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2021 Spring/ Summer Mountains thread


Met1985
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I'm curious why Blacksburg hasn't issued a FFW for Watauga/Ashe Counties at least. Their AFD calls for up to 6" and mentions flooding concerns but no watch. 

Also worth noting my station picked up a 1.79"/hr rate in the middle of that last batch at 6:13PM.  The dry rut that is now a full blown creek next to my house seems to agree.

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I didn’t see it posted but there’s a high risk from the WPC for today

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR WESTERN 
NORTH CAROLINA...

...East/Southern and Central Appalachians...
For the Southern Appalachians, Fred is expected to track very near 
to west of the area, initially bringing upslope flow of ~40 kts 
and ML CAPE up to 2000 J/kg into the region.  Just to the west, 
Fred's comma head rain pattern is expected to lead to heavy 
rainfall west of the chain, which some feeder bands in its wake 
possibly impacting western slopes as well.  While model guidance 
showed disperson, it did not where it mattered most in the western 
Carolinas.  The border of Transylvania/Jackson County NC was hit 
with heavy rainfall Monday morning, with 4-9" reported.  This is 
also where the guidance projects another 7"+ of rainfall on 
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  With an additional 10" possible 
locally, and the 00z HREF indicating a 90% chance of exceeding the 
100 year recurrence interval, coordinated with the GSP/Greer SC 
forecast office to issue a High Risk area covering from the 
vicinity of Asheville NC southwestward to near the SC/NC/GA border 
junction.  This degree of rainfall could lead to landslides/slope 
failures.

The risk of land slips as well as scattered to numerous flash 
flood events extends across the Moderate Risk area encompassing 
terrain of northeast GA, northwest SC, and the remainder of 
western NC.  A broad area of 4-8" is expected.  A broader Slight 
Risk encompasses where rain bands could set up across the FL Big 
Bend early and SC during the morning/afternoon as well as areas 
which have received 200-400% of their two week average rainfall 
near the Fall Line in VA and MD, and includes the D.C. area.  
Impacts across PA and NY should be mitigated by below average 
rainfall over the past couple of weeks.

 

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9 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I didn’t see it posted but there’s a high risk from the WPC for today

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR WESTERN 
NORTH CAROLINA...

...East/Southern and Central Appalachians...
For the Southern Appalachians, Fred is expected to track very near 
to west of the area, initially bringing upslope flow of ~40 kts 
and ML CAPE up to 2000 J/kg into the region.  Just to the west, 
Fred's comma head rain pattern is expected to lead to heavy 
rainfall west of the chain, which some feeder bands in its wake 
possibly impacting western slopes as well.  While model guidance 
showed disperson, it did not where it mattered most in the western 
Carolinas.  The border of Transylvania/Jackson County NC was hit 
with heavy rainfall Monday morning, with 4-9" reported.  This is 
also where the guidance projects another 7"+ of rainfall on 
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  With an additional 10" possible 
locally, and the 00z HREF indicating a 90% chance of exceeding the 
100 year recurrence interval, coordinated with the GSP/Greer SC 
forecast office to issue a High Risk area covering from the 
vicinity of Asheville NC southwestward to near the SC/NC/GA border 
junction.  This degree of rainfall could lead to landslides/slope 
failures.

The risk of land slips as well as scattered to numerous flash 
flood events extends across the Moderate Risk area encompassing 
terrain of northeast GA, northwest SC, and the remainder of 
western NC.  A broad area of 4-8" is expected.  A broader Slight 
Risk encompasses where rain bands could set up across the FL Big 
Bend early and SC during the morning/afternoon as well as areas 
which have received 200-400% of their two week average rainfall 
near the Fall Line in VA and MD, and includes the D.C. area.  
Impacts across PA and NY should be mitigated by below average 
rainfall over the past couple of weeks.

 

I do not like the sound of this. 

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It's not often that we have a tornado watch in the high country.



Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021 TORNADO WATCH 444 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC021-023-045-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149-161-175-199- 172300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0444.210817T1440Z-210817T2300Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUNCOMBE BURKE CLEVELAND HAYWOOD HENDERSON JACKSON MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY $$


Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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35 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

It's not often that we have a tornado watch in the high country.



Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021 TORNADO WATCH 444 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC021-023-045-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149-161-175-199- 172300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0444.210817T1440Z-210817T2300Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUNCOMBE BURKE CLEVELAND HAYWOOD HENDERSON JACKSON MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY $$


Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

No kidding and we haven't even seen the worst of it yet.

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2 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said:

Rainfall Totals Sun 10am - Tues 11am

northwest Transylvania County

Cold Creek - 10.59"
Balsam Grove FD - 8.9"
Rosman - 6.72"

southern Jackson County

Rock Bridge - 9.13"
Wolf Creek (lake) - 8.31"
Robinson Creek - 5.39"

southern Haywood County

Cruso - 7.64"

Data: FIMAN/NC EM

Very impressive to say the least.  Whatever drought that may have crept in is looong gone. 

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26 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said:

Rainfall Totals Sun 10am - Tues 11am

northwest Transylvania County

Cold Creek - 10.59"
Balsam Grove FD - 8.9"
Rosman - 6.72"

southern Jackson County

Rock Bridge - 9.13"
Wolf Creek (lake) - 8.31"
Robinson Creek - 5.39"

southern Haywood County

Cruso - 7.64"

Data: FIMAN/NC EM

I’m up to 9.25 since sunday. 

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