Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April 15-16 interior snow threat


ORH_wxman
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Kev flip at like 4am? Hrrr pounds Kevin to Worcester. 

HRRR and RAP have been ridiculous for like 8-10 runs in a row. I'm not biting fully on them because we know their issues beyond 6 hours, but it's something to watch considering that some of the real models have shown these types of solutions at various times. There could be a 6 hour window of very heavy snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

HRRR and RAP have been ridiculous for like 8-10 runs in a row. I'm not biting fully on them because we know their issues beyond 6 hours, but it's something to watch considering that some of the real models have shown these types of solutions at various times. There could be a 6 hour window of very heavy snow.

That look on the HRRR is impressive. Honestly if I didn't have to work, I'd join you for a few bowls on the deck. :lol:    Always nice to see the last event of the season. 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re not getting a biggie man. Your 15-40” forecast for NW of 95 is going down like a fat kid on a slip and slide. 

40 no, but 15 from Boston to Providence with 2 feet+ in the mountains? I can see it, we just need the low a bit more SE. It’s aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0.0 chance. 

I disagree, the euro just 2 runs ago showed this scenario (the newer run isn’t as good, but it’s still very close). Even the most recent run the more aggressive models (Euro and Navy) are the better ones so I remain optimistic. The navy in particular is a foot+ right to the cape with 20+ in my area (I’m not quite that aggressive since I’m using the euro as well)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It did not and you can’t go by clown maps anyway. 

I’m not using the clown maps. No clown map besides maybe the long range nam (which is garbage anyways) showed anywhere near what I forecast. I don’t use snow maps when making forecasts, what I do is I look at the 500 millibar pattern to try and figure out if the surface presentation makes sense (on the euro it seemed to make sense), then I check the temp profiles in the upper levels, and if there are no warm layers I go through the run and look at how much QPF falls under a temp profile that supports snow. Based on what I have seen from the upper level temps, the snow maps are drastically underestimating the amount of snow. What the models say is a cold rain is a heavy wet snow based on the temp profiles. My analysis of the 6z euro was that the evolution supported over a foot of snow (thermal profiles supported 1.5-2 inches of QPF as snow, but ratios less than 10:1 so not more like 12-15 inches instead of 15-20 inches) in my backyard even though the maps only had like 6. 

  • Weenie 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, joey2002 said:


Only a 10% chance of Worcester seeing 1”?  
 

And why is Kevin’s high end amount the same as his expected NWS 1-2” snowfall? 
 

Are they looking at the same models as we are?  :huh:

GYX does it too with the high end maps. They have no problem spreading 0’s with the low end ones though. ;)

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not using the clown maps. No clown map besides maybe the long range nam (which is garbage anyways) showed anywhere near what I forecast. I don’t use snow maps when making forecasts, what I do is I look at the 500 millibar pattern to try and figure out if the surface presentation makes sense (on the euro it seemed to make sense), then I check the temp profiles in the upper levels, and if there are no warm layers I go through the run and look at how much QPF falls under a temp profile that supports snow. Based on what I have seen from the upper level temps, the snow maps are drastically underestimating the amount of snow. What the models say is a cold rain is a heavy wet snow based on the temp profiles. My analysis of the 6z euro was that the evolution supported over a foot of snow (thermal profiles supported 1.5-2 inches of QPF as snow, but ratios less than 10:1 so not more like 12-15 inches instead of 15-20 inches) in my backyard even though the maps only had like 6. 

put up your forecast map.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...