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April 15 16 Obs Thread


wxeyeNH
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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Totally agree. Need good spots for shelf cloud season, high elevation vistas, and big surf.

BDL is pretty sick to go to. Even UCONN hospital in Farmington is really good but that mostly looks north and east...and speaking of that Rockledge Golf Course in West Hartford which actually looks over UCONN hospital. Also next to North Branford PD...very nice open field which looks west. 

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16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

About to leave S VT hotel .

That band on radar is about done and that narrow second part of the band moving into SE VT has pingers now at 2k

17” total . Cleared once at 9am. Most fell after 7am . Basically skunked last nite 

Wow, Mitch only had like 7.5" at 1pm. cant imagine he has more than 10".  What town again?  Being a little further east helped with that band it seems.

Measured 11.1" depth in Winhall around 2k..prob little more with a clear.

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Just now, White Rain said:

Do you know where that is. Guessing its by the auto road, pine hill rd maybe? That’s at like 1400’.  I was thinking of taking the 12 minute or so drive up there last night but then we flipped. There are some lowish spots in Princeton too so probably big differences across town.

Near base of WAWA

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1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Fun event... NAM was excessive but had the right idea most of the way and before most other guidance

HRRR / RAP yesterday were spot on for 495 belt...

Almost to Plymouth Bay in her little loop...

20211061816_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-1200x1200.thumb.jpeg.658086512ede88350aebdfd102601388.jpeg

 

Yeah it looks like the low got to around Plymouth, just NW of the Canal. The Euro/Navy/Canadian blend I use had the right idea, and I actually got the track of the low right in my forecast (I expected a low right over the outer cape). The model blend that I use did a great job, and is not why my forecast busted. I don’t blame the navy at all for my forecast busting, as models are tools to make forecasts, they aren’t meant to rip and read. My forecast busted because I interpreted the model data incorrectly, which is on me as the forecaster, not the Navy. I forecasted 8:1 ratios and missed a warm layer resulted in more rain and less snow, and once snow did come ratios werent even 4:1 never mind 8:1. The gfs, as usual was garbage with it constantly retrograding the low into Worcester (not even close, they got a solid snow storm there). This was a fun storm to track and I feel that I learned a lot from it, and I plan on using what I learned to make better forecasts in the future.

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