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April 15-16 interior snow threat


ORH_wxman
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Oh I know. S+ will stick. Just easier to accumulate overall. 

Yeah no doubt. If that same storm happened 12 hours difference, it prob dumps 20-30% more snow due to better ratios. 

But it’s still pound town even during the day on a NAM setup. And 1987 shows that when you get the omega, it doesn’t matter that much when it happens. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

October 2011 on that NAM run. 

Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM

Georgie said that this morning, and Somebody said this morning that 4/97 was a completely different set up?  So Who knows??  NAM hasn’t  backed down.... definitely making it tougher to discount it each run. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Georgie said that this morning, and Somebody said this morning that 4/97 was a completely different set up?  So Who knows??  NAM hasn’t  backed down.... definitely making it tougher to discount it each run. 

They may have been referring to the leading whole synopsis across the continent included -

I mean the cyclone alone ...
 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM didn’t move too much. It tickled SE but not enough for a big dog solution over most of SNE. 

It is still an impressive solution for ORH county up into S VT and Monads. 

RT 2 and N needs to watch.  Higher elevations obviously game on but Greenfield, Brattleboro, Keene areas could have a nice late season snow (1-3").  HubbDave will have downplayed himself to a warning event.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM

Was gonna say, don't even go there...! That there is hallowed ground haha

Definite resemblance with some features, but 1997 had significantly sharper digging trough, surface deepening, longer duration...

3/31 9z:

033109.thumb.png.5933fb9ddd8b92f30c5f511e3ed64b38.png

4/1:

H5:

0401h5hght.gif.73b27f65c8d941a45851ebee0f4c855c.gif

H8:

0401h8hght.gif.02d89632786cc103af16d10e56175b32.gif

Sfc:

0401sfcprs.gif.3f4ebe801e415ad6b6733182fddf9980.gif

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

RT 2 and N needs to watch.  Higher elevations obviously game on but Greenfield, Brattleboro, Keene areas could have a nice late season snow (1-3").  HubbDave will have downplayed himself to a warning event.

In all seriousness , gun to head at this moment 

I think we sees a sloppy inch or two for the CP 15 or so miles inland if things break ok , might be two bouts of snow there early am and again Friday late day , and 3-5” at 500” around 495 and 5-10” for N Orh county

I see a big elevation snow in western areas and I would guess that there will be some areas near 2.4-2.5 K that see 2 feet in S VT to maybe N Berks for areas that flip and accumulate before dark . I believe Kev area is extremely hard to forecast and likely sees 5-6” at 1K 
 

I could see my area getting advisory amount in fire hose Friday am and I could see greenfield getting 3-4 of glopppp. I see my area having a better shot of getting shut out currently .

 

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My top analogs for this storm:

1. April 1st 1997 

2. March 8th 2013 

3. Early Dec 2019

4. Feb 2 2021

I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

My top analogs for this storm:

1. April 1st 1997 

2. March 8th 2013 

3. Early Dec 2019

4. Feb 2 2021

I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog. 

I think you mean an EAST to WEST fetch ..right? 

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Just now, George001 said:

My top analogs for this storm:

1. April 1st 1997 

2. March 8th 2013 

3. Early Dec 2019

4. Feb 2 2021

I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog. 

If all of the atmospheric dynamics, currently modeled, come into play, this can be a baby April 97 for elevated areas in SNE but that storm was a much different animal.

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