS ends up farther south than the Euro ( or the GGEM in this case...).  

That's not intended to suggest these latter two are inherently more likely to be correct than the GFS; however, since the GFS is ALWAYS doing this... I find it hard to believe that it is ALWAYS right ;) ... ( piece of shit..)  Hyperbole a little, sure.  Probably, in some weird inversion of error mechanics, ...the day it does admit to a D10 pattern change/ridge, it'll do a 2017er/July thing maybe...

What this does:   Because it ends up with excessively lowered heights across those polar-side domains, colder north means the flow everywhere has to integrate with more gradient (due to obvious height compression therein...).       +d(Gradient) = +d(velocity).  As an aside, an aspect of the model's bias that is buried insidiously because the flow all over the planet has been/is faster than normal, anyway - probably owing to the HC expansion mechanics noted since 1974 as part of CC..etc..etc.  How deliciously deceptively hidden that is ...

Anyway, this then runs on to effect the kinematic of aspects such as wave migration speed, wave morphologies at all scales really... but it is particularly notable in causing too much 'progressive' .. or flat faster synoptic evolution. Faster flow doesn't like curved surfaces ... But it is also counter-intuitively adding mechanical power into individual waves. It just happened up here off the coast with that NW Atlantic storm this last week.. The GFS was too deep with cold heights leading, then, the faux gradient it accumulated creates a local synergistic bias ( constructive interference with the S/W wind max(es) ) ... such that the governing S/W ends up stem winding and bombing the low ... Boo rah the Euro for not serving that shit.

The Euro's got its own bag of annoyances to consider every run, too ... which can give rise to amplitude biases in the mid/extended range ... it just gets there through different means.  Along it's 00z cinema, it appears to over-asses has little tough nodes at D3 and again D6 ...which still allow for the ridge evolution but they are likely not going to be as deep/evolved - so if anything the 'correction vector' with those is to think they'll be less interfering in reality.

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It does look to turn considerably warmer after this weekend. Good for Ineedsnow. Will be IneedAC soon. Bring the warmth and dews.

All the high CAPE stays in the Plains :( 

It's such torture watching it creep east on the models an then when it gets to the door of the Northeast...BOOM it retreats back. It's like being at a concert sitting in the front row and having Taylor Swift come at you then go back to the stage.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

All the high CAPE stays in the Plains :( 

It's such torture watching it creep east on the models an then when it gets to the door of the Northeast...BOOM it retreats back. It's like being at a concert sitting in the front row and having Taylor Swift come at you then go back to the stage.

As long as we get some periodic rain, I could care less. 

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Need a stratus gauge next to it to test it.

This.  We have access to like 20 sites around DFW with collocated tipping buckets and disdrometers, and also have radar based QPE point measurements over each site.  Tipping buckets on average seem to run about 5-10% lower than disdrometers.  The radar estimates are pretty close to the tipping buckets or a shade higher, but with more variability... (maybe a function of beamheight or X band attenuation in given events?).  But really there's nothing like a stratus gauge... too bad you need the man in the loop.

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17 minutes ago, radarman said:

This.  We have access to like 20 sites around DFW with collocated tipping buckets and disdrometers, and also have radar based QPE point measurements over each site.  Tipping buckets on average seem to run about 5-10% lower than disdrometers.  The radar estimates are pretty close to the tipping buckets or a shade higher, but with more variability... (maybe a function of beamheight or X band attenuation in given events?).  But really there's nothing like a stratus gauge... too bad you need the man in the loop.

I just bought an 8” rainwise rainew 111 to wire up to the Davis. The larger diameter should yield a better catch. We’ll see. 
https://www.scaledinstruments.com/shop/rainwise/rain-gauges-rainwise/rainwise-rainew-111-tipping-bucket-wired-rain-gauge/

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I just bought an 8” rainwise rainew 111 to wire up to the Davis. The larger diameter should yield a better catch. We’ll see. 
https://www.scaledinstruments.com/shop/rainwise/rain-gauges-rainwise/rainwise-rainew-111-tipping-bucket-wired-rain-gauge/

Can you use it to provide a parallel estimate as the previous gauge you have or are you going to remove the other one?  If the former, please post the differences you're seeing sometime. 

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