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April 15-16 interior snow threat


ORH_wxman
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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha...

Lot of hedging going on in here today ... Can't say I blame anyone under the circumstances. No one wants ...or perhaps "dares" is more like it, to call a major snow storm in this, and probably...taking the peevishness and averaging it against the 06z Euro/12z NAM FOUS grid ... probably yields what Ryan sort of just laid out for CT ...ranging to 12 or 14 up there at 850" els by the border with NH ...

Might be time to just call that and let the chips fall where they may - or in this case... parachutes.

I wouldn’t say no one dares to call for a major snow storm.... 

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

48.1/32  Light rain and sleet

Rain started half an hour ago but is now mixed with ice pellets.  I didn't expect any frozen this quickly.  Going to start an obs thread

Dry layer. Should go to all rain for a bit before flipping to snow. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but I would imagine that is still a limiting factor in far NE areas....

The key is how far west it eventually makes before looping back SE...so we see it eventually make it to RI after crossing the western Cape and then it loops back to ACK....if the peak western advance is, say, PYM or GHG instead, then that matters a lot for that 495 belt.

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See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact difference that it still, despite the short range, has uncertainty headaches. 

The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype.   It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? 

I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. 

But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamic pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Interesting looking dry slot on the Euro. 

As much as I hate to say it... this is a Kevin crusher. 

Maybe even west of there. It does that back bent thing. Although, west of him as lower elevation. But yeah after seeing the euro, that would get him really good.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact implications that it's still, despite the short range, got uncertainty. 

The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype.   It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? 
 

I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. 

But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamics pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

Yes, we wouldn't be sweating these wiggles when the column is 8C to 10C colder in mid February. But in mid-April, they matter.

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact implications that it's still, despite the short range, got uncertainty. 

The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype.   It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? 
 

I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. 

But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamics pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

Exactly.  In Feb it’s noise.  Now it’s an earthquake.  Simple as that. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe even west of there. It does that back bent thing. Although, west of him as lower elevation. But yeah after seeing the euro, that would get him really good.

I'd be fine with a 4-8 kind of deal for Woody. Pretty good model agreement.

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Ironically ...I'd be fine with nothing for that matter.  Ha ha,  don't even want snow personally ... not this late.  78 F with maple blossoms beginning to fill the air with scents that trigger homage and visions of dream girl ( or whatever floats one's WOKE-boat ... ), seems difficult to compete with if were up to me.

ah hell.  But to become a Met Jedi Master, over come one's fears must you

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

5 to 1 is still 8 to 10 for those who flip, places like Hunchie and Pete probably 8 to 1 and earlier flip. Early call is Hunchie 12 Pete 12 ORH 10 Kev 8

We will have a good idea of how things are progressing by about midnight or 1am. If we are seeing a place like ORH flipped before midight, then it could be pretty prolific there. That's assuming that we don't get a low that drives back into your fanny and dryslots 2/3rds of SNE too....but I'm doubting those solutions at the moment as I watch each run of the RAP/HRRR.

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