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Severe Weather April 27-28th 2021


cheese007
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I'm glad this isn't in Loveland, CO

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY...
    
At 732 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Loveland, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

 

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That's just Reed doing Reed things. He acts that way for three reasons. 1) He has an insane passion for severe weather. 2) He knows that he can hype ANYTHING to generate more clicks, views, ratings, etc. which generates him money. 3) He has a screw loose in his head. :twister:

But whatever you say about him, the dude just gets it done more often than not.

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4/28-- (Only) 15% hatched hail probabilities for S Texas, with 5%/15%/15% for some areas near the Red River also

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Further to the south into southwest Texas, strong instability is
   expected to develop, with MLCAPE values reaching the 2000 to 3000
   J/kg range. Convection should develop in the higher terrain of
   northern Mexico and move eastward into the Del Rio, Texas area
   during the early evening. The strong instability combined with 60 to
   70 kt of deep-layer shear should be favorable for large hail, with
   some hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. A
   tornado threat may also develop with supercells that move across
   southwest Texas this evening.

HRW-NMMB at 27 hours

8Huu2ER.jpg

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Several things…

Opted to chase Colorado yesterday and ended up missing the landspouts. Not a big deal, I’m kind of a tornado snob, but it was fitting that I missed tornadoes closer to home, in NW Texas, yet again. The supercell, in general, was very dusty/grungy, so there weren’t too many photo opportunities.

It looks like a tornado hit the town west of where I live last night…

Torn between Rel Rio and NW Texas again. If the terrain and road networks were better, I’d definitely go with the southern target. Still reviewing data, but it’s also been interesting to see tornado warnings and even a couple tornadoes this morning via radar. We should be in for another busy day…

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58 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Torn between Rel Rio and NW Texas again. If the terrain and road networks were better, I’d definitely go with the southern target. Still reviewing data, but it’s also been interesting to see tornado warnings and even a couple tornadoes this morning via radar. We should be in for another busy day…

The 850 flow is pretty much nil across NW Texas today I would be surprised if we see any tornadoes there today. I would play south and hope for some Del Rio magic.

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14 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Tornado watch is up with 50/30 probabilities, does not include DFW 

WW0119 Radar

For a second, there were indications that the outflow boundary (now over DFW) would steal the show, which might have been why the enhanced risk area was shifted eastward.

Apparently, seeing the latest radar trends, it's not going to work out that way.

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The outflow boundary extends well into central TX as well, and there's also a lot more instability in that vicinity compared to here it seems. Maybe we'll get a local expansion of the tornado watch if the situation warrants it later on, but things might also get squall-ish by the time storms arrive here. Still a lot of time to watch the setup evolve locally, but I think the tornado threat will maximize off to our west/southwest where the watch currently covers.

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11 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

The outflow boundary extends well into central TX as well, and there's also a lot more instability in that vicinity compared to here it seems. Maybe we'll get a local expansion of the tornado watch if the situation warrants it later on, but things might also get squall-ish by the time storms arrive here. Still a lot of time to watch the setup evolve locally, but I think the tornado threat will maximize off to our west/southwest where the watch currently covers.

That's what the HRRR shows.

But I suspect things will have transitioned to a heavy rain threat by then.

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