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April 20-21 late season snow potential


Hoosier
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Seasonal Trends............

Remember the mid February storm.   Trended SE but corrected more amped at go time.  Can't ignore this.  NAM hints at it .....GFS fails SE as it usually does..........and the Euro will sit back and clean up.  

This will be a Redux of that storm, in spirit at least.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Baum said:

trending toward a non event. Let order be restored. Basically, a miserable two days in mid-late April. Not unusual.

Highs in the 30s are not unusual for Mid to Late April ? I"m pretty sure your average is way warmer than that.

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25 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Highs in the 30s are not unusual for Mid to Late April ? I"m pretty sure your average is way warmer than that.

Unusual vs. historic. Return intervals. Essentially what I’m saying is a lot of people want to see a once in a generation/lifetime/recorded history event, as opposed to something that is unusual compared to climate normals but occurs fairly regularly.

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55 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Seasonal Trends............

Remember the mid February storm.   Trended SE but corrected more amped at go time.  Can't ignore this.  NAM hints at it .....GFS fails SE as it usually does..........and the Euro will sit back and clean up.  

This will be a Redux of that storm, in spirit at least.  

 

Generally not a fan of the seasonal trend line of argument, but I do think it is a mistake to not weight the NAM into the forecast.  How much, well, that's what people get paid for lol.  The early part of this event in particular is very mesoscale driven, which is usually NAM wheelhouse.

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29 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Highs in the 30s are not unusual for Mid to Late April ? I"m pretty sure your average is way warmer than that.

we've had a heavy april snowfall,even a May event, each of the last three seasons. As a somewhat approximate comparison prior to each of the last 3 years had an event not really seen since I believe(guesstimate here) April 14,1961 and April of 1972. Thus, the rare has become the norm. So a one day high of 38 in April is not all that atypical. Would also say if precip ends up lighter than advertised temps will probably be in the 40's easy. 

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7 minutes ago, Baum said:

we've had a heavy april snowfall,even a May event, each of the last three seasons. As a somewhat approximate comparison prior to each of the last 3 years had an event not really seen since I believe(guesstimate here) April 14,1961 and April of 1972. Thus, the rare has become the norm. So a one day high of 38 in April is not all that atypical. Would also say if precip ends up lighter than advertised temps will probably be in the 40's easy. 

Would point out though that the April snows of the past few years targeted central/northern LOT.  This one looks to be focused farther south, and it's been a long time since areas south of I-80 in LOT had significant snow so late in April (especially if it ends up being a 3-6" thing).

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would point out though that the April snows of the past few years targeted central/northern LOT.  This one looks to be focused farther south, and it's been a long time since areas south of I-80 in LOT had significant snow so late in April (especially if it ends up being a 3-6" thing).

it's all yours...:D

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27 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

18Z GFS is same track as 12Z, guess we'll see what 0Z does

Pretty wide spread between the GFS/NAM this close in.

I'd be stunned if the northern edge of the snow ends up as far south as the GFS.  Not that I think the NAM is going to nail that either. 

 

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ORD has broken a daily snowfall record in April 3 years in a row: 

2.0" on 4/9/2018

5.4" on 4/14/2019 and 2.5" on 4/27/2019

1.7" on 4/15/2020 and 3.0" on 4/17/2020

The daily record for 4/20 is 0.2" in 1943.  That should be a lay up to break even though you never know what you're going to get in terms of measuring at ORD.

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ORD has broken a daily snowfall record in April 3 years in a row: 
2.0" on 4/9/2018
5.4" on 4/14/2019 and 2.5" on 4/27/2019
1.7" on 4/15/2020 and 3.0" on 4/17/2020
The daily record for 4/20 is 0.2" in 1943.  That should be a lay up to break even though you never know what you're going to get in terms of measuring at ORD.

If a majority of guidance is right, 0.2” is even a stretch.


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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


If a majority of guidance is right, 0.2” is even a stretch.


.

Yeah, well, we'll see.  Obviously I've made no secret that I am skeptical of it ending up so far south.  :D

My guess would be that most of Cook county ends up with over 1"

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I'm skeptical of how much falls during the day Tuesday if rates aren't heavy. And a majority of the guidance has the heavier snow toward and after sunset Tuesday evening mostly east of the CWA.

 

I was thinking back to Feb 24 2016 when the northwest fringe just outside the heavy snow band that nailed the south burbs into northwest Indiana was essentially white rain despite coming down at a good clip at times. And that was in late February.

 

 

 

 

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Detroit and Toledo continue to be in line for what appears to be a 2” or greater snowfall for Tuesday into Wednesday (April 20-21).

Toledo has had four prior snowfalls of 1” or more on or after April 20:

April 21, 1922: 2.0”

May 8-9, 1923: 4.0”

May 6-7, 1989: 1.3”

April 23-24, 2005: 4.0”

The most recent measurable snowfall on or after April 20 occurred on April 20, 2013 when 0.3” snow was measured.

Daily snowfall records are:

April 20: Detroit: 1.2”, 1947; Toledo: 0.3”, 2013

April 21: Detroit: 0.3”, 1978; Toledo: 2.0”, 1922

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47 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm skeptical of how much falls during the day Tuesday if rates aren't heavy. And a majority of the guidance has the heavier snow toward and after sunset Tuesday evening mostly east of the CWA.

 

I was thinking back to Feb 24 2016 when the northwest fringe just outside the heavy snow band that nailed the south burbs into northwest Indiana was essentially white rain despite coming down at a good clip at times. And that was in late February.

 

 

 

 

It would help if we could get consensus between the NAM/hires models and the globals.  Even in the NAM/hires scenario though, it doesn't appear peak rates would be quite as heavy in the LOT cwa as the infamous 4/14/19 event.

 

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