dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s April 16th...I don’t think we know what’s gonna happen yet? Modeling has this thing all over the place. lil changes will have a huge impact at this very late date. Best to expect nothing much in most areas outside of the highest terrain with something like this. Going to be a nice cold april rain for many, I don't much care for my BY as its been quite wet but area lakes are pretty low for this time of year due to lack of snow up here and nothing to melt and runoff so we can use it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s April 16th...I don’t think we know what’s gonna happen yet? Modeling has this thing all over the place. lil changes will have a huge impact at this very late date. Best to expect nothing much in most areas outside of the highest terrain with something like this. one man does know what is going to happen....updated forecast from George... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: o many weakened limbs and trees from the recent stretch of high winds the past year...when we crank up severe season in another month going to be seeing lots of damage this summer. If this is a summer we finally get a derecho...there may not be any trees left come September Don’t forget tropical. Long Island Express the sequel is coming in August. Between snow, severe, drought, and tropical we should achieve total deforestation by Labor Day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: you might get smoked if the NAM verifies. Really tightens up H7 just off to your east with a pretty impressive fronto band just west of it...which happens to look to be from like ORH to you Hopefully we smoke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 I wouldn't expect a damn thing other than white rain at the peak inside 495 unless you're on the northern end of that belt near Ray 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lol... Tim Kelly of NECN tweeted FOUS data and said "if this is right we are screwed" Yup ... he's right - that column ( was trying to use literary technique to back the reader into that notion ...) of data connotes historically in a triangulum roughtly NW RI, to maybe Waltham, Bedford and Worecster. I dunno, due small compact car types start tenting at 20" ... ? No exaggeration either. 2. to 2.5" QPF even if at 8:1 and compaction, is probably actually worse in terms of societal impact for everything from removal to grid and back. I have to say, ever since the day before the December 23rd event of 1997 ( not April 1 earlier that year), when the then, 'ETA' - same NAM model different header - FOUS had Logan with this profile below, I have been hesitant to second guess the isothermal or colder profile of the FOUS grids: 800 mb -3 C; 900 mb 0 C; 980 mb ( mid/upper floors of the Prudential) +2 C. Total QPF for 6 hours was ~ .54 if memory serves.... and the forecast was for 1-3" in the Worcester Hills ending as drizzle, with perhaps some slush in the city... That was the general gist. 21" at Tyngsborough and a general 14 to 18" just about everywhere - 'mean, the whole system out performed guidance et al by a goodly amount anyway...but then the cold profile not being taken seriously or just not seen in that grid was laughable. Objectively it is not the same ETA model ...it's been mangled by generational upgrades and so forth, and so the correction vectoring ( if you will ) may not be the same. And all the other guidance' have also had their evolutions .. and, it's f'n April 15 . We'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 hour ago, White Rain said: I went there almost 15 years ago for one of their “special” three course dinners and wine tastings. It was good but the main course was a 2 oz filet and we left hungrier than when we came in. Forced us to drink a lot of wine with the wait between courses. Yeah I went there once... saw a Lambo in the parking lot. Had the escargot which was good, but you're right about the wine drinking. Would be a good spot to drive to from my place, travel all along weenie ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: o many weakened limbs and trees from the recent stretch of high winds the past year...when we crank up severe season in another month going to be seeing lots of damage this summer. If this is a summer we finally get a derecho...there may not be any trees left come September I hope if we get another one (derecho) it lasts more than 4.5 seconds like the one we got last October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Without seeing the gfs, I noticed guidance CAA a tad at 925 into interior NE MA and slings that into CT and RI. What you need to see is the combo of being in that slightly cooler air along with significant lift. Having that CAA will help a bit in interior eastern areas that are a little lower. It’s obviously nice to see in the higher spots too. The other guidance like Reggie has that only further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably a 6 hr window where it goes nuts before the slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 GFS crush job here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Low over SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Berks and Mitch buried on the goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Probably a 6 hr window where it goes nuts before the slot. It's like a 12/9/05 type death CCB before it slots/occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's like a 12/9/05 type death CCB before it slots/occludes. Haha yep. Speaking of, 12z gfs clobbers the Berks into monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 wow GFS even a bit interesting in northern CT for a few inches. CCB gets pretty close to grazing into BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: wow GFS even a bit interesting in northern CT for a few inches. CCB gets pretty close to grazing into BDL Good for NW part of state. Slots more east of BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Epic run hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 There's going to be some huge differences between those pounding at 32.5F and those at 33.5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Good for NW part of state. Slots more east of BDL. some parts of the hills could get 3-6'' if this is correct...which I mean seems to becoming more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: wow GFS even a bit interesting in northern CT for a few inches. CCB gets pretty close to grazing into BDL Pounder NCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 May have missed it posted, but RGEM is Berks/Mitch/Monads as well. Pretty warm/meh up here too with 925 only down to -1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 The GFS is awfully dry above 700mb. Verbatim, those snow amounts on the clown maps are going to be way overdone. It slots SNE quickly above 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 Normally it wouldn't matter in winter with a colder profile, but you really need the saturation and lift I think for anything good tomorrow. I didn't see much of that outside of Berkshire county into VT and NH. At least on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Berks and Mitch buried on the goofus. Totally shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Totally Shocked. Yeah... I think the end game here is probably the usual suspects. Tough to do better than that so late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 15, 2021 Author Share Posted April 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Normally it wouldn't matter in winter with a colder profile, but you really need the saturation and lift I think for anything good tomorrow. I didn't much of that outside of Berkshire county into VT and NH. At least on the GFS. Yeah if GFS verifies, prob basically nothing here. ORH would probably still get decent snows with some elevation, but you're looking at mostly nuisance crap to the east. We want a 06z Euro/12zNAM/RAP/HRRR type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 It appears the folks east of ORH had their 06z fun. Now back to hoping our fertilizer/seed doesn't wash away. Congrats C/W Mass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 15, 2021 Share Posted April 15, 2021 hmmm, VT back on table lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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