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April 15 16 Obs Thread


wxeyeNH
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yeah... as Scott mentioned a while ago, the 'inundation' phase may be past by the storm's life cycle,... now separating into a banded affair more so on rad and when it's mid April ...those attenuation regions may not do well - we aren't here.  ..heh.

When we maxed this beyotch ...circa 10 am, we were borderline S+ for a stint, and the temp made its way down to 32.X ... but since, we keep lulling on rad and ground truth has been light snow tending to fall more and more like white rain, and the temp has bulged to 35 ... So, if you're lucky enough to be in a band, cheers, but this isn't being fairly distributed as spring cruelty seldom ever is anyway - LOL

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not one of my better forecasts, but I was right about you getting hosed.....

Yes, easterly flow when surrounded by hills is not ideal.  Elevation really helped.  My friend out at Berkshire East said they only had a sloppy inch or two at the base which is at about 600’  meanwhile places in Plainfield and Rowe had 5-7” at 1000’. 

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19 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

about 3 here in boxborough, only about a half an inch when I left winsted at 5 this morning...but the drive in, from about belchertown to auburn was a nightmare, then up 495 it wasn't bad, until I got here, then goose feathers put a couple inches down in a matter of less than an hour, just mod flakes now...congrats on those under that band, good April dumping, reminds me of I think 82, or 83, when we got hammered during spring break..

Yup it was ‘82. Now that was something truly historic..blizzard like conditions and over 20 plus inches of accumulation here.  This isn’t even close to that one..at least in CT.  That had some real cold with it...not borderline at all with that one. That was region wide...not elevation dependent at all in ‘82. 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah 5F lower could've gotten yesterday's precip to fall as all snow, plus today.  Would've been a monster snowstorm for pretty much all if yesterday morning we had 0C at 850mb.

Yep, not only would less QPF be wasted as rain (I must have gotten 2+ inches of QPF as rain), but the snow ratios would have increased as well (in many areas like where I live the ratios are horrible, less than 2:1, which is why snow totals are so low). If this same storm happened a month ago my forecast might have verified, and if it happened 2 months ago this storm would have been a top 10 blizzard of all time. I forecasted 15-25 inches of snow in my area (assumed 8:1 ratios, 2-3 inches liquid snow and .5-1 inches liquid of rain). However there must have been a sneaky warm layer at 925 mb (I can only look at 850 and 700mb, not 925mb temps on tropical tidbits, this may be a small part of (of course the biggest reason is I’m not a met and don’t really know what I’m doing yet) the reason why I keep overestimating snow ratios and underestimating how much QPF is wasted as rain. In reality, I ended up with around 1.5 in of rain and maybe .6-.1 inches of liquid equivalent falling as snow, but the ratios were less than even 1:1 as I have a slushy coating, not 6-10 inches of snow. 

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Just now, George001 said:

Yep, not only would less QPF be wasted as rain (I must have gotten 2+ inches of QPF as rain), but the snow ratios would have increased as well (in many areas like where I live the ratios are horrible, less than 2:1, which is why snow totals are so low). If this same storm happened a month ago my forecast might have verified, and if it happened 2 months ago this storm would have been a top 10 blizzard of all time. I forecasted 15-25 inches of snow in my area (assumed 8:1 ratios, 2-3 inches liquid snow and .5-1 inches liquid of rain). However there must have been a sneaky warm layer at 925 mb (I can only look at 850 and 700mb, not 925mb temps on tropical tidbits, this may be a small part of (of course the biggest reason is I’m not a met and don’t really know what I’m doing yet) the reason why I keep overestimating snow ratios and underestimating how much QPF is wasted as rain. In reality, I ended up with around 1.5 in of rain and maybe .6-.1 inches of liquid equivalent falling as snow, but the ratios were less than even 1:1 as I have a slushy coating, not 6-10 inches of snow. 

925 is a critical level. You need to look at weather.cod or pivotal.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Apologize if this has been discussed.... but how is there no BOX headlines in NE CT from Ginxy to Kev?  Or in a few other places around there?

Seeing photos of like 4-8" of heavy wet snow in so many spots... not even a SPS.

I said last night Tolland county should have an advisory out. No idea what happened today. Maybe Friyay there?

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Apologize if this has been discussed.... but how is there no BOX headlines in NE CT from Ginxy to Kev?  Or in a few other places around there?

Seeing photos of like 4-8" of heavy wet snow in so many spots... not even a SPS.

Most of them there pay little attention to their CT zones. They don’t spend any time on it or knowing the geography or Climo especially in the more rural areas. It’s all Mass and RI all the time . There’s only 2 or 3 Mets there that understand the area . It’s been that way for several years. 

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yep, not only would less QPF be wasted as rain (I must have gotten 2+ inches of QPF as rain), but the snow ratios would have increased as well (in many areas like where I live the ratios are horrible, less than 2:1, which is why snow totals are so low). If this same storm happened a month ago my forecast might have verified, and if it happened 2 months ago this storm would have been a top 10 blizzard of all time. I forecasted 15-25 inches of snow in my area (assumed 8:1 ratios, 2-3 inches liquid snow and .5-1 inches liquid of rain). However there must have been a sneaky warm layer at 925 mb (I can only look at 850 and 700mb, not 925mb temps on tropical tidbits, this may be a small part of (of course the biggest reason is I’m not a met and don’t really know what I’m doing yet) the reason why I keep overestimating snow ratios and underestimating how much QPF is wasted as rain. In reality, I ended up with around 1.5 in of rain and maybe .6-.1 inches of liquid equivalent falling as snow, but the ratios were less than even 1:1 as I have a slushy coating, not 6-10 inches of snow. 

We tried to tell ya but look at 925 which TT doesn’t have. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I said last night Tolland county should have an advisory out. No idea what happened today. Maybe Friyay there?

That was well modeled and you remember Ryan pointing out that Kevin would  do well.   No everyone is surprised....

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Apologize if this has been discussed.... but how is there no BOX headlines in NE CT from Ginxy to Kev?  Or in a few other places around there?

Seeing photos of like 4-8" of heavy wet snow in so many spots... not even a SPS.

Lol this mornings drive to the store was horrendous. 6 inches here I think we are done accumulating . Jerry’s Squirrels are hungry

C3B9EA23-0A9F-4B86-AE52-8437861F94F0.jpeg

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan had me 1 to 3. The eastern hills always get forgotten. Bet up my hill had 8

Yeah I didn’t expect anything.  Especially when I was up to pee at 7:30 and it was pouring rain.  I may have slept later but up again at 10:30 and looked out dumbfounded!

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of them there pay little attention to their CT zones. They don’t spend any time on it or knowing the geography or Climo especially in the more rural areas. It’s all Mass and RI all the time . There’s only 2 or 3 Mets there that understand the area . It’s been that way for several years. 

I could see if it was only Union or your hill... isolated.  But it seems like most of those two counties between you and Ginxy.  My dad sent a shot from their summer golf course in Thompson, CT and it looks like 4-6" on the course.  No idea elevation, but seeing enough reports from those two counties that it's odd.

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